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2016 NBA PLAYOFFS ................................................

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Posted: #326
Warriors/OKC - OVER 219 (-103) --- 2.06 units to win 2 units
 
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Posted: #327
Warriors/OKC - 2cd half OVER 113 (-120) --- 1.2 units to win 1 unit
 
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Posted: #328


Good luck
 
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Posted: #329
Lol I changed my pick from Warriors & under to the over because of your play lol it's all good stupid people will hate on a play that they tail but you are good, that's why I changed my play but I'm not mad at all!!! I still look forward to your play!!!! Keep the winners coming!!!!
 
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Posted: #330
totals 0-2, lost 3.26
 
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Posted: #331
2016 NBA FINALS....................................

PR I........

Warriors 11.34
Cavs 5.34

Warriors by 6

PR II.......

Warriors 55.57
Cavs 53.85

Warriors by 1.72


Here's the Deal.................................

Teams better by 1.25 in PR I are 21-4 (84%) winning the series since 1980
Teams better by .75 in PRII are 24-5 (82.8%) at winning the series since 1980
 
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Posted: #332
Both PR I and PR II combined..............................

Warriors by 7.72

Teams over 4 are 14-2 (87.5%) at winning the series .

When the team over 4 is the home team , this 14 times since 1980 they have started the series 2-0 SU  8 of the 14 times (57.1%).

But only 5 of the 14 started the series 2-0 ATS, (35.7%).
 
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Posted: #333
Shooting Efficiency, when we factor in 2 pt, 3 pt, FT, TO.

Warriors 50.66 - 44.84 = 5.82%
Cavs 48.1 - 46.05 = 2.05 %

Better defensive team by 1% is 11-2 since 1980
Better differential by 1% is 15-3 since 1980

Better offensive team  by 1% is 14-10 since 1980
 
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Posted: #334
Rebounding.....................................

Cavs 51.8%
Warriors 49.75%

Cavs better by 2.05

Better rebounding team by 1% is 11-4 since 1980
 
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Posted: #335
Shooting Efficiency has the highest correlation to winning and the highest predictive value going forward.



When we combined the mathmatIcal probabilities of PR II with shooting efficiency..............................................

Team better by .75 in PR II and 1% or better in shooting efficiency is........................................12-1 (92.3%) at winning the series since 1980

The only team to lose......you got it, LBJ and his 2011 Heat, when LBJ did not want the ball in crunch time because he could not solve the Mavs defense.


These 13 teams were................................12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS game 1's

After a SU loss.......18-3 SU and 13-8 ATS

Close-out game .....12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS

Started the series 2-0 SU ......6 of 13 times
 
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There have been 12 ....... 65 game winners out-shoot their opps in FG% by 3.5% or better...........11 of the 12 won the title.

The only team failed............yep it's LBJ and his 2009 Cavs.


There have been 14 ......... 65 game winners win the title, 13 of the 14 teams won the finals in 6 games or fewer......

The only team that failed.....yes sir LBJ and his 2013 Heat who came a whisker away from becoming the 2cd  65 game winner out-shot opps by 3.5 % and fail to win the title.



 
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Posted: #337
LBJ is one of the greatest underperformers in NBA Finals history in the most important areas of the game that produce winning teams....FG%.

In 2013 in shot 12.5% below his regular season ave in 5 of the 7 NBA Finals games the main reason his team is the only 65 game winner to be taken to a 7th game.

Last season he shot a dreadful 39% VS Warriors.

The pundits are happy to tell us all about his numerous triple doubles, yea ok, they mean something, so he's a all-around player, but what they fail to see is he has repeatedly played poorly in the single most important area that leads to winning ....FG %

Correlation to winning.....................

FG % -- 79%
Rebounds - 69%
Assist 65%

LBJ excells in the less meaningful areas and folds up camp in the most important area.....FG %.

The evidence seems to indicate LBJ thrives on cupcakes and folds like a pop-tent VS the better teams on the biggest stage.
 
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Posted: #338
Warriors to win the series over Cavs ( -210) --- 10.5 units to win 5 units..............best bet play

If the Cavs win either game 1 or game 2 we back the Warriors again with a 5 unit play getting a better price.
 
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Posted: #339
MY LINES...........................................

Warriors -10 over Cavs in game 1

My lines when the same team is better in both PR's and a 1 pt diff to closing line...................8-5 game 1.

Game 2 we back only teams off ATS loss.....................4-1 ATS.



Warriors come in off 3 SU and  ATS wins, not the best spot for Warriors.

Cavs come in off a 38 pt blow-out win and then a cover and a 26 pt win.

Very bad spot for Cavs, we lost only 1 game past 2 years in thnis spot when my lines fades a team like Cavs.

Warriors -5 (-120) over Cavs --- 6 units to win 5 units
Warriors -3 (-120) 1st half --- 3.6 units to win 3 units
 
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Posted: #340
Claw best of luck,once again great write up. I took GS plus 140 for the championship prior to game 7 VS OKC.  Let's go out strong on the NBA!!
 
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Posted: #342
Teams off a game 7 win are only 5-5 straight up and 2-7-1 as a home favorite ATS game one since 2002.

If that team off a game 7 win wins game one at home as a favorite, they are 2-2 straight up and against the spread game 2. 

I like your analysis of Golden State from a historical perspective, but my belief is that Golden State loses one of it's first two home games before going on to win the title.

Good fortune going forward.
 
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Posted: #343
The other day Doug Collins said his son coached LBJ on the Olympic team , and his son told him LBJ is not into attention to detail to do things the same way as the other great players.


Maybe explains   why he has had failures at the highest level of competition.
 
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Posted: #344
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Teams off a game 7 win are only 5-5 straight up and 2-7-1 as a home favorite ATS game one since 2002.

If that team off a game 7 win wins game one at home as a favorite, they are 2-2 straight up and against the spread game 2. 

I like your analysis of Golden State from a historical perspective, but my belief is that Golden State loses one of it's first two home games before going on to win the title.

Good fortune going forward.


When the road team is the better rebounding team they cover game 1 or 2 I think it's like 12 of 14 teams covered one of the 1st 2 games and will win SU most of those covers.

Cavs are the better rebounding team.

Warriors having trailed in the series and having to fight hard to get back and win will not likely put themselves in that spot again, and after losing game 1 of previous series teams like the Warriors will not go back to back series losing game 1 very often.

Very few teams in history if any have come back to win a series down 2-1 in back to back series, if Warriors are going to win series highly unlikely they will trail in this series.

Warriors also playing with a chip on their shoulders with people doubting them last year because of injuries and now people talking how Cavs are healthy and LBJ talking about Curry winning MVP, Warriors might just bring it to these Cavs in historical fashion..............don;'t be surprised when historical teams do historical things in the playoffs....in fact you should expect it.
 
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Posted: #345
Warriors -1.5 games over Cavs (+105) --- 3 units to win 3.15 units
 
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Posted: #346
Good luck Claw.  Great season and posts! I think you have the right bets for Game 1. 
 
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Posted: #347
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Warriors -1.5 games over Cavs (+105) --- 3 units to win 3.15 units

Wow!  Really like that bet... great value!


The Dude imbibes
 
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Posted: #348
I respect claw a ton but like the superbowl brotha, its not as easy as just going with the numbers. The big games are more than nunbers buddy. I respect ya for holding tough with your numbers approach. It works; I just think it backfires again like it did to both carolina teams in the NFL and NCAA ball tourney. Good luck bud.
 
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Posted: #349
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

The other day Doug Collins said his son coached LBJ on the Olympic team , and his son told him LBJ is not into attention to detail to do things the same way as the other great players.


Maybe explains   why he has had failures at the highest level of competition.

Lebron has had failures at the highest level of competition? I'd sure like to have his kind of failures. Six straight NBA finals, two world championships. Last year he won two games playing by himself. Lebron has to win every game he plays or people call him a loser. If he was with the Sixers this year they'd be in the finals.
 
 
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Posted: #350
Quote Originally Posted by RCDirect:


Lebron has had failures at the highest level of competition? I'd sure like to have his kind of failures. Six straight NBA finals, two world championships. Last year he won two games playing by himself. Lebron has to win every game he plays or people call him a loser. If he was with the Sixers this year they'd be in the finals.

LeBron makes it to the Finals every year because he was smart enough to stay in the Eastern Conf.  If he had come West, not so likely.  Sure he'd take the Sixers to the Finals...because the Eastern Conf SUCKS.

Moreover, he didn't deserve the 2012-13 title.  He has only really earned ONE title.  In 2012-13 he was down 3 games to 2, and was behind 94-89 with 28 seconds to go in Game 6...the Spurs and the officials handed that game to the Heat. He did not earn that title.
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