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2016 NBA PLAYOFFS ................................................

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Posted: #26
Yes line up to 8, but I think I'll pass but still lean the Pacers.


 
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Posted: #27
OKC line up to 14, I'd lean Mavs but pass on the game with injuries to Dallas.
 
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Posted: #28
1-1 on leans last night.


Hawks -5.71
Spurs -18.39

No plays on my lines at this point.

May take action on Spurs as a largest mismatch team.

Need to look into how they do off big wins.


 
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Posted: #29
Spurs -17.5 over Grizz --- 2.2 units to win 2 units
 
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Posted: #30
 Game --- 4-1 ATS, won 11.7 units
totals ---  0-1, lost 1.1 units

Largest mismatch teams go to 3-0 ATS with Heat up tonight.


MY LINES......................

Heat -5.32
Cavs -10.35
Clippers -7.26

Based on the current lines we have one play on Blazers coming off ATS loss.
 
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Posted: #31
GAME 3's..................................

My Lines......

Rules for game 3 -- we give 4 additional desperation pts to teams trailing 2-0. Series tied 1-1 we back the series winner if we have a strong info to support  series winner, no play otherwise.

We need a 1 pt diff to closing line for a play.


Warriors -4.06
Spurs -6.39
OKC -4.16

Celtics -6.29
Pacers -1.81

Based on current lines we have a play on Celtics and Rockets

OKC AND Pacers tied 1-1, we back series winner which is OKC , pass on the Pacers game.

OKC opens -9, wow, that's a big number, maybe a bit inflated with all the blowout's we've seen.

Will look into a couple of things and then decide.
 
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Posted: #32
Home teams on a very strong 7-1 ATS run and the public % right there with a 7-1 run.

Don't think this will  continue much longer.

Now the public over 80% on Heat which would be the largest % yet in the playoffs if it holds by game time, might be a warning sign telling us the public over-reacting  to this and all the monster blowouts.

The big blowouts were made possible by having 2 teams in ther same season playing on a historical level as 2 of the best teams ever in Warriors and Spurs and that'd be a first.

In a normal year OKC could easily be no. 1 ranked in both PR's.

This is what's leading to these blowouts, strong, powerful teams.
These teams can cover after big blowout wins, but this does not fit the Heat, they are not in this league of those 3 teams.

For the Heat to cover after a 32 pt win is far different and much more difficult then the 2 historical teams like Warriors and Spurs covering after blowouts. 

May pass on the Heat tonight.
 
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Posted: #33
Great job man you explain it very clear, thank you very much!!
I got a question, when you say that we have one play you mean you are betting that (with 5 units) or you always wait for game time?
For example with Blazers right now.
 
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Posted: #34
84% on Miami right now. That....is....crazy! 
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by georgie7:

Great job man you explain it very clear, thank you very much!!
I got a question, when you say that we have one play you mean you are betting that (with 5 units) or you always wait for game time?
For example with Blazers right now.

Blazers for 3 units as of now. Could up it if the public wins both early games and then pounds the Clips, I'd pound the Blazers.

But that's alot of ifs, first let's see how things playout.

We need the Clippers line to be 8.5 or better to have a 3 unit play on Blazers.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

84% on Miami right now. That....is....crazy! 

Down to 77% on Heat, that's still the highest % yet in any playoff game if it holds by game time which it may not.

Previous high was 73% on OKC in game 2 which they lost both SU and ATS.

Cavs now 70%, with the public %'s on a 7-1 run and 10-3 overall, it's almost a certainty that 1 of those 2 high % games will lose and maybe both.

Highly likely the public ends tonight with a losing record of 1-2 or 0-3 .

Unfortunately we don't have any plays falls into this other than on the Blazers but we need a 8.5 line and it appears line dropped back to 8 as of now.
 
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Posted: #37
"Heat by 2.39 over Hornets

In other words, the Heat are much better then their point margin suggest and the Hornets  worse.

Value has an incredible ATS record in the 1st round, last season was Wizards over Raptors and Wiz rolled 4-0 ATS"


Even with this info, no play on Heat?
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Suddath:

"Heat by 2.39 over Hornets

In other words, the Heat are much better then their point margin suggest and the Hornets  worse.

Value has an incredible ATS record in the 1st round, last season was Wizards over Raptors and Wiz rolled 4-0 ATS"


Even with this info, no play on Heat ?

Normally I'd like the Heat in every game and would almost certainly finish with a winning record in the series.

But here may back-down and pass on the game. Hopefully we won't regret passing on the Heat.

Would still have a small lean the Heat here. 
 
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Posted: #39
Public now 66% on Heat, still the highest % game tonight at this point.

Clippers down to -7.5 .
 
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Posted: #40
Line back up to 8.5. Any play amigo on portland?
 
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Posted: #41
Portland +8.5 over Clippers --- 5.5 units to win 5 units
 
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Posted: #42
With Heats win our 2 team series parlay both teams now up 2-0 and looking good so far.

I hate to pass up wins but sometimes might be better to pass on a game they may be in a bad spot.

The value mismatch is just incredible, we will have a value mismatch in the 2cd round as well and other mismatches as well.

Mismatch teams coming off 2 ATS wins are only about 50%, coming off 3 ATS wins are only about 30%.

I suppose it's possible for 1 of the 2 mismatch teams to cover in game between Spurs and Heat with both coming off 2 ATS wins.

Will likely pass on game 3's for those 2 teams.

We'll wait it out, many, many games left and we should look for better, higher % situations.
 
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Posted: #43
in game 3 , 1 of 2 teams, Spurs or Heat could cover. Is what I meant.
 
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Posted: #44
Just my luck, hedged out of Heat before tip off, stayed on Blazers.  They looked horrible last night.  Thanks for the analysis.  Let's bounce back.
 
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Posted: #45
Son of a gun, Blazers did not look so good.

Games --- 4-2 ATS...won 6.2 units
Totals --- 0-1 ATS ....lost 1.1 units

Leans 2-1 ATS

 
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Posted: #46
Will pass on the OKC/Mavs game.

Line just seems inflated based on all the blowouts.

Normally the team to win series wins and covers game 3 but I've never seen a line close to this high.



I've seen no.1 seeds -1 before up to maybe -4. Have even seen some PK's and I think once saw a +1 for a no.1 seed VS a 8 seed.
 
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Posted: #47
Will pass on the Raptors/Pacers game.

Looks like we could have a play on Rocket, +6 at this time.

I'm confident we can finish with a winning record in game 3's.
 
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Posted: #48
Will pass on Warriors/ Rockets game 3. I meant to get the +5.5 or +6 before the anoucement of whether Curry would play. I did not do it so don't feel good about  getting fewer points.

Sometimes it can be difficult keeping up with the 1st round with so many games coming every night.

Next round will be a bit easier.
 
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Posted: #49
I respect your slection plays claw
 
 
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Posted: #50
Boy that was aggravating. All day yesterday I wanted to grab Rockets +6, line was +5.5 and I would have taken the 5.5 but wait out for 6, plenty of time to try and catch 6.

Because it was a win situation if Curry plays we still have a 1 pt diff and play on Rockets, if Curry is out the line likely drops and we get a great line, but waiting for the 6 I just got a bit busy and forgot to grab it before the line dropped.

Happens a few times every year with games coming so fast everyday I miss some plays,  seems every time it happens the play wins, that's the aggravating part.
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