Accuscore NBA Thread for March

3/19 (3/18 U.S.)

Toronto Raptors -7    59.9%      $127 

Indiana Pacers +4.5  59.6%          $120

Orlando Magic -5   58.5%            $96

Orlando Under 205.5    59.5%    $118   (4 Stars)

Atlanta Hawks +5.5    55.5%     $31

New York Knicks -3.5  54%  $60 (4 Stars)

Oklahoma City -9.5  60.5%     $140

Oklahoma Under 194.5  53.2%   $60 (4 Stars)

New Jersey Over 176.5 55.4%    $29

Boston Celtics -1.5   56%    $42

Dallas Under 198.5   56.3%   $48

Phoenix Suns -5.5  56.5%   $60 (4 Stars)

Phoenix Over 216.5  58%    $85

Sacramento Under 207.5 53.3% $60 (4 Stars)

LA Lakers Over 201  56.4%  $51

LA Lakers -14  53.2%    $60 (4 Stars)

4-Star Play

Chicago Bulls -16.5 52.9%    $60

Portland +2     53.2%             $60

3-Star Play

Portland Over 189.5 50.9%   $40

OOPS DISREGARD THE BOTTOM PART

Quote Originally Posted by Nord76:

Joined Covers just to say thanks for posting this mate
Quick question, do you know why the 4 star plays are not always the highest percentage plays?

Let's look at the Lakers -14, which is listed as a 4-star play but only has a 53.2% probability of covering. It's a 4-star play because Accuscore's Daily Line Report indicates that Accuscore's ATS Record in LAL Games is 17-12 58.6%.

Conversely, Accuscore's predicted probability of Indiana +4.5 is 61.8%, but it's only a 2-star play because Accuscore's ATS Record in Indiana games is 16-16 50%.

Great link. Thanks. Needed something like that - nice and tidy in one link.

Results 3/19 (3/18 U.S.)

Toronto Raptors -7    $107.95        

Indiana Pacers  +4.5  $102            

Orlando Magic -5        -$96              

Orlando Under 205.5    $100.3        

Atlanta Hawks +5.5     -$31              

New York Knicks -3.5  -$60              

Oklahoma City -9.5       $119               

Oklahoma Under 194.5  $51                

New Jersey Over 176.5  $24.65           

Boston Celtics -1.5       -$42                 

Dallas Under 198.5       $40.8                 

Phoenix Suns -5.5     $51                        

Phoenix Over 216.5     -$85                    

Sacramento Under 207.5   $51                 

LA Lakers Over 201   $43.35                   

LA Lakers -14  -$60                                    

I use the Kelly betting system or criterion to determine my bet size except for the 4-star and 3-star plays that have low percentages. You can google it or look up Ganchrow on SBR incase you're not familiar with this system (The man is a genius in terms of mathematics, and I think he created the NBA half-point calculator and many of the other betting tools you'll find on SBR). The Kelly system basically tells you how much to bet in proportion to your bankroll and estimated win probability or edge that you have in terms of %.

Shhh.. Don't let out the secret now lest Accuscore find out and revoke your free subscription! lol...Accuscore is a great tool for me because when I find stale lines on my Korean book (Example...Oklahoma City sat at -9.5 for awhile while the other books moved it up to -11), and I know have good value but can't determine an exact edge, Accuscore gives me that magical number - the win probability.

3/20 (3/19 U.S.)

Miami Heat Under 206.5   58.9%  +8.97%   $105

   (4-Star Play)

Indiana Pacers +8.5  61.7%  +14.14%    $166

 (4-Star Play)

Indiana Over 203.5  57.7%    +6.75%   $79

  (2-Star Play + Hot Trend)

San Antonio Spurs -11.5  56.7%   $57 (2 Stars)

Yes, 4-star plays are better than 3-star plays. That simply means Accuscore has produced a better record for that particular team if it is a 4-star play as opposed to a 3-star play.

New Orleans is listed as 56.2% 2-stars at +1. Under 178.5 is listed at 55.0% 4-star play.

Portland is -5.5 56.2% 1-star play. O187.5 is listed at 52.1% 4-star play.

The lines for these games haven't come out on my book, so I haven't posted these games yet. The Korean books are really slowly and take forever to open lines or change them once they do open.  

Oh really? Are you Korean? I've been here 12 years now man and still haven't adjusted. lol