MY LINES...........................................
Pacers -1.81 over Raptors
Hornets -6.68 over Heat
OKC -4.16 over Mavs
Blazers -4.74 over Clippers
May be going into work today but should be home by the OKC game.
Will back the Pacers for 3 units if line is Pacers - a half point or less
If the line goes Pacers +2 or higher will go 5 units on Pacers.
Heat coming off a 25 pt blowout win , then an ATS win and now my line is against the Heat.
Hornets are 6th in home record but only tied for 13th, 14th, and 15th with the 2 other 8 seeds for road record.
Hornets have the largest diff between home and road record at 12 games, 30 to 18.
Well, Spurs are 13 game diff but that's different in the sense Spurs are historical at home and only very good on the road, the Spurs big difference is not reflecting poor road play and very good home play like the Hornets.
Quess who's also a 12 game difference ? ......................Blazers
The Heat are the largest value mismatch which has been a very good method BLINDLY backing the team in every game, which almost certainly would produce a winning record.
We could try and pick our spots or just back them every game and take the almost certain winning ATS record.
I don't think I'd take them here in this spot, had we taken the Heat in game 2 and got the win and been 2-0 then maybe we could ride the Heat again and if we lose still 2-1.
We don't want to pass up a win then play a diff stratergy , this is not a good way to go about things, we want to stay the coarse with the same stratergy as game 2 which is picking our spots.
We either back them blindly every game or we pick our spots, the worst thing we can do is to change stratergy after a loss as the info has a way of regressing and you take this factor off the table when change stratergy.
And remember largest mismatch teams are only about 50% off back to back ATS wins. and may be even worse off 25 pt blowout wins and then covering.
We'll take the Hornets for 1 or 2 units, if the line drops we take 2 units.
At this time I'd lean Mavs and Blazers but should make it make for our plays.
We should be able to pull a winning ATS record for the day. Could be a small one or a very nice one.
to continued success in the future
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