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2016 NBA PLAYOFFS ................................................

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Posted: #76
Blazers +1.5 over Clippers --- 2.2 units to win 2 units
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

2-0 , won 4 units

I layed out how to play the 2 games, if Pacers were -.5 or less in closing line then a 3 unit play on Pacers, if line goes to Pacers +2 then a 5 unit play on Pacers.

We take the Hornets for 1 unit unless line drops then we take Hornets for 2 units.

Tommorrow I will be at work again, I will lay out how to play the games before I leave.

You can also check the NBA Contest on the site, my picks will be in there, only diff is the best bet in contest is 5 units, my best bets are 10 units, so I cut the units in half for the contest.

In other words if I make a 2 unit play in contest, it's a 4 unit play






Great job, Claw!!!!!   
FIND JESUS / GO DAWGS / NOTHING IS WHAT IT APPEARS
 
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Posted: #78
Nice day yesterday.........3-0 ATS won 6 units

Playoffs to Date ...............9-3 ATS, won 13.75 units
Totals ...............................0-1, lost 1.1 units
Leans................................4-1


Was pretty confident we'd end with winning record yesterday, lines seemed way off based on 1st 2 games.

Today I don't see the big advantages of yesterday.

Will be at work today so here's how we play things.



MY LINES..........................................game 4's

Series at 2-1 we give 4 pts to home team. Series at 3-0 we don't use my lines as much, stronger powerhouse teams will get the closeout on the first try most of the time.

Spurs -10.39
Warriors -8.06
Celtics -2.29
Cavs -2.35


Spurs in a closeout game will highly likely get it done SU, but it's alot of pts to cover and the public pushing the line higher.

Spurs a largest mismatch team , but we'll pick our spots on those teams as we've been doing and pass on this game instead of blindly taking those teams.

Would lean Spurs , teams with all these injuries will catchup to them much like the Mavs last night.


Warrior/Rockets game we need Rockets +9.5 or higher spread to have on play on the Rockets for 2 units.

Should be home by the Celtics/Hawks game, but we have a play if Celtics -1 or smaller line for 3 units.




 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Blazers +1.5 over Clippers --- 2.2 units to win 2 units

Nice pick there, I went for Portland -3,5 + OKC ML   so good man
 
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Posted: #80
Will pass on Cavs/Pistons game 4.
 
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Posted: #81
Well, we ended with 1 play on Celtics with the line closing at Celtics +1, game in OT now.

Warriors line closed at -8.5 so no play as we needed -9.5.

And we did hit our lean on Spurs............5-1 now with leans.
 
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Posted: #82
claw
 
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Posted: #83
 
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Posted: #84
1-0 ATS, won 3 units
Leans 1-0


Playoffs to Date --- 10-3 ATS, won 16.75 units
Totals --- 0-1, lost 1.1 units
Leans 5-1 



MY LINES ..................................................

Hornets -2.68 over Heat
OKC -12.16 over Mavs
Blazers -.74 over Clippers


Will be back before game time with the plays.

I should be home by at least 6:30 eastern time, possibly before.

We'll be on Heat and over,and Blazers.

OKC in a closeout game but off a 29 pt blowout win then cover, not a good spot to back OKC, will pass on the game, may lean Mavs if line stays -14 or higher.
 
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Posted: #85
Celtics game yesterday saw a huge line movement to Hawks, opening at Celtics -3 then closing at Celtics +1, a 4 pt movement.

In a case like this would have upped my play a couple of units.


The public %'s are still on a monster roll, going 3-1 ATS yesterday with the 2 largest % games of the playoffs both winning on Spurs and Warriors.

This may be indication they have peaked.

They are 23-7 ATS in the playoffs thus far. 

We'd be opposite every game tonight at this point anyway.
 
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Posted: #86
Heat +3 (-120) over Hornets --- 8.4 units to win 7 units

Heat/Hornets over 194.5 --- 3.3 units to win 3 units
 
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Posted: #87
Would lean Mavs and the over
 
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Posted: #88
Thanks for insight
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Heat +3 (-120) over Hornets --- 8.4 units to win 7 units

Heat/Hornets over 194.5 --- 3.3 units to win 3 units

Ouch!!!!

 
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Posted: #90
didn't understand your play on miami +3? according to your system their was not a 1 point difference in the vegas line and the line your numbers gave

explain?
 
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Posted: #91
Blazers +4 (-120) over Clippers --- 3.6 units to win 3 units
 
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Posted: #92
Brutal 1 pt loss with the Heat. 

Heat were a largest mismatch off a SU loss. Now off 2 SU losses.
 
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Posted: #93
so the clippers of a SU loss is different?

 
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Posted: #94
Forgive me, just trying to better understand your system. Been following this thread all playoffs and am thoroughly impressed.
 
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Posted: #95
1-1 ATS , lost 5.4 units
totals 0-1, lost 3.3 units
leans 2-0



PLAYOFFS to DATE --- 11-4 ATS, won 11.35 units
TOTALS -----------------------0-2 ATS, lost 4.4 units
LEANS-------------------------7-1 


 
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Posted: #96
MY LINES...................................................

Raptors -6.19 over Pacers
Hawks -5.71 over Celtics


Hawks line up -7 gives us a 1 pt diff on Celtics, have another indicator on Celtics as well but have an indicator on Hawks to, will look into a few things .

May have a play on a total tonight, will post later if I do.
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by thelaw88:

so the clippers of a SU loss is different?


Heat are a largest mismatch team in the key stats, Clippers are not.

Go back and read the first few post.
 
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Posted: #98
Should we take Miami now for the 5th game? Line is going down... And after 2 SU losses and largest mismatch team we should take them, am I wrong? Thanks
 
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Posted: #99
GAME 1....................Spurs VS OKC

MY LINES....................

Spurs -6.5..............looks like line opened 6.5, I'd lean Spurs at this time.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by georgie7:

Should we take Miami now for the 5th game? Line is going down... And after 2 SU losses and largest mismatch team we should take them, am I wrong? Thanks

Yes
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