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2016 NBA PLAYOFFS ................................................

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Posted: #351
Great job sir!
 
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Posted: #352
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

I respect claw a ton but like the superbowl brotha, its not as easy as just going with the numbers. The big games are more than nunbers buddy. I respect ya for holding tough with your numbers approach. It works; I just think it backfires again like it did to both carolina teams in the NFL and NCAA ball tourney. Good luck bud.

It really is that easy to go with the numbers in some situations and this is one of them.

Like I said, Panthers were in a regression spot, using regular season regression the Panthers would have been a best bet fade, but playoff regression can be different for the very best teams and I pointed that out.

This series is completely different because Cavs are the team in regression mode coming offv 38 pt win then 26 pt win, not sustainable.

Remember, I went 10 straight at one point where my favoritye in a sport made the finals and won 7  of those just using the numbers. I doubt one can do much better then that, but you could picked out the 3 teams who failed to win the title  and say using the numbers is not that easy, I disagree.
 
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Posted: #353
2-0 ATS, won 9 units
 
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Posted: #354
Quote Originally Posted by RCDirect:


Lebron has had failures at the highest level of competition? I'd sure like to have his kind of failures. Six straight NBA finals, two world championships. Last year he won two games playing by himself. Lebron has to win every game he plays or people call him a loser. If he was with the Sixers this year they'd be in the finals.

The reason you will lose backing LBJ is because you look at all the wrong things.
 
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Posted: #355
MY LINES.......................................

Warriors -10 over Cavs game 2.

game we we only back teams coming off an ATS loss.


NBA Finals Version of MY LINES..................................

here we give 2 additional desperation points for each game a team trails in the series untill the close-out game.


Warriors -8 over Cavs game 2


will be back with the history of this version.
 
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Posted: #356
NBA Finals Version of MY LINES...................................................................

10-4 ATS (71.4%) since 1992 with a 1.5 pt diff to closing line.

As of now we have a 1.5 diff , we'll wait-out the line and see if it goes up or down.

I would not bet against the Warriors in game 2 if this line stays at 6.5 or less.  Many here will think Cavs are an almost certain win but I do not think so.

Warriors having trailed 3-1 and dig themselves out of a very tough hole will be ready to take a commanding 2-0 series lead. 

And the Warriors have been disrespected so much by former players, pundits who are stating how Cavs had injuries, LBJ himself talking about Curry's MVP,  what a better way to put all this to rest with a monster game 2 and a dominating performance in the finals.

What makes it all possible is the Warriors are playing on an historical level in the most importat part of the game that leads to winning....shooting efficiency.

I'd be very careful thinking this is an almost certain win for Cavs.

One thing Cavs do have going for them is historically the better rebounding team has gotten a cover in games 1 or 2 a high % of the time even as a road team in the series.

Lean Warriors game 2 at this time.
 
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Posted: #357
Just wanted to kiss your ass claw, thanks for posting. Yours are my favorite statistical posts since Robert fiorio stopped posting, anyone know what happened to that guy
 
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Posted: #358
Lean Warriors in game 2? So claw, the guy who always talks about bounce back and coming down to earth with teams winning multiple games a row? That doesn't come into the equation here? It did with the craptors for you last series who stink yet the cavs are dirt again? Bro, 3 elimination games and 4 wins in a row of COVERING and you are leaning the dubs? Interesting. I can't wait til this is all said and done brotha. I'm not saying you are wrong but if you are a guy plays based off nunbers, this is a play NOT based off numbers. Plain and simple. Much respect here but had to point this out. GL 
 
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Posted: #359
People disrespecting the warriors? EVERYONE has already written off the cavs after one game. Disrespecting curry? I'm sorry but curry is not a better all around player than lebron. Two years and everyone crowns this guy? You don't think lebron could put up those numbers AND actually play some defense? Bro! Seriously? Lebron is his own worst enemy. People made the mistake of comparing him to Mike which nobody is like mike. From there, he goes to 6 finals in a row and we have to talk about a guy who is the so called savior of the league, curry? Here's the problem. With this league so watered down and desperate for a good ole lil guy' to stake claim to being the face of the nba, so many excuses are made for him. I have to hear how curry can play defense in the OKC series when everyone who has watched him, who knows the damn game, knows that is false. I have to hear about his little booboos? Lebron is supposed to pay resoect to this kid? Im no lebron fan but there is no way starting a team i would take curry over lebron. No way. People have lost their minds with this nonsense. Hall of famers who have commented on curry are 100% right? Curry would not have survived in the 80s or 90s. No way. They played perimeter defense back then. There were post games. Teams fouled hard and got away with it. Lebron would have been above average  but curry would be swallowed up. Respect for curry from lebron? Lebron doesn't owe curry a thing bro. You put lebron on the warriors, what do u think you get? Sonething less of what curry has showed? Haaaaaa. It's funny, curry scores 12 points in game 1 yet nobody talks about it. He's already been appointed by the league and the idiot fans as the new king. It makes me want to puke. That showing in itself shows you that Currys team is way better. If lebron throws that number up, all h*ll breaks lose. Let's all wake up please and atop with the selective memories and long term memory loss bs. I could care less about the series but when someone utters that lebron was out of line with comments on curry; he was 100 percent right. He has earned the right to speak freely and just because he is right, people get all poopy because it's lil guy curry he's speaking aboit. The end all, be all, 2 year guy. 
 
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Posted: #360
Cavs off a 38 pt blowout win and then a 26 pt win, far more likely to continue to regress then the Warriors who did not beat the spread by large amounts like the Cavs did.

Warriors have 4 straight wins and covers but it's much different then the Cavs.

OKC off a 28 pt blowout win then a 24 pt win and lost 3 straight to Warriors 

Last season Clippers off a 33 pt win and 25 pt win or some such thing then lost 3 straight to Rockets.

Both OKC and Clippers are in a far more similar spot to Cavs not even close to the Warriors.

Regression plays big off big wins of which the Warriors have none in that 4 game stretch.

When teams string together many covers they do it by not winning big , beating the spread by small amounts.

Remember the regression principle, the further over a teams ave they play the further below they need to play to return back to their ave.

Cavs played exceptionally high over their ave the Warriors by a small amount which is sustainable, the Cavs is not.

It does not matter whether the former players are right or wrong, that has nothing to do with Curry and the Warriors using that talk to motivate themself to dominate the series which according to my PR which has a strong history of success, 12-1 since 1980 says the Warriors certainly are capable of doing.

And it does not matter whether LBJ earned the right to say anything he wants, what matters is, he disrespected Curry and the Warriors and now will pay a heavy price.

What makes it all possible is the fact Warriors are the best team since 1974 the 1st year the league began tracking all the stats needed, in out-shooting their opps in shooting efficiency , 2 pt, 3 pt, FT and TO.


 
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Posted: #361
  Much appreciated as always 
 
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Posted: #362
Game 2.............

Lean Warriors
Lean OVER

Will likely make a play at some point today, let's wait it out a bit longer.
 
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Posted: #363
Good luck Claw, whatever you play.  You're doing really impressive work.  Probably the best on here last month or so.  Keep it up!

 
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Posted: #364
Thanks for all the kind words guys.............let's see if things go our way again tonight ...................
 
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Posted: #365
Warriors/Cavs - OVER 209 (-116) --- 3.48 units to win 3 units

Over 108 (-105) 1st half --- 1.05 units to win 1 unit
 
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Posted: #366
No play on the spread claw? I'm surprised especially after reading your "disrespect" talk. All in good fun here but very surprised to not see you salivating at the Warriors tonite.
 
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Posted: #367
Claw!! Riding this over with u!!
 
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Posted: #368
Warriors -6 over Cavs --- 4.4 units to win 4 units

Warriors -3 1st half --- 2.2 units to win 2 units
 
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Posted: #369
GL Claw I'm sticking with this over. 
 
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Posted: #370
Oh well it's the championship series, GS -6 had to buy it down it went up to 6.5. Let's gets this!!
 
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Posted: #371
Warriors/Cavs - OVER 102 (-118) 2cd half --- 1.18 units to win 1 unit
 
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Posted: #372
We turn a small profit 1st half.

At 102 ...2cd half we have  a total of 198 on the game, 11 points off the game line of 209.
 
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Posted: #373
Nice call Claw. Only person with a normal thought process to take the warriors at home. No way Cavs were gonna win on the road at oracle when they couldn't even beat the raptors on the road.
 
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Posted: #374
Glad I saw your late GS post, over was rough from the start. 
 
 
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Posted: #375
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