Bodio- Line is -3 now- is this still a play
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Yes...grab it before it goes up even more!
Probably -4 / -4.5
Probably -4 / -4.5
BOL BODIO!! IM ON THOSE BEES AT -3. I REALLY DONT SEE ANYTHING STANDING IN THEIR WAY TONIGHT.
Agreed! Good luck!
BOL BODIO!! IM ON THOSE BEES AT -3. I REALLY DONT SEE ANYTHING STANDING IN THEIR WAY TONIGHT.
Agreed! Good luck!
Hey Brendan,
I'm not aware of any "off-the-shelf" handicapping software. If there is, then I can pretty much guarantee you that it hits 50% long-term, or else EVERYONE would be using it! I don't keep a database, even though that would be extremely useful long-term. Instead I rely on various sources available on-line that keep track of relevant (and for the MOST part irrelevant) trends. What I do utilize is a statistical 'Excel-based' model for every sport I handicap for. For basketball I concentrate on MOV (margin of victory) and SOS (strength of schedule) to determine an approximate 'line' for each matchup. After that I focus on 4 key components to winning in basketball: EFG%, TOV%, ORB%, and FT/FGA. I've set up my model to be able to detect variance in each of these between each matchup that I analyze. If the variance is significant enough, my model adjusts the line accordingly. If there is no significance, then it doesn't. Once I run the model for each matchup, I have a pretty good feel for where the LINE should be from the statistical, MOV, and SOS standpoint. To me this is CRITICAL. Most people analyze NBA blindly, without having a 'good' feel for the line. That's a mistake. You have to know if the line is accurate or not. MOST of the time the posted line and the line provided by my model is very very close. Sometimes (rarely) it's OFF by significant amount (to me that's at least 3 points) and I make sure to be able to explain that variance. In any case, once you have a feeling for each particlar LINE using some kind of a statistical model, then it is much easier to truly dig in and handicap each game.
NBA is a sport where most of the time the posted line is very 'efficient', so we must utilize various motivational, scheduling, and trend-related factors to find an edge. I like developing my own 'mini' trends for each particular year (Example: Spurs on the road against top 10 home-defenses are like 3-7 SU; Celtics playing the 2nd game on the road of a b2b after winning the 1st game are 1-8 SU this year (someone else actually pointed this one out), etc) that are not really tracked by various sites. Noticing 'angles' like this truly could provide an 'edge' in this game.
Alright, I might be confusing you here, but here are the 2 factors that I think are very important. #1: Create a statistical model that can provide you with a good solid 'line' estimation #2: Handicap the heck out of each matchup after to determine if there is a particular 'angle', trend, motivationa edge, 'fatique' spot, etc. that favors one team over another. Statistically, pretty much ALL posted lines are efficient. It's our job to find that 'edge'. If you don't have it, then don't play it! And that, my friend, is actually the BIGGEST edge that we have over the booksHey Brendan,
I'm not aware of any "off-the-shelf" handicapping software. If there is, then I can pretty much guarantee you that it hits 50% long-term, or else EVERYONE would be using it! I don't keep a database, even though that would be extremely useful long-term. Instead I rely on various sources available on-line that keep track of relevant (and for the MOST part irrelevant) trends. What I do utilize is a statistical 'Excel-based' model for every sport I handicap for. For basketball I concentrate on MOV (margin of victory) and SOS (strength of schedule) to determine an approximate 'line' for each matchup. After that I focus on 4 key components to winning in basketball: EFG%, TOV%, ORB%, and FT/FGA. I've set up my model to be able to detect variance in each of these between each matchup that I analyze. If the variance is significant enough, my model adjusts the line accordingly. If there is no significance, then it doesn't. Once I run the model for each matchup, I have a pretty good feel for where the LINE should be from the statistical, MOV, and SOS standpoint. To me this is CRITICAL. Most people analyze NBA blindly, without having a 'good' feel for the line. That's a mistake. You have to know if the line is accurate or not. MOST of the time the posted line and the line provided by my model is very very close. Sometimes (rarely) it's OFF by significant amount (to me that's at least 3 points) and I make sure to be able to explain that variance. In any case, once you have a feeling for each particlar LINE using some kind of a statistical model, then it is much easier to truly dig in and handicap each game.
NBA is a sport where most of the time the posted line is very 'efficient', so we must utilize various motivational, scheduling, and trend-related factors to find an edge. I like developing my own 'mini' trends for each particular year (Example: Spurs on the road against top 10 home-defenses are like 3-7 SU; Celtics playing the 2nd game on the road of a b2b after winning the 1st game are 1-8 SU this year (someone else actually pointed this one out), etc) that are not really tracked by various sites. Noticing 'angles' like this truly could provide an 'edge' in this game.
Alright, I might be confusing you here, but here are the 2 factors that I think are very important. #1: Create a statistical model that can provide you with a good solid 'line' estimation #2: Handicap the heck out of each matchup after to determine if there is a particular 'angle', trend, motivationa edge, 'fatique' spot, etc. that favors one team over another. Statistically, pretty much ALL posted lines are efficient. It's our job to find that 'edge'. If you don't have it, then don't play it! And that, my friend, is actually the BIGGEST edge that we have over the booksI think the opening line was way too low and the sharp action ate it up overnight!
I think the opening line was way too low and the sharp action ate it up overnight!
Hmmm tough to say. A LOT Of the VALUE is gone of course anytimet you go frmo -1.5 to -4.5.... This means that, instead of winning by 1 bucket, the Hornets now must win by 3. Big big difference. Can they do it? I think so. For the reasons listed in my write-up, I just don't see how this tired Jazz team is going to hang with the Bees.
Last game in New Orleans, Hornets held Utah to only 35% from the field and outrebounded them 53-24 (by almost 30!) Rebounding and defense is all effort and energy, and I'm just not sure how this tired and demoralized Utah squad is going to hang in this one.
Keep in mind that New Orleans are only 1/2 a game from the 8th and final spot, and with the way that Houston and Phoenix are playing, this playoff race isn't over. I expect the Bees to be focused tonight and get a comfortable DD's win.
GOOD LUCK
Hmmm tough to say. A LOT Of the VALUE is gone of course anytimet you go frmo -1.5 to -4.5.... This means that, instead of winning by 1 bucket, the Hornets now must win by 3. Big big difference. Can they do it? I think so. For the reasons listed in my write-up, I just don't see how this tired Jazz team is going to hang with the Bees.
Last game in New Orleans, Hornets held Utah to only 35% from the field and outrebounded them 53-24 (by almost 30!) Rebounding and defense is all effort and energy, and I'm just not sure how this tired and demoralized Utah squad is going to hang in this one.
Keep in mind that New Orleans are only 1/2 a game from the 8th and final spot, and with the way that Houston and Phoenix are playing, this playoff race isn't over. I expect the Bees to be focused tonight and get a comfortable DD's win.
GOOD LUCK
Bodio! is -3 still good?........
is -3.5 still good?.....
is -3.82 still good?.......
is -4 still good?.........
is -4.314 still good?........
is -4.5 still good?.........
is -4.502 stll good?........
I think if Bodio says go jump off a cliff.......i'm starting to think some probably will
Bodio is a good capper puts in a lot of hard work, no doubt. Truth is you're not going to make money by tailing someone blindly. Do your homework and watch a game or two.
Bodio! is -3 still good?........
is -3.5 still good?.....
is -3.82 still good?.......
is -4 still good?.........
is -4.314 still good?........
is -4.5 still good?.........
is -4.502 stll good?........
I think if Bodio says go jump off a cliff.......i'm starting to think some probably will
Bodio is a good capper puts in a lot of hard work, no doubt. Truth is you're not going to make money by tailing someone blindly. Do your homework and watch a game or two.
Bodio! is -3 still good?........
is -3.5 still good?.....
is -3.82 still good?.......
is -4 still good?.........
is -4.314 still good?........
is -4.5 still good?.........
is -4.502 stll good?........
I think if Bodio says go jump off a cliff.......i'm starting to think some probably will
Bodio is a good capper puts in a lot of hard work, no doubt. Truth is you're not going to make money by tailing someone blindly. Do your homework and watch a game or two.
Bodio! is -3 still good?........
is -3.5 still good?.....
is -3.82 still good?.......
is -4 still good?.........
is -4.314 still good?........
is -4.5 still good?.........
is -4.502 stll good?........
I think if Bodio says go jump off a cliff.......i'm starting to think some probably will
Bodio is a good capper puts in a lot of hard work, no doubt. Truth is you're not going to make money by tailing someone blindly. Do your homework and watch a game or two.
Great write-up...took a small bet on the Bees -4.5 and then moneylined them with a ML college play.
Thanks BODIO...good luck to all of us!
EVIL E
Great write-up...took a small bet on the Bees -4.5 and then moneylined them with a ML college play.
Thanks BODIO...good luck to all of us!
EVIL E
Bodio! is -3 still good?........
is -3.5 still good?.....
is -3.82 still good?.......
is -4 still good?.........
is -4.314 still good?........
is -4.5 still good?.........
is -4.502 stll good?........
I think if Bodio says go jump off a cliff.......i'm starting to think some probably will
Bodio is a good capper puts in a lot of hard work, no doubt. Truth is you're not going to make money by tailing someone blindly. Do your homework and watch a game or two.
Bodio! is -3 still good?........
is -3.5 still good?.....
is -3.82 still good?.......
is -4 still good?.........
is -4.314 still good?........
is -4.5 still good?.........
is -4.502 stll good?........
I think if Bodio says go jump off a cliff.......i'm starting to think some probably will
Bodio is a good capper puts in a lot of hard work, no doubt. Truth is you're not going to make money by tailing someone blindly. Do your homework and watch a game or two.
Sure...
I would suggest getting a book by Dean Oliver, 'Basketball on Paper'. It describes these and other important statistical formulas and acronyms, that pertain to the game of basketball.
EFG% - Effective FG %
TOV% - Turnover rate based on possessions
ORB% - Offensive Rebounding rate
FTA/FGA - ratio of FT attempts to FG attempts.
Try this site here: https://hoopdata.com/teamff.aspx
I adhere to a straight one amount per play. I used 2% of my STARTING bankroll as that amount (it's obviously less than that now since I've grown my BR over this past year and will look to re-adjust after the MLB season). The key here is figuring out what you are comfortable with as well as what is appropriate for your particular BR. Basically, you should never go above 3% on each of your bets. If you are betting an amount which makes you sit in front of your computer with 'gamecast' on, pray to god with your hands clenched, as sweat is dripping profusely from your brow every single day, then YOU ARE BETTING WAY TOO MUCH! If you bet an amount that doesn't really excite you enough to even check the boxscore at the end of the day, then YOU ARE BETTING TOO LITTLE and should find ways to increase your BR. The key is figuring out the right amount that is also appropriate for your bankroll. Once you do that, you don't have to worry about varying UNIT sizes (I have no idea what Kelly Criterion is by the way) because each play will be fairly significant but not significant enough for you to lose sleep over (that only happens if it's proportionate to your BR). Most people think that betting 5k on a particular sporting even is 'crazy', but that's incorrect. If a person has a 250k BR, then betting 5k on each particular sporting event is NOTHING since it's only 2%. Same thing with people that have a 1k BR. They should only be betting $20 - $30 MAX on each of their wagers. If they're betting $100 when their BR is $1000, one of these 2 things will occur: they will suffer a heart-attack or they will lose all of their BR very quickly. Plus, betting more than you should, leads to 'chasing', doubling up, and other unecessary and uncalculated risks. Hope this makes sense.
The Excel model is somethign that I've created over the years. It's fairly advanced. The MOV (Margin Of Victory) numbers are pulled into it daily, from stats available on-line. SOS (Strength Of Schedule) data combines the MOV as well as the strength of each opponent and adjusts for it accordingly. To be honest with you, it really works well in the early and middle part of the season. Right now, you can pretty much look at each team's MOV, compare to one another and that will give you an estimation of what the LINE should be. Factor in about 3 points for home-court advantage. For example, let's look at today's Hornets/Jazz matchup: NOH MOV = +1.7; UTA MOV + -1.4 It's safe to say that the Hornets are about +3.1 points better than the Jazz. Accounting for HCA (home court advantage), and this game should be pretty close to Pick 'EM in a perfect world. Now account for injuries, fatigue, MOTIVATION (critical in NBA), revenge, relevant trends, etc. etc, etc. I think you and everyone else can see that the opening line of -1.5 Hornets did NOT properly account for all the relevant handicapping factors. Well, that's one of the reasons that the line moved to -4.5 now. It's a bit closer. Sharp bettors are able to spot these market inefficiencies quickly and they snap these opportunites up. That's why the line moved so much.
If you want another example, why don't you just analyze the MOV averages in the MIN/DAL matchup. Tell me what the line should be in the 'perfect scenario', see what the line is now, and try to logically explain why it is where it's at. Once you're able to develop a good feel for doing, this you'll be successful handicapping NBA! (Add in some knowledge of advanced stats, create a few more advanced models, and start tracking relevant/unique trends, and soon enough, you'll be sharing this knowledge with someone else here on covers) :)
And YES, I do baseball. I utilize Sabermetrics in baseball to help me see market inefficiencies on a daily basis. Read "Moneyball" for that one and get familiar with sites line fangraphs, baseball-prospectus and others.
Good luck!
Sure...
I would suggest getting a book by Dean Oliver, 'Basketball on Paper'. It describes these and other important statistical formulas and acronyms, that pertain to the game of basketball.
EFG% - Effective FG %
TOV% - Turnover rate based on possessions
ORB% - Offensive Rebounding rate
FTA/FGA - ratio of FT attempts to FG attempts.
Try this site here: https://hoopdata.com/teamff.aspx
I adhere to a straight one amount per play. I used 2% of my STARTING bankroll as that amount (it's obviously less than that now since I've grown my BR over this past year and will look to re-adjust after the MLB season). The key here is figuring out what you are comfortable with as well as what is appropriate for your particular BR. Basically, you should never go above 3% on each of your bets. If you are betting an amount which makes you sit in front of your computer with 'gamecast' on, pray to god with your hands clenched, as sweat is dripping profusely from your brow every single day, then YOU ARE BETTING WAY TOO MUCH! If you bet an amount that doesn't really excite you enough to even check the boxscore at the end of the day, then YOU ARE BETTING TOO LITTLE and should find ways to increase your BR. The key is figuring out the right amount that is also appropriate for your bankroll. Once you do that, you don't have to worry about varying UNIT sizes (I have no idea what Kelly Criterion is by the way) because each play will be fairly significant but not significant enough for you to lose sleep over (that only happens if it's proportionate to your BR). Most people think that betting 5k on a particular sporting even is 'crazy', but that's incorrect. If a person has a 250k BR, then betting 5k on each particular sporting event is NOTHING since it's only 2%. Same thing with people that have a 1k BR. They should only be betting $20 - $30 MAX on each of their wagers. If they're betting $100 when their BR is $1000, one of these 2 things will occur: they will suffer a heart-attack or they will lose all of their BR very quickly. Plus, betting more than you should, leads to 'chasing', doubling up, and other unecessary and uncalculated risks. Hope this makes sense.
The Excel model is somethign that I've created over the years. It's fairly advanced. The MOV (Margin Of Victory) numbers are pulled into it daily, from stats available on-line. SOS (Strength Of Schedule) data combines the MOV as well as the strength of each opponent and adjusts for it accordingly. To be honest with you, it really works well in the early and middle part of the season. Right now, you can pretty much look at each team's MOV, compare to one another and that will give you an estimation of what the LINE should be. Factor in about 3 points for home-court advantage. For example, let's look at today's Hornets/Jazz matchup: NOH MOV = +1.7; UTA MOV + -1.4 It's safe to say that the Hornets are about +3.1 points better than the Jazz. Accounting for HCA (home court advantage), and this game should be pretty close to Pick 'EM in a perfect world. Now account for injuries, fatigue, MOTIVATION (critical in NBA), revenge, relevant trends, etc. etc, etc. I think you and everyone else can see that the opening line of -1.5 Hornets did NOT properly account for all the relevant handicapping factors. Well, that's one of the reasons that the line moved to -4.5 now. It's a bit closer. Sharp bettors are able to spot these market inefficiencies quickly and they snap these opportunites up. That's why the line moved so much.
If you want another example, why don't you just analyze the MOV averages in the MIN/DAL matchup. Tell me what the line should be in the 'perfect scenario', see what the line is now, and try to logically explain why it is where it's at. Once you're able to develop a good feel for doing, this you'll be successful handicapping NBA! (Add in some knowledge of advanced stats, create a few more advanced models, and start tracking relevant/unique trends, and soon enough, you'll be sharing this knowledge with someone else here on covers) :)
And YES, I do baseball. I utilize Sabermetrics in baseball to help me see market inefficiencies on a daily basis. Read "Moneyball" for that one and get familiar with sites line fangraphs, baseball-prospectus and others.
Good luck!
Why didn't you grab it last night?
Why didn't you grab it last night?
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