If you feel Butler will 'cover the spread'..well, you should PASS on the game then.
Ture that Bro, always take a team you think can or prolly will win when the spread is that close then if they don't hopefully you get that backdoor spread and they fall within the number. GL Refuse2Lose either way.
If you feel Butler will 'cover the spread'..well, you should PASS on the game then.
Ture that Bro, always take a team you think can or prolly will win when the spread is that close then if they don't hopefully you get that backdoor spread and they fall within the number. GL Refuse2Lose either way.
OH yeah...haha...Automatic Tomahawks Missiles. (I see this as a thread title in my future! This cracks me up!)
lol Bodio man, don't do it, i tell you they keep missing. lol. But if you think you can turn it around, which i think you can just stay focus on the pick first then
i am looking forward to see that happen and hit, that will be fun along with the payback.
OH yeah...haha...Automatic Tomahawks Missiles. (I see this as a thread title in my future! This cracks me up!)
lol Bodio man, don't do it, i tell you they keep missing. lol. But if you think you can turn it around, which i think you can just stay focus on the pick first then
i am looking forward to see that happen and hit, that will be fun along with the payback.
In nfl you have "key numbers" 3, 4, 7, 10 etc.. You don't really have key numbers per se but I have noticed something about key numbers in the nba since i started capping. When you feel really strong about a team winning or they are heavily favored to win, they usually win by at least 5 points. That seems to be sort of a key number I have noticed. A team maybe favored by between 7-10 points chances are they will cover at least 5. In this case with NO/Jazz I feel like NO has a very strong chance of winning in this spot and even though the odds came out at only -1.5 it was clearly way under what it should've been in this spot.
So to conclude I took NO at -4 (buying the hook as part of a parlay) as I feel strong enough that they can cover 2 buckets and fall within this 5 point "key number".
I others words if you feel THAT strong about playing a team ML then they really should have no problem winning by 4 or 5 pts minimum. There is no reason why the other team should be hanging around that close towards the end of the game to be within the range of 2 buckets. Plus you have the fouling scenario at the very end of games and that usually adds to the cover in your favor. Now I have been burned by teams missing foul shots at the end and not covering the short spread but it is a rarity.
Just an observation I have seen.
Thanks for your thoughts. Good stuff.
One question. Is this something that you just 'think' happens, or do you actually have hard data to back this number-5 theory up? Would be curious to see an analysis on this thanks
In nfl you have "key numbers" 3, 4, 7, 10 etc.. You don't really have key numbers per se but I have noticed something about key numbers in the nba since i started capping. When you feel really strong about a team winning or they are heavily favored to win, they usually win by at least 5 points. That seems to be sort of a key number I have noticed. A team maybe favored by between 7-10 points chances are they will cover at least 5. In this case with NO/Jazz I feel like NO has a very strong chance of winning in this spot and even though the odds came out at only -1.5 it was clearly way under what it should've been in this spot.
So to conclude I took NO at -4 (buying the hook as part of a parlay) as I feel strong enough that they can cover 2 buckets and fall within this 5 point "key number".
I others words if you feel THAT strong about playing a team ML then they really should have no problem winning by 4 or 5 pts minimum. There is no reason why the other team should be hanging around that close towards the end of the game to be within the range of 2 buckets. Plus you have the fouling scenario at the very end of games and that usually adds to the cover in your favor. Now I have been burned by teams missing foul shots at the end and not covering the short spread but it is a rarity.
Just an observation I have seen.
Thanks for your thoughts. Good stuff.
One question. Is this something that you just 'think' happens, or do you actually have hard data to back this number-5 theory up? Would be curious to see an analysis on this thanks
In nfl you have "key numbers" 3, 4, 7, 10 etc.. You don't really have key numbers per se but I have noticed something about key numbers in the nba since i started capping. When you feel really strong about a team winning or they are heavily favored to win, they usually win by at least 5 points. That seems to be sort of a key number I have noticed. A team maybe favored by between 7-10 points chances are they will cover at least 5. In this case with NO/Jazz I feel like NO has a very strong chance of winning in this spot and even though the odds came out at only -1.5 it was clearly way under what it should've been in this spot.
So to conclude I took NO at -4 (buying the hook as part of a parlay) as I feel strong enough that they can cover 2 buckets and fall within this 5 point "key number".
I others words if you feel THAT strong about playing a team ML then they really should have no problem winning by 4 or 5 pts minimum. There is no reason why the other team should be hanging around that close towards the end of the game to be within the range of 2 buckets. Plus you have the fouling scenario at the very end of games and that usually adds to the cover in your favor. Now I have been burned by teams missing foul shots at the end and not covering the short spread but it is a rarity.
Just an observation I have seen.
Yes very interesting great info certainly 5 is the possible number.
In nfl you have "key numbers" 3, 4, 7, 10 etc.. You don't really have key numbers per se but I have noticed something about key numbers in the nba since i started capping. When you feel really strong about a team winning or they are heavily favored to win, they usually win by at least 5 points. That seems to be sort of a key number I have noticed. A team maybe favored by between 7-10 points chances are they will cover at least 5. In this case with NO/Jazz I feel like NO has a very strong chance of winning in this spot and even though the odds came out at only -1.5 it was clearly way under what it should've been in this spot.
So to conclude I took NO at -4 (buying the hook as part of a parlay) as I feel strong enough that they can cover 2 buckets and fall within this 5 point "key number".
I others words if you feel THAT strong about playing a team ML then they really should have no problem winning by 4 or 5 pts minimum. There is no reason why the other team should be hanging around that close towards the end of the game to be within the range of 2 buckets. Plus you have the fouling scenario at the very end of games and that usually adds to the cover in your favor. Now I have been burned by teams missing foul shots at the end and not covering the short spread but it is a rarity.
Just an observation I have seen.
Yes very interesting great info certainly 5 is the possible number.
My books got 80% of the action on the Jazz straight up.. It blows my mind.. Must be full of idiots.. I just don't see the Jazz having the solid offensive game plan to stick around in this one.. With Okafor grinding it out in the paint with Jefferson who isn't very quick, just a bully player.. and West helping out as well.. I don't see them getting the bulk of their points from Jefferson and Millsap like they ussually do.. I think the Bees will be overly prepared for this one and play their style of defensive ball tonight.. Love this play, just wish I jumped on it at 1.5.. I bought a pt. and got it to 3.5.. Great write up as well Bodio.. BOL to us All on the BEESwagon!
My books got 80% of the action on the Jazz straight up.. It blows my mind.. Must be full of idiots.. I just don't see the Jazz having the solid offensive game plan to stick around in this one.. With Okafor grinding it out in the paint with Jefferson who isn't very quick, just a bully player.. and West helping out as well.. I don't see them getting the bulk of their points from Jefferson and Millsap like they ussually do.. I think the Bees will be overly prepared for this one and play their style of defensive ball tonight.. Love this play, just wish I jumped on it at 1.5.. I bought a pt. and got it to 3.5.. Great write up as well Bodio.. BOL to us All on the BEESwagon!
My books got 80% of the action on the Jazz straight up.. It blows my mind.. Must be full of idiots.. I just don't see the Jazz having the solid offensive game plan to stick around in this one.. With Okafor grinding it out in the paint with Jefferson who isn't very quick, just a bully player.. and West helping out as well.. I don't see them getting the bulk of their points from Jefferson and Millsap like they ussually do.. I think the Bees will be overly prepared for this one and play their style of defensive ball tonight.. Love this play, just wish I jumped on it at 1.5.. I bought a pt. and got it to 3.5.. Great write up as well Bodio.. BOL to us All on the BEESwagon!
My books got 80% of the action on the Jazz straight up.. It blows my mind.. Must be full of idiots.. I just don't see the Jazz having the solid offensive game plan to stick around in this one.. With Okafor grinding it out in the paint with Jefferson who isn't very quick, just a bully player.. and West helping out as well.. I don't see them getting the bulk of their points from Jefferson and Millsap like they ussually do.. I think the Bees will be overly prepared for this one and play their style of defensive ball tonight.. Love this play, just wish I jumped on it at 1.5.. I bought a pt. and got it to 3.5.. Great write up as well Bodio.. BOL to us All on the BEESwagon!
One question. Is this something that you just 'think' happens, or do you actually have hard data to back this number-5 theory up? Would be curious to see an analysis on this thanks
It is based on what I have actually seen happen alot when capping games. I would like to go back in past results and look at these statistics and post the outcomes so then it becomes hard data.
Here is are some examples from last night-
You can see how I adjusted spreads to within that range of 5 pts and most covered just within that range. The bucks and Denver didnt cover the number but the rest did. Denver was very close but the bucks completely blew it. Unfortunately i lost both parlays by 1 game and one by .5pt (denver).
Loss6 Team Parlay
Win3/23/11 7:05pm
NBA Basketball 751 New Jersey Nets -3 -110* vs
Cleveland Cavaliers Win 3/23/11
7:05pm NBA Basketball 754 Philadelphia 76ers -4 -200* vs
Atlanta Hawks Win 3/23/11
8:05pm NBA Basketball 765 Orlando Magic -1 -110* vs New
York Knicks Win 3/23/11
8:05pm NBA Basketball 765 Orlando Magic/New York Knicks Over
196 -300* Win 3/23/11
10:05pm NBA Basketball 770 Phoenix Suns -4 -200* vs
Toronto Raptors Loss 3/23/11
10:35pm NBA Basketball 772 Denver Nuggets -3½ -131* vs San
Antonio Spurs
One question. Is this something that you just 'think' happens, or do you actually have hard data to back this number-5 theory up? Would be curious to see an analysis on this thanks
It is based on what I have actually seen happen alot when capping games. I would like to go back in past results and look at these statistics and post the outcomes so then it becomes hard data.
Here is are some examples from last night-
You can see how I adjusted spreads to within that range of 5 pts and most covered just within that range. The bucks and Denver didnt cover the number but the rest did. Denver was very close but the bucks completely blew it. Unfortunately i lost both parlays by 1 game and one by .5pt (denver).
Loss6 Team Parlay
Win3/23/11 7:05pm
NBA Basketball 751 New Jersey Nets -3 -110* vs
Cleveland Cavaliers Win 3/23/11
7:05pm NBA Basketball 754 Philadelphia 76ers -4 -200* vs
Atlanta Hawks Win 3/23/11
8:05pm NBA Basketball 765 Orlando Magic -1 -110* vs New
York Knicks Win 3/23/11
8:05pm NBA Basketball 765 Orlando Magic/New York Knicks Over
196 -300* Win 3/23/11
10:05pm NBA Basketball 770 Phoenix Suns -4 -200* vs
Toronto Raptors Loss 3/23/11
10:35pm NBA Basketball 772 Denver Nuggets -3½ -131* vs San
Antonio Spurs
My books got 80% of the action on the Jazz straight up.. It blows my mind.. Must be full of idiots.. I just don't see the Jazz having the solid offensive game plan to stick around in this one.. With Okafor grinding it out in the paint with Jefferson who isn't very quick, just a bully player.. and West helping out as well.. I don't see them getting the bulk of their points from Jefferson and Millsap like they ussually do.. I think the Bees will be overly prepared for this one and play their style of defensive ball tonight.. Love this play, just wish I jumped on it at 1.5.. I bought a pt. and got it to 3.5.. Great write up as well Bodio.. BOL to us All on the BEESwagon!
My books got 80% of the action on the Jazz straight up.. It blows my mind.. Must be full of idiots.. I just don't see the Jazz having the solid offensive game plan to stick around in this one.. With Okafor grinding it out in the paint with Jefferson who isn't very quick, just a bully player.. and West helping out as well.. I don't see them getting the bulk of their points from Jefferson and Millsap like they ussually do.. I think the Bees will be overly prepared for this one and play their style of defensive ball tonight.. Love this play, just wish I jumped on it at 1.5.. I bought a pt. and got it to 3.5.. Great write up as well Bodio.. BOL to us All on the BEESwagon!
Win 3/23/11 7:35pm NBA Basketball 757 Miami Heat -4 * vs Detroit Pistons Win 3/23/11 8:05pm NBA Basketball 762 Oklahoma City Thunder -5½ * vs Utah Jazz Loss 3/23/11 8:05pm NBA Basketball 764 Milwaukee Bucks -4 * vsSacramento Kings Win 3/23/11 8:35pm NBA Basketball 768 Houston Rockets -4 * vsGolden State Warriors
Win 3/23/11 7:35pm NBA Basketball 757 Miami Heat -4 * vs Detroit Pistons Win 3/23/11 8:05pm NBA Basketball 762 Oklahoma City Thunder -5½ * vs Utah Jazz Loss 3/23/11 8:05pm NBA Basketball 764 Milwaukee Bucks -4 * vsSacramento Kings Win 3/23/11 8:35pm NBA Basketball 768 Houston Rockets -4 * vsGolden State Warriors
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