KMR picks essentially ate away the winnings. Depending on the ratio of your bets, you made a little money. I am going to eliminate these KMR picks. It makes me uncomfortable that they cannot be back tested. Going to stick to the model picks only going forward.
KMR picks essentially ate away the winnings. Depending on the ratio of your bets, you made a little money. I am going to eliminate these KMR picks. It makes me uncomfortable that they cannot be back tested. Going to stick to the model picks only going forward.
Going to post now since I anticipate being on the road during the games. I will still be submitting my picks slightly before the games as I usually do.
I will be introducing something new into the mix which I have been doing internally for the last week but have not shared. That something new is my model do not play (DNP).
During the last month I have been looking at losing model picks and trying to find something that will allow me to weed them out. This was incorporated in the picks in the last week (hence the 6-1 last seven days record). So far all the games I weeded out, five of them, have been losers. I do expect some winners to creep into the record.
For example, the model said to play three games today, however, of which one I labeled as a DNP. Therefore, it will be classified as DNP. When it is labeled as so I am not advocating you take the other side of the bet. I am just saying that will be a pick which will not be played.
Two model picks to play:
SAS/ORL over 203.5
Magic +16
Model Do Not Play:
Mavericks +6
DNP commentary: The model had the mavs spread as a play however I suggest you do not play it. Mavs offense eff has decreased for two straight games and still has room to move down as it is in the 35th percentile of a normal distribution curve. Mavs have played two straight games of >80th percentile of good defense and should see a reversion in that to a more normal level. Coupled with that is an improving Atlanta defense and three straight games of bad offense by the Hawks. Their defense might improve this game to bump them above the 50th percentile mark and might see a bounce bank to a more normal performing offense (maybe slightly below 50th percentile) as the mavs defense may ease up and Hawks revert.
Dumbed down DNP commentary: Much more room for mavs to mess up their chance of covering compared to the Hawks room for error.
What I will be doing is taking a 3 team +5.5 point teaser with Hawks PK instead of mavs +6. The other two model picks will be included in this teaser. I will track my DNP picks going forward. If the mode pick which is labeled as a DNP is a loser, it will then count as a win and vice versa.
This was posted off my phone, please excuse any typos.
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Going to post now since I anticipate being on the road during the games. I will still be submitting my picks slightly before the games as I usually do.
I will be introducing something new into the mix which I have been doing internally for the last week but have not shared. That something new is my model do not play (DNP).
During the last month I have been looking at losing model picks and trying to find something that will allow me to weed them out. This was incorporated in the picks in the last week (hence the 6-1 last seven days record). So far all the games I weeded out, five of them, have been losers. I do expect some winners to creep into the record.
For example, the model said to play three games today, however, of which one I labeled as a DNP. Therefore, it will be classified as DNP. When it is labeled as so I am not advocating you take the other side of the bet. I am just saying that will be a pick which will not be played.
Two model picks to play:
SAS/ORL over 203.5
Magic +16
Model Do Not Play:
Mavericks +6
DNP commentary: The model had the mavs spread as a play however I suggest you do not play it. Mavs offense eff has decreased for two straight games and still has room to move down as it is in the 35th percentile of a normal distribution curve. Mavs have played two straight games of >80th percentile of good defense and should see a reversion in that to a more normal level. Coupled with that is an improving Atlanta defense and three straight games of bad offense by the Hawks. Their defense might improve this game to bump them above the 50th percentile mark and might see a bounce bank to a more normal performing offense (maybe slightly below 50th percentile) as the mavs defense may ease up and Hawks revert.
Dumbed down DNP commentary: Much more room for mavs to mess up their chance of covering compared to the Hawks room for error.
What I will be doing is taking a 3 team +5.5 point teaser with Hawks PK instead of mavs +6. The other two model picks will be included in this teaser. I will track my DNP picks going forward. If the mode pick which is labeled as a DNP is a loser, it will then count as a win and vice versa.
This was posted off my phone, please excuse any typos.
*I will be waiting on the closing line for both these picks. I think they have moved so much and someone will take the other side shortly before the game.
Will post what lines I ended up with once the game starts.
-Coach Karter
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Pick 1: Celtics Spread -4*
Pick 2: Celtics Over 210*
*I will be waiting on the closing line for both these picks. I think they have moved so much and someone will take the other side shortly before the game.
Will post what lines I ended up with once the game starts.
*I will be waiting on the closing line for both these picks. I think they have moved so much and someone will take the other side shortly before the game.
Will post what lines I ended up with once the game starts.
-Coach Karter
Damn, this Boston line is active. Ended up taking -4 buying a half point. Looks like its going to -5.
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Quote Originally Posted by CoachKarter:
Pick 1: Celtics Spread -4*
Pick 2: Celtics Over 210*
*I will be waiting on the closing line for both these picks. I think they have moved so much and someone will take the other side shortly before the game.
Will post what lines I ended up with once the game starts.
-Coach Karter
Damn, this Boston line is active. Ended up taking -4 buying a half point. Looks like its going to -5.
Wow Coach u sure r getting a lot of replys to ur j e r k o f f posts. I do like how u gave urself a nice lead at the beginning by claiming u were twenty and eight. Do u have any idea what a clown thread u r the proud possesor of?
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Wow Coach u sure r getting a lot of replys to ur j e r k o f f posts. I do like how u gave urself a nice lead at the beginning by claiming u were twenty and eight. Do u have any idea what a clown thread u r the proud possesor of?
Wow Coach u sure r getting a lot of replys to ur j e r k o f f posts. I do like how u gave urself a nice lead at the beginning by claiming u were twenty and eight. Do u have any idea what a clown thread u r the proud possesor of?
Want2Ride,
You seem to be my biggest fan. You seem to have an obvious obsession with the starting record and serious trust issued. Add me and I'll send you proof to satisfy your hard on.
Do I care about replies, not really. Still have a winning 56% winning record from start of thread. As I said before, things will normalize.
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Quote Originally Posted by Want2ride:
Wow Coach u sure r getting a lot of replys to ur j e r k o f f posts. I do like how u gave urself a nice lead at the beginning by claiming u were twenty and eight. Do u have any idea what a clown thread u r the proud possesor of?
Want2Ride,
You seem to be my biggest fan. You seem to have an obvious obsession with the starting record and serious trust issued. Add me and I'll send you proof to satisfy your hard on.
Do I care about replies, not really. Still have a winning 56% winning record from start of thread. As I said before, things will normalize.
Had time for a write up on this. The write up does not really flow and might have typos in it. All the stats and rankings have been adjusted to reflect performance versus an opponent (i.e. if a team has a bad offensive eff against a bad def eff team, then their off eff is really worse than what was reported in box score). High % in def eff is bad defense while low % is good def. Furthermore, high % in off eff and EFG% is good and vice versa.
Write up:
Lakers come off one of their strongest games on an
efficiency perspective. EFG was 98%, Off eff was 96% and def eff was 82% on the
distribution curve. This comes from playing the Timberwolves who rank 22nd
in off eff, 26th in EFG% and 22nd in def eff. Lakers will
be facing a pelicans team that tanks worse on defense eff at 28th in
the league and 17th in EFG% def. I expect Lakers to continue putting
above average numbers against the Pelicans.
Pelicans are coming off a strong defensive performance
against the Spurs, one of the top offensive eff teams in the league. They also
had a slightly below average offensive performance against the Spurs whom are
the best defensive eff team in the league. Contrary to that, the Pelicans’ EFG%
was at the low end of the distribution curve at 9%. This is primarily due their
15% 3P% against the spurs. I expect this to rebound to average or above average
levels as the Lakers rank 30th in EFG% defense and 29th in
defensive eff.
-Coach Karter
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LAL/NO Over 211
Had time for a write up on this. The write up does not really flow and might have typos in it. All the stats and rankings have been adjusted to reflect performance versus an opponent (i.e. if a team has a bad offensive eff against a bad def eff team, then their off eff is really worse than what was reported in box score). High % in def eff is bad defense while low % is good def. Furthermore, high % in off eff and EFG% is good and vice versa.
Write up:
Lakers come off one of their strongest games on an
efficiency perspective. EFG was 98%, Off eff was 96% and def eff was 82% on the
distribution curve. This comes from playing the Timberwolves who rank 22nd
in off eff, 26th in EFG% and 22nd in def eff. Lakers will
be facing a pelicans team that tanks worse on defense eff at 28th in
the league and 17th in EFG% def. I expect Lakers to continue putting
above average numbers against the Pelicans.
Pelicans are coming off a strong defensive performance
against the Spurs, one of the top offensive eff teams in the league. They also
had a slightly below average offensive performance against the Spurs whom are
the best defensive eff team in the league. Contrary to that, the Pelicans’ EFG%
was at the low end of the distribution curve at 9%. This is primarily due their
15% 3P% against the spurs. I expect this to rebound to average or above average
levels as the Lakers rank 30th in EFG% defense and 29th in
defensive eff.
Model has two picks today. One is currently classified as a DNP and other is a play. Need to look into the DNP more. I am doing some extra analysis on historical losses today.
Pick 1: Nets ML
The DNP is the Grizzlies spread. Play just the nets one for now.
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Model has two picks today. One is currently classified as a DNP and other is a play. Need to look into the DNP more. I am doing some extra analysis on historical losses today.
Pick 1: Nets ML
The DNP is the Grizzlies spread. Play just the nets one for now.
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