The model indicated three plays today, all for the 6pm games. I will post those 30 minutes to an hour before the game.
I have also decided to include picks from my analysis of customized stats. I look for mean reversion spikes and trends which the model does not have the capacity to catch due to the criteria (need better VBA coding skills to do so). I will be classifying these and KMR Picks.
The model indicated three plays today, all for the 6pm games. I will post those 30 minutes to an hour before the game.
I have also decided to include picks from my analysis of customized stats. I look for mean reversion spikes and trends which the model does not have the capacity to catch due to the criteria (need better VBA coding skills to do so). I will be classifying these and KMR Picks.
The Model has two plays today, DET/HOU and CLE/BKN. I will post these play 30 minutes before each game. I apologize for not indicating games that have plays yesterday. I did not notice until someone said they missed the plays.
I also have two KMR picks today. For KMR, I suggest you wager around 20-30% of what you normally wager for Model picks. Another approach is entering into teasers with the model picks. Reason why is because this has not been back tested like the Model. KMR picks will be posted immediately.
The Model has two plays today, DET/HOU and CLE/BKN. I will post these play 30 minutes before each game. I apologize for not indicating games that have plays yesterday. I did not notice until someone said they missed the plays.
I also have two KMR picks today. For KMR, I suggest you wager around 20-30% of what you normally wager for Model picks. Another approach is entering into teasers with the model picks. Reason why is because this has not been back tested like the Model. KMR picks will be posted immediately.
Sorry Coach K, I might have missed what KMR Picks mean or how it works? Can you elaborate please? Thanks!
KMR picks are based on my analysis of my customized stats. The model uses these customized stats to make picks, however, it does analyze the downward/upward trends (my VBA coding skills are not as robust to do this). Therefore, KMR picks are from my analysis of opportunities where teams will either revert from a postive/negative extreme or continue performing good/bad on the offensive and defensive side.
I suggest wagering less money on the KMR picks because it has not been backtested like the model.
Example of KMR post: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=102228234
I posted that pick on bulls spread but the model did not indicate this as a game to play that day.
Hope this helps.
-Coach Karter
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Quote Originally Posted by Walter_Adams:
Sorry Coach K, I might have missed what KMR Picks mean or how it works? Can you elaborate please? Thanks!
KMR picks are based on my analysis of my customized stats. The model uses these customized stats to make picks, however, it does analyze the downward/upward trends (my VBA coding skills are not as robust to do this). Therefore, KMR picks are from my analysis of opportunities where teams will either revert from a postive/negative extreme or continue performing good/bad on the offensive and defensive side.
I suggest wagering less money on the KMR picks because it has not been backtested like the model.
Example of KMR post: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=102228234
I posted that pick on bulls spread but the model did not indicate this as a game to play that day.
Haha, like the clear as mud analogy. This may be more helpful. The model looks at variations of two variables to identify winning strategies. However, KMR picks look at 3,4, or 5. The model does not look at more than 2 variables because the coding just becomes a pain in the behind.
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Quote Originally Posted by Walter_Adams:
Clear as mud! Thanks Coach, appreciate it!
Haha, like the clear as mud analogy. This may be more helpful. The model looks at variations of two variables to identify winning strategies. However, KMR picks look at 3,4, or 5. The model does not look at more than 2 variables because the coding just becomes a pain in the behind.
The Model has two plays today, DET/HOU and CLE/BKN. I will post these play 30 minutes before each game. I apologize for not indicating games that have plays yesterday. I did not notice until someone said they missed the plays.
I also have two KMR picks today. For KMR, I suggest you wager around 20-30% of what you normally wager for Model picks. Another approach is entering into teasers with the model picks. Reason why is because this has not been back tested like the Model. KMR picks will be posted immediately.
The Model has two plays today, DET/HOU and CLE/BKN. I will post these play 30 minutes before each game. I apologize for not indicating games that have plays yesterday. I did not notice until someone said they missed the plays.
I also have two KMR picks today. For KMR, I suggest you wager around 20-30% of what you normally wager for Model picks. Another approach is entering into teasers with the model picks. Reason why is because this has not been back tested like the Model. KMR picks will be posted immediately.
Model Pick #2: HOU/DET Under 208.5 (This method has a 72% historical three year historical win rate. I will be placing 1.5-2 units on this) This was the same method for the PHX/IND game yesterday. Does not come as often.
-Coach Karter
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Quote Originally Posted by CoachKarter:
Model Pick #1: BKN/CLE Under 197.5
Model Pick #2: HOU/DET Under 208.5 (This method has a 72% historical three year historical win rate. I will be placing 1.5-2 units on this) This was the same method for the PHX/IND game yesterday. Does not come as often.
Busy day today so I am going to post all picks at once.
Have 4 model picks today and 2 KMR picks. KMR picks are pretty much like leans. Bet lower on KMRs than you do on model picks. I do between 25-30% or just include them teasers.
Busy day today so I am going to post all picks at once.
Have 4 model picks today and 2 KMR picks. KMR picks are pretty much like leans. Bet lower on KMRs than you do on model picks. I do between 25-30% or just include them teasers.
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