Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Sure...
I would suggest getting a book by Dean Oliver, 'Basketball on Paper'. It describes these and other important statistical formulas and acronyms, that pertain to the game of basketball.
EFG% - Effective FG %
TOV% - Turnover rate based on possessions
ORB% - Offensive Rebounding rate
FTA/FGA - ratio of FT attempts to FG attempts.
Try this site here: https://hoopdata.com/teamff.aspx
I adhere to a straight one amount per play. I used 2% of my STARTING bankroll as that amount (it's obviously less than that now since I've grown my BR over this past year and will look to re-adjust after the MLB season). The key here is figuring out what you are comfortable with as well as what is appropriate for your particular BR. Basically, you should never go above 3% on each of your bets. If you are betting an amount which makes you sit in front of your computer with 'gamecast' on, pray to god with your hands clenched, as sweat is dripping profusely from your brow every single day, then YOU ARE BETTING WAY TOO MUCH! If you bet an amount that doesn't really excite you enough to even check the boxscore at the end of the day, then YOU ARE BETTING TOO LITTLE and should find ways to increase your BR. The key is figuring out the right amount that is also appropriate for your bankroll. Once you do that, you don't have to worry about varying UNIT sizes (I have no idea what Kelly Criterion is by the way) because each play will be fairly significant but not significant enough for you to lose sleep over (that only happens if it's proportionate to your BR). Most people think that betting 5k on a particular sporting even is 'crazy', but that's incorrect. If a person has a 250k BR, then betting 5k on each particular sporting event is NOTHING since it's only 2%. Same thing with people that have a 1k BR. They should only be betting $20 - $30 MAX on each of their wagers. If they're betting $100 when their BR is $1000, one of these 2 things will occur: they will suffer a heart-attack or they will lose all of their BR very quickly. Plus, betting more than you should, leads to 'chasing', doubling up, and other unecessary and uncalculated risks. Hope this makes sense.
The Excel model is somethign that I've created over the years. It's fairly advanced. The MOV (Margin Of Victory) numbers are pulled into it daily, from stats available on-line. SOS (Strength Of Schedule) data combines the MOV as well as the strength of each opponent and adjusts for it accordingly. To be honest with you, it really works well in the early and middle part of the season. Right now, you can pretty much look at each team's MOV, compare to one another and that will give you an estimation of what the LINE should be. Factor in about 3 points for home-court advantage. For example, let's look at today's Hornets/Jazz matchup: NOH MOV = +1.7; UTA MOV + -1.4 It's safe to say that the Hornets are about +3.1 points better than the Jazz. Accounting for HCA (home court advantage), and this game should be pretty close to Pick 'EM in a perfect world. Now account for injuries, fatigue, MOTIVATION (critical in NBA), revenge, relevant trends, etc. etc, etc. I think you and everyone else can see that the opening line of -1.5 Hornets did NOT properly account for all the relevant handicapping factors. Well, that's one of the reasons that the line moved to -4.5 now. It's a bit closer. Sharp bettors are able to spot these market inefficiencies quickly and they snap these opportunites up. That's why the line moved so much.
If you want another example, why don't you just analyze the MOV averages in the MIN/DAL matchup. Tell me what the line should be in the 'perfect scenario', see what the line is now, and try to logically explain why it is where it's at. Once you're able to develop a good feel for doing, this you'll be successful handicapping NBA! (Add in some knowledge of advanced stats, create a few more advanced models, and start tracking relevant/unique trends, and soon enough, you'll be sharing this knowledge with someone else here on covers) :)
And YES, I do baseball. I utilize Sabermetrics in baseball to help me see market inefficiencies on a daily basis. Read "Moneyball" for that one and get familiar with sites line fangraphs, baseball-prospectus and others.
Good luck!