Hope you did well yesterday. There are 4 model picks today, of which 2 are plays, 1 is DNP and the last is still up in the are. I need to look at the last game a bit more as the game approached. It looks like a toss up at the moment and I may just move it to DNP to be safe.
I have some ACTUAL work to do at the moment so I will post an update later.
Model Pick Plays:
BOS/LAC
SAS/ORL
Model DNPs:
MIN/TOR
Unclassified:
UTA/NOP
As usual, I will post my picks 30 minutes to an hour before the game.
Equal bets on all plays. Still trying to get a handle on what losers look like in these stats. Once I do that, I will most likely introduce a unit play system.
-Coach Karter
0
Hey Guys,
Hope you did well yesterday. There are 4 model picks today, of which 2 are plays, 1 is DNP and the last is still up in the are. I need to look at the last game a bit more as the game approached. It looks like a toss up at the moment and I may just move it to DNP to be safe.
I have some ACTUAL work to do at the moment so I will post an update later.
Model Pick Plays:
BOS/LAC
SAS/ORL
Model DNPs:
MIN/TOR
Unclassified:
UTA/NOP
As usual, I will post my picks 30 minutes to an hour before the game.
Equal bets on all plays. Still trying to get a handle on what losers look like in these stats. Once I do that, I will most likely introduce a unit play system.
Looked at these again and had a change of heart on Spurs. Spurs have been moved to DNP.
Do not play games means that the picks are model picks but I recommend you do not play due to my experience of seeing what losers look like in the model. Some DNP's I will take the opposite side on a teaser. I will sometimes note this in my post or not. My teasers will not count towards my record.
Model Plays
Pick 1: Celtics ML
Pick 2: Jazz +2
Model Fade Plays*
Pick 3: Raptors -6.5
Do Not Play
Spurs Spread -8.5
Timberwolves +6.5
4 Team Teaser (+6.5 Points): Celtics spread, Jazz spread, Magic spread, Raptors spread
*I do not see the model's pick of Wolves +6.5 as a winner and have decided to fade this pick specifically. This pick will count towards the overall model record.
BOL
-Coach Karter
0
Looked at these again and had a change of heart on Spurs. Spurs have been moved to DNP.
Do not play games means that the picks are model picks but I recommend you do not play due to my experience of seeing what losers look like in the model. Some DNP's I will take the opposite side on a teaser. I will sometimes note this in my post or not. My teasers will not count towards my record.
Model Plays
Pick 1: Celtics ML
Pick 2: Jazz +2
Model Fade Plays*
Pick 3: Raptors -6.5
Do Not Play
Spurs Spread -8.5
Timberwolves +6.5
4 Team Teaser (+6.5 Points): Celtics spread, Jazz spread, Magic spread, Raptors spread
*I do not see the model's pick of Wolves +6.5 as a winner and have decided to fade this pick specifically. This pick will count towards the overall model record.
Looked at these again and had a change of heart on Spurs. Spurs have been moved to DNP.
Do not play games means that the picks are model picks but I recommend you do not play due to my experience of seeing what losers look like in the model. Some DNP's I will take the opposite side on a teaser. I will sometimes note this in my post or not. My teasers will not count towards my record.
Model Plays
Pick 1: Celtics Spread -1.5
Pick 2: Jazz ML
Model Fade Plays*
Pick 3: Raptors -6.5
Do Not Play
Spurs Spread -8.5
Timberwolves +6.5
4 Team Teaser (+6.5 Points): Celtics spread, Jazz spread, Magic spread, Raptors spread
*I do not see the model's pick of Wolves +6.5 as a winner and have decided to fade this pick specifically. This pick will count towards the overall model record.
BOL
-Coach Karter
0
Correction below in red
Quote Originally Posted by CoachKarter:
Looked at these again and had a change of heart on Spurs. Spurs have been moved to DNP.
Do not play games means that the picks are model picks but I recommend you do not play due to my experience of seeing what losers look like in the model. Some DNP's I will take the opposite side on a teaser. I will sometimes note this in my post or not. My teasers will not count towards my record.
Model Plays
Pick 1: Celtics Spread -1.5
Pick 2: Jazz ML
Model Fade Plays*
Pick 3: Raptors -6.5
Do Not Play
Spurs Spread -8.5
Timberwolves +6.5
4 Team Teaser (+6.5 Points): Celtics spread, Jazz spread, Magic spread, Raptors spread
*I do not see the model's pick of Wolves +6.5 as a winner and have decided to fade this pick specifically. This pick will count towards the overall model record.
Jazz were covering until the 4th and the raptors blew it in the second half. I did not watch any games but read the posts on here. Looks like the refs were calling a lot of fouls on the raptors. Either way, I faded the wrong DNP.
We have a week of no plays starting tomorrow. Going to hopefully find some time to make the analysis of these DNPs easier.
Jazz were covering until the 4th and the raptors blew it in the second half. I did not watch any games but read the posts on here. Looks like the refs were calling a lot of fouls on the raptors. Either way, I faded the wrong DNP.
We have a week of no plays starting tomorrow. Going to hopefully find some time to make the analysis of these DNPs easier.
So I finally wrapped up the analysis to minimize the amount of losing games and maximize the winning percentage.
Initially, when analyzing games, each strategy would look at a max of two customized stats. In all, I have about 8 stats for each game that can be analyzed. What I did was identify any material differences for unanalyzed stats (for each strategy) between losing and winning picks. I then added broad filter for that additional stat in order to maximize winning percentage without severely impacting games played.
By tightening the range of the additional filter, the winning record increases quite a bit for some strategies. I will be using this to justify multi-unit plays.
The end product showed promising results, which are shown below.
Before Analysis
Last Three Seasons Record (876 Games): 556-320 (63.5%)
Avg Record Per Season (292 Games): 185-107 (63.4%)
ROI: 20.3%
After Analysis
Last Three Seasons Record (584 Game): 407-177 (69.7%)
Avg Record Per Season (195 Games): 136-59 (69.7%)
ROI: 31.7%
Winning % Alpha: 6.2%
ROI Alpha: 11.5%
Eliminated 292 Games - 149 Winners and 143 Losers were eliminated which is a record of 51%
I will not be classifying picks as DNP anymore. Instead, I will just be posting picks using the updated filters which should exclude DNPs automatically.
I am looking forward to the second half of the season. Picks will start Saturday as each team at least gets a game under its belt after this long rest.
-Coach Karter
0
Hey Everyone,
So I finally wrapped up the analysis to minimize the amount of losing games and maximize the winning percentage.
Initially, when analyzing games, each strategy would look at a max of two customized stats. In all, I have about 8 stats for each game that can be analyzed. What I did was identify any material differences for unanalyzed stats (for each strategy) between losing and winning picks. I then added broad filter for that additional stat in order to maximize winning percentage without severely impacting games played.
By tightening the range of the additional filter, the winning record increases quite a bit for some strategies. I will be using this to justify multi-unit plays.
The end product showed promising results, which are shown below.
Before Analysis
Last Three Seasons Record (876 Games): 556-320 (63.5%)
Avg Record Per Season (292 Games): 185-107 (63.4%)
ROI: 20.3%
After Analysis
Last Three Seasons Record (584 Game): 407-177 (69.7%)
Avg Record Per Season (195 Games): 136-59 (69.7%)
ROI: 31.7%
Winning % Alpha: 6.2%
ROI Alpha: 11.5%
Eliminated 292 Games - 149 Winners and 143 Losers were eliminated which is a record of 51%
I will not be classifying picks as DNP anymore. Instead, I will just be posting picks using the updated filters which should exclude DNPs automatically.
I am looking forward to the second half of the season. Picks will start Saturday as each team at least gets a game under its belt after this long rest.
Thanks coach appreciate your hard work look forward to tailing are you starting new record from now ? I'll be tailing so let's stack sum paper!!!! Cheers
0
Thanks coach appreciate your hard work look forward to tailing are you starting new record from now ? I'll be tailing so let's stack sum paper!!!! Cheers
Thanks coach appreciate your hard work look forward to tailing are you starting new record from now ? I'll be tailing so let's stack sum paper!!!! Cheers
I will have an aggregate record and a separate post-analysis record.
Lets make some dough. Looking forward to this weekend.
-Coach Karter
0
Quote Originally Posted by Jumpa:
Thanks coach appreciate your hard work look forward to tailing are you starting new record from now ? I'll be tailing so let's stack sum paper!!!! Cheers
I will have an aggregate record and a separate post-analysis record.
Lets make some dough. Looking forward to this weekend.
Just got back from snowboarding. I have one play today, which a lot of people will say is absolutely crazy. It is from one of the higher winning strategies and passed through the broad filters I referred to in the earlier posts. I will be playing 5 units on this. With regards to your units risked, I recommend you risk the amount of units that fit your risk profile.
Pick 1: Warriors/Clippers Under 227
*Bet at your own risk. BOL!
-Coach Karter
0
Hey Guys,
Just got back from snowboarding. I have one play today, which a lot of people will say is absolutely crazy. It is from one of the higher winning strategies and passed through the broad filters I referred to in the earlier posts. I will be playing 5 units on this. With regards to your units risked, I recommend you risk the amount of units that fit your risk profile.
The last couple minutes of the third quarter put this bet in the coffin. Bummer.
Keep swinging Coach. I'm new to Covers but really look forward to your Post's. Will check back tomorrow morning to see who you like in the Cle vs OKC game. Bol
0
Quote Originally Posted by CoachKarter:
The last couple minutes of the third quarter put this bet in the coffin. Bummer.
Keep swinging Coach. I'm new to Covers but really look forward to your Post's. Will check back tomorrow morning to see who you like in the Cle vs OKC game. Bol
This game was a roller coaster for OU plays. By the end of the 3rd quarter, the over looked good. Defense showed up in the fourth and with 2 minutes left, the under looked like a lock. Then, you have the clips reserve players put up an insane amount of points in the last minute. In the end, we ended up pushing.
What makes this push hurt is that the model I developed runs its analysis on historical closing lines. Therefore, all picks should be placed a minute or so before the game starts. If we did that with this game, the line would have been 228.5 and we would have won.
Going Forward:
I will keep posting my picks 30 minutes to an hour before the game, this time without a line, in order to give you guys time to run your own analysis or what not and to also give you a heads up. I recommend you place that bet shortly before the game starts, which is what I will be doing going forward.
For example, for yesterdays game it would have looked like this:
Pick 1: Warriors Under (Place bet minutes before game start)
I will base the lines on vegasinsiders sportsbook closing line.
-Coach Karter
0
So yesterday's GSW/LAC game... Where to start?
This game was a roller coaster for OU plays. By the end of the 3rd quarter, the over looked good. Defense showed up in the fourth and with 2 minutes left, the under looked like a lock. Then, you have the clips reserve players put up an insane amount of points in the last minute. In the end, we ended up pushing.
What makes this push hurt is that the model I developed runs its analysis on historical closing lines. Therefore, all picks should be placed a minute or so before the game starts. If we did that with this game, the line would have been 228.5 and we would have won.
Going Forward:
I will keep posting my picks 30 minutes to an hour before the game, this time without a line, in order to give you guys time to run your own analysis or what not and to also give you a heads up. I recommend you place that bet shortly before the game starts, which is what I will be doing going forward.
For example, for yesterdays game it would have looked like this:
Pick 1: Warriors Under (Place bet minutes before game start)
I will base the lines on vegasinsiders sportsbook closing line.
Keep swinging Coach. I'm new to Covers but really look forward to your Post's. Will check back tomorrow morning to see who you like in the Cle vs OKC game. Bol
Thanks TK. Crazy how the game turned out yesterday. Ended up with a push.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Tkowalski:
Keep swinging Coach. I'm new to Covers but really look forward to your Post's. Will check back tomorrow morning to see who you like in the Cle vs OKC game. Bol
Thanks TK. Crazy how the game turned out yesterday. Ended up with a push.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
