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THE CHASE LOUNGE

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Posted: #76
Moth, that is making sense about the amount of points. Especially if a team is favored by double digits and then wins by 25. Not as much of a beatdown. Do whatever you think will be the best. Am I correct that there has been only 1 loss on side chase and I know of at least 1 on the over. I don't play the over religiously as the side.

As posted earlier in thread, next NBA chase plays will be GM2 (Hou fade) CHICAGO and GM2 (Mia fade) OKC. Recover losses from Mem vs Hou in GM1 and Utah vs Mia in GM1 plus 1% or 1 unit profit.

If you are tailing these plays you may want to keep a log so you will know how much you have lost on previous game, etc. I have mine written down and don't know how to post a spreadsheet and therefore there is not one! The chase record so far is 31-3 with 17 in a row.

Angle out, have a happy holiday everyone even though I have to work today, I will have the day off on Christmas day.
 
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Posted: #77
MERRY CHRISTMAS you'all   
 
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Posted: #78

Ok, I remember now, you bet extra on the second and third play of the same chase...you hit by the 3rd, you win overall...thanks, Angle...Merry Xmas to all-finally got a avatar...we'll never see hockey again but we won the last season....

Lakers look better finally and have major revenge tomorrow but Xmas home teams usually suck...I'm definitely on OKC tomorrow...will see about the Lakers and Clips...

 
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Posted: #79

Hoya, are you getting thesame vibe that USC isn't all that excited about playing their bowl game?

Your take also on UCLA. Thanks!

 
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Posted: #80

 Am I correct that there has been only 1 loss on side chase and I know of at least 1 on the over. I don't play the over religiously as the side.

YES! and it was a wierd one where the fisrt game clashed with another beatdown play. OKC

something like 17 - 1 sides only

 
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Posted: #81

correction 17 - 2

Miami

 
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Posted: #82

maddix totals chases 2-0 with 1 in progress

under boston chase

gm 2 under 187.5

 
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Posted: #83
Merry xmass to u all! GL on a great day!
 
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Posted: #84
I'm on the Nets at least -3. I remember a tweet from mjnorman he had Nets GM1 before we went on vacation. This would be game 2 if he is still on it.

I hope somebody tailed my pick on SMU last night. Wire-to-wire.

What a nailbiter! 22-0 at half and ended 43-10.

MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!

Will be back later to update lines on CHI and OKC. Both are GM2 fades of their opponents HOU and MIA>
 
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Posted: #85
I tailed awdamaddix and Moth on Nets/Bos under but I got 185. My chase record correction 30-3 (not 31-3) with 17 in a row before today.

No update on lines yet but if you have to bet early it looks like Chicago will be -4 (unofficial) and OKC buy to +4 (unofficial). Both are GM2 fade of HOU and MIA.

If I had to leave and go somewhere before the update this is what I would do but still unofficial. Up to you!
 
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Posted: #86
Moth, due to complexity and situations that could arise as you expressed on OT fade, would u mind posting what games you are playing with these and if the game is GM1, GM2, etc? The same for the under if you are chasing. Thanks
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by Moth61:

A couple of things I'm looking into. What was the net beatdown considering the pointspread. If the Clippers were 6 point favorites and won by 26, is that really a beatdown?

Also, what happens when the same two beatdown teams meet again?

Also, filtering out losers, which will take some time because I have to go back and see what their records were when they played.

So far I have the following for Christmas Day, someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

Brooklyn ( Boston OT fade but on 12/21/12  - lots of rest) and Under

New York (Laker OT fade on 12/23/12) and Under

Chicago (Houston beatdown fade on 12/22/12) and Over

Denver (Clipper beatdown fade on 12/23/12) and Over

 



Moth thx for early update.

My thought on OT fade. I like the way it worked with fading MILW vs CLE with Milwaukee on a back to back.

How about we fade any team off an OT game and playing on a back to back? That would cut down on the number of plays and possibility of conflicts with other systems such as 25 pt beatdowns, etc.

I'm thinking of maybe not chasing these, just fade the team in their next game after OT as long as back to back. I'm thinking that rest will offset the OT fade advantage. Or if we do chase, chase this situation only. No chasing of totals or teams with rest after OT game. The problem I see with chasing is let's say both teams in OT game have another game the next day at the same time, you could not chase. I'm thinking just straight bets and maybe hit high percentage. Any thoughts?

Perhaps GO_Nads or someone who can do a query for this year (as last year was f*cked up due to compressed schedule) of this situation. I'm thinking we can win a higher percentage this way, but of course the oddsmaker will probably have OT fatigue factored into the line.

Moth, if you have already backchecked this I would love to know what you have found out. I am just now starting to really think about this and obviously you are way ahead of me or you would not be considering this system!
 
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Posted: #88

first half boston looked a little shaky, but looks great now.

next totals chase, lakers over tonight, sorry didn't post earlier.

I have 211

 
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Posted: #89

also, titans are 5-0 ats after losing a game of 30+ since 2006.

theyre playing jags home with a line of -4

warning, these nfl plays that i love so much and played the most units on, lost twice for me in the past two weeks. be careful following! but if you're going to, get the line while its good

 
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Posted: #90
White Christmas in north Texas!

Official Lines...(fade HOU GM2) CHI -4
                      (fade MIA GM2) OKC +3
 
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Posted: #91

Angle, here are the OT results since beginning of the season:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArtvW2coXCHsdEpsNzVuQm40N2hwVkxKZlp5Vl9yOVE

The losses would acually be wins for us because of the fade.

Just dabbling with it now and gretaly appreciate your thoughts.

But back to back are very rare, Home/away to consider.

Time for family, Merry Christmas.

Thanks AW, tailed you on Boston Under.

 
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Posted: #92

one last thought for OT

Opponents are beating post OT teams avr 98 - 96.5. all 4 qtrs are very close. maybe filter out favored opponents, or play opponents getting so many points.

 
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Posted: #93
Thanks Moth for the new info!
 
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Posted: #94

added, clippers over chase

gm1 over 203

 
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Posted: #95

bobcats fade mia gm3i

I see +10.5, gonna wait for line change or take it?

 
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Posted: #96

bos under gm2 hits

lac over gm1 hits

maddix totals chase plays now 4-0

next is gm 2 lakers over

single playing jazz-4

 
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Posted: #97
Fade Mia GM3 of 3 CHA +11
Fade Hou GM3 of 3 MINN -4

Official lines. 1% or 1 unit profit play.

Brutal loss with OKC last night, thanks to refs.
 
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Posted: #98
Might be a good spot for a parlay or teaser with two game 3 plays.

 
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Posted: #99

Beatdown plays

Minny -5.5 , 2 units

Memphis -9, over 183, 1 unit each

Toronto +13, Over 200, 1 unit each

Knicks -2.5, Over 199, 1 unit each

System not so hot so bet accordingly. BOL

 

 

 
 
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Posted: #100

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArtvW2coXCHsdEpsNzVuQm40N2hwVkxKZlp5Vl9yOVE#gid=0

spreadsheet link

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