Today Is Thursday, And This Card Looks Like Crap

15-6 +11.6 units

Starting to faulter. Had a really small losing day on Tuesday. Had a bigger losing today on Wednesday. This is why I say to NEVER tail someone. I'm happy to give you my insight on any game...but it's just to HELP you make YOUR OWN decision. Other than that...nothing much going for me today.

Dodgers -1.5 +115
Risking 2 units to win 2.3 units
I think Billingsley stops the bleeding here. No way the Pirates sweep the Dodgers right? Well...maybe they do...maybe they don't. I know that's a bad way to choose plays...but I think they avoid it. We know Billingsley is a solid starter. Last season, Billingsley had his first 4+ ERA season. I think that may have been his "sophmore slump" seeing that he pitched 60+ more innings in 08 than in 07. I think he actually has an ERA around 3.20-3.40 this season...which would qualify as an ace on some teams. But enough about predictions. In 90 at bats against Maholm...the Dodgers have 31 hits, 3 homers, 13 RBIs, 17 walks, 7 strikeouts, a batting average of .344 and an OBP of .440. Pretty impressive.
Belliard      .294 (5-17)         2 HR...2 RBI
Furcal        .385 (5-13)         1 HR...3 RBI
Martin        .300 (3-10)                   1 RBI
Johnson     .556 (5-9)
Kemp         .375 (3-8)                    1 RBI
Ethier         .333 (2-6)                    1 RBI
Manny        .400 (2-5)                    1 RBI
Loney         .000 (0-4)                    2 RBI

So...if all works out the way it's supposed to. The Dodgers should win...and by more than 1 run.

Cardinals -108
Risking 2.16 units to win 2 units
Well...Penny is hit or miss here. Either Dave Duncan turned him around...or he'll be the guy who pitched in Boston. Now...being back in the National League instantly makes him better. It works that way for just about everybody. I don't expect a shutout from him. But to give up 3 runs in 5-6 innings would work for me personally. And that's what I expect. The reason why giving up 3 runs works is this...in 209 at bats against Bronson Arroyo...the Cards have 64 hits, 7 homers, 24 RBIs, 16 walks, 31 Ks,  a batting average of .306 and an OBP of .357. Should I break it down a bit more?
Pujols        .327 (16-49)       3 HR...11 RBI
Ludwick     .235 (8-34)         1 HR...3 RBI
Lopez        .448 (13-29)       2 HR...2 RBI
Schumaker .280 (7-25)                  1 RBI
Molina        .292 (7-24)                  1 RBI
Holliday      .167 (2-12)
Ryan          .417 (5-12)
Rasmus      .444 (4-9)          1 HR...2 RBI

That kinda does it for me. Arroyo was a lot better than his stats indicate last season. He had a few games where he gave up a ton of runs but for the most part. Had quality starts. However...his 4.88 ERA last season in Day games is kind of alarming. He pitched in 9 day games (59 innings) and gave up 32 runs while having a 2-4 record. On top of that...he's 8-13 with a 5.04 ERA in Day games over the past 3 seasons AND has a 5.26 ERA in April over the past 3 seasons. I can really see the Cards scoring 8-10 runs in this one. With that being said...my final play is...

Cardinals/Reds Over 8.5 -108
Risking 2.16 units to win 2 units
Basically...everything you need is in the previous writeup.

If you have any questions...please feel free to ask. These are my 3 plays for the day. I could possibly add more if I find an angle but so far...this is it. I'll be back in a bit to give a few stats.

BOL All. Have A Great Day.

Quote Originally Posted by Steal:

cards/phils parlay

Nationals v Kendrick:

Zimmerman    .545 (6-11)      1 HR...2 RBI
Harris            .400 (4-10)      1 HR...2 RBI
Tavarez          .400 (4-10)                1 RBI
Willingham     .333 (3-9)        1 HR...3 RBI
Dunn             .143 (1-7)         1 HR...2 RBI
Kennedy        .333 (2-6)
Guzman         .333 (1-3)                  1 RBI

I'm not saying the Phills are a bad play...but just giving you a deeper look.

Mariners v Anderson:

Sweeney      .467 (7-15)        1 HR...3 RBI
Lopez           .200 (3-15)
Gutierrez      .231 (3-13)
Ichiro            .667 (6-9)
Figgins         .375 (3-8)                    1 RBI
Johnson        .250 (1-4)                    2 RBI

So true. And Kendrick developed a cutter so he's kind of a different pitcher now.

Figures. I did take that into consideration that he would sit though. But I never make my plays based on 1 guy anyway. As long as Kemp, Ethier and Furcal are in there...this won't be a contest.

Quote Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

sparky,

completely blindly tailed tonight on the pirates game under


my card has the STL v CIN over 8.5 tomorrow as well

Well I'm glad you won...but I still don't suggest it simply because if I start going on a downward spiral...people like to point the finger at everyone but themselves.

Sparky, what do you think about Seattle/Oakland o/u 8?

I am leaning under 8...

I'm leaning over because of how well Figgins and Ichiro hit Anderson. If they both live up to their numbers and get on base in the first...that could rattle Anderson for a bit. And Fister...I don't even know what to say about him. However...this game is being played in Oakland. Both teams do have trouble scoring at times. But even though I lean towards the over...I wouldn't touch an A's over with a 10 foot pole unless there is a serious trend going for them.

This is why I say to NEVER tail someone.

You got that right, Sparky. I got burned badly by tailing others too often. Have to blame myself.

took cincy

good luck with ur plays. prob gonna play the dodger rl once my book puts up those lines.