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6-0 posted plays... Reverse line moves

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Posted: #651
Morning Gents...hope the weekend was profitable for all except the DBags...

So, how's the contest doing? I didn't pop in at all over the weekend and I'd rather not scroll through the thread w/ BDouche on the loose...
 
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Posted: #652

Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:

i wouldn't go that far, butwho knows... maybe someone saw lebron getting wated last night at liv...lol

Heat on a west coast road trip, slept in utah last night, doubt the boys were out parting, Lebron and company 1-2 on road trip focused to keep the offensive momentum rolling after a blow out victory and look to get to 2-2 on the west coast swing against a team they previously beat by nearly 20 at home.  Vegas knows Heat will win, you know Heat will win, the only thing attracting money to the Jazz is a suspicious line.  Jazz have played four games in six days and will put up a 14 in one of the frames to secure a Heat win and cover.

Heat 2.5

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Posted: #653
Jazz, Grizzlies, Wolves and Suns are the rlm picks I am seeing guys any others I am missing?  I know the caves and bobcats look right too but its so hard to trust those teams
 
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Posted: #654
Cavs I meant
 
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Posted: #655
Utah and Pho both look like rlm with at least 1 point movement and heavy betting #'s.

 
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Posted: #656
not well nuggs, think i started forcing plays over the weekend, just to get them out early... shook that off, looking for a great night tonight... dougie has just popped in and dropped his picks. no negativity whatsoever, since friday.

   ulwen, i know exactly what you mean. when you see teams like okc, spurs, heat etc. it's hard to go against them with small line on crappy teams. for instance, that hornets plus 2.5 vs rockets. didn't make sense, but hornets won. i try my best to just look at team a and team b, but it's tough too fool ur mind to do that
 
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Posted: #657
RLM is not all when we cap games in NBA. i DO trust NBA is all about matchup, matchup, that's all. nevertheless, Suns will be the play maybe, sounds funny ridiculosly. guys here seem to lean Jazz, however, board competenece between these two teams are pretty same. the key is if M Chalmers do tomorrow, he can have it all in this matchup. plus, Clippers Under can be the best among other option.
 
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Posted: #658
Quote Originally Posted by Willthethrill73:

Jazz, Grizzlies, Wolves and Suns are the rlm picks I am seeing guys any others I am missing?  I know the caves and bobcats look right too but its so hard to trust those teams


already locked mine in on sac ML (part of system play, calvs may cover, but hopefully dont win)
 
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Posted: #659
My plays tonight will be PHX +5 and under on LAC-MEM. Line opened at 195 now at 191 with 84% hitting the OVER lolwut?
However, its still quite early and some big money might move the lines again before the game. I rushed it yesterday with NOH and CLE, both looked like rlm then the line moved right before the game..
 
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Posted: #660
Quote Originally Posted by twfc:

My plays tonight will be PHX +5 and under on LAC-MEM. Line opened at 195 now at 191 with 84% hitting the OVER lolwut?
However, its still quite early and some big money might move the lines again before the game. I rushed it yesterday with NOH and CLE, both looked like rlm then the line moved right before the game..


this is not my thread, so hesitant a bit. however, you MUST think matchup first dude. if 'seem-to-be' RLM is on, and guys know what it means, bookies will be dead already. it is not that simple & easy dude. think wide & open when you cap games. if you keep following those movement blindly, you will be in trouble. i'm not talking about RLM is BS, don't get me wrong.
 
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Posted: #661
you're right duranizm... i don't only bet based on rlm.. i cap other games too. i took patsand knicks under pretty heavy yesterday with no rlm present. 

the theory that i trust in rlm is that we're following the big money or sharps on what they are playing. do they always win, no. if they did they'd be called bill gates..lol

but it seems that they win a lot more than they lose and if we can mimic that we'll be in good enough shape to cover the losses from our own bets..he, he, he.

like i've said before, this thread was started as an experiment in rlm plays and to get feedback from other rlm players. i try to never stop learning. i started off insanely hot and didn't cool until this weekend. 

i think i'm going to lay off of betting nba games based on rlm on weekends that, i would guess, most of the money is on nfl playoffs or superbowl. it takes o much less money to move lines when no one's betting the game.

also, i try not to look at records, or matchup teams when i bets soley based on rlm. my thoughts are that vegas has already thought of every angle imaginable and reflected that in their line. 
 
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Posted: #662
again even though Miami is strugglin on road, the line movement is not necessairly RLM, they will be missing James Jones tonight and Battier didnt participate in shoot around due to a sore Hamstring he also will likely not play tonight
 
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Posted: #663
not calling anything too early today... will have picks around 5-6 pm..
 
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Posted: #664
www.proplayerstatus.com for must up todate updates on injuries, rosters etc
 
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Posted: #665
i've hung out with james jone a few times and though he's a really cool kid, he's not making lines move on heat games. battier is a big defensive presence for the heat, no need for his offense now that they have miller healthy and ray allen, the celtic traitor. i'm not convinced battier is a line mover either... plus he hasn't played for a while now
 
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Posted: #666
there must be massive, massive money coming in on the grizz game. line opened at grizz -3, dropped all the way to -1.5, now back to -2.5 all while over 70 percent on clippers... also, o/u opened at 185.5 at 3 pm yesterday, stayed right around there until 1 pm today, but has dropped 5 pts since, i'lm getting 180.5 now...looks like someone's punding the grizz and the under. with a 5 point move though, i think we might have missed the boat on the under. but there could be huge value on the grizz, since we can get in on almost the original line. never been so tempted to lay 2-3 units on an rlm play. might just leave them as the last team in any parlays i play today and let it ride... thoughts/
 
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Posted: #667
I think memphis is the play either way, but are we aware chris paul isnt playing? Id almost prefer it if he played as lac might come out more focused without their best player
 
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Posted: #668
utah and phoenix tonight
 
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Posted: #669
didnt know cp3 is out. hmmm, and rudy? best if we not touch this game
 
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Posted: #670
hey i just saw this "Memphis is 13-4 ATS against teams with a winning record this season and a perfect 7-0 ATS against teams that have won 70% of their games." Can any of you guys confirm that? I cant find stats on this for some reason 
 
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Posted: #671
chris paul is out... not so much rlm, but like grizz
 
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Posted: #672
Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:



 my thoughts are that vegas has already thought of every angle imaginable and reflected that in their line. 



 
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Posted: #673
keeping an eye on jazz, suns, suns under... maybe bobcats...
 
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Posted: #674
if we play the system, it would be the first time i will be fading okc and miami same night...lmao

 
 
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Posted: #675
i hear yuh sabe... i'm still gonna ride this system out, though
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