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#1
I must admit, although I only started gambling a year ago, I get all nostalgic when I think about the opening line. I’m sure there was a day when guys would wait in anticipation for the sports-books to open (or for their bookie to wake up) so that they could get an edge by grabbing the opening line. But in today’s world of internet gambling going through the trouble of grabbing the opening line (especially in the NBA) is not only often unnecessary but actually puts us, the bettor, at a disadvantage. With all the ebbs and flows, highs and lows, of an NBA game there is rarely one where a bettor couldn’t have the line of his choosing (if he/she is patient enough). Just this past week I’ve seen 3 or 4 instances where people on this forum grabbed a team that a capper recommended for them to take but at a much better line then the capper himself got (with the Pistons/Bucks game being the most painful example I can think of, although I’m sure the Lakers/Kings game last night was probably just as painful for some). In those games the Pistons and Kings were available for less than -3, when the opening line was -6 and -7 respectively. Using this technique of tailing a really good capper but grabbing an even better line can really pay off in the long run.
Think about it, if you picked a team to win a game and now they are down by 5 or 6 points and you are being offered a better line, what’s changed? Nothing, except the fact that you, as a bettor, might be a lot more skittish betting on a team that is behind. But this is basketball, a game of runs and lead changes and the algorithms that are used to set lines during in game betting do not take into account human psychology and/or motivation, and that’s where the edge lies. Wire to wire wins (like the Knicks game last night) are few and far between. Additionally, there are many teams out there with the reputation for coughing up big leads (Timberwolves, for instance). Betting against such teams when they have leads can also be profitable. The biggest obstacle to in game betting (besides a family, if you have one, and time) is human psychology. Discipline and self control are key. The other thing to remember is to never pay more for a line that you could have gotten for less at opening (with rare exceptions, of course). In other words, buy low and sell high. Anyway, there is a lot more to say/add but I just wanted to get this thread started for now.
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