Quote Originally Posted by FiatLux4:
What's up brotha? Just got a chance to read through the whole thread. Can I say dayyyum!? You really out did yourself on this one. I mean my goodness, that is many emphatic reasons to make this play. I was shocked to see it. My only significant loss last week was Pistons ML against the Sixers so the human tendency to back off is looming.
For what it's worth, I have this line at -2.5/-3. The Bucks are actually better ATS than Detroit and have much better recent form. I'm not using the same logic as the Nets/Cavs game but by my numbers, this game is an identical 3.5 points more than what I thought the line should be. Forget all that but the synchronicity is noted.
You dropped many bombs in all of this, all of which are relevant points but the most lucid point that grabbed me was:
What does this all mean? The REAL tankers, the ones who KNOW what they will get for all the tanking are NOT the SIXERS OR BUCKS. It's the Pistons.
Ding. Ding. Ding.
Coupled with this:
The Pistons now have a FOUR GAME CUSHION between them and the Cavs (who might just keep on winning) which is the difference between the eighth (keep the pick) and the ninth spot (lose the pick). SO THEY CAN SPARE A WIN AGAINST THE BUCKS.
That is some sure fire material. Now the only thing to me is whether or not they cover the number. I'm not big into large ML favorites in the first place and Saturday was a rare exception that reiterated why I do not do so. A ML play tonight would need to be parlayed with something else for me despite that the Bucks have almost a bagel of a chance to cash on the ML at this point.
In the end, you and I certainly won't be on opposite sides, this is a matter of risk/reward. All signs to me indicate that you are correct on your suppositions. If that lingering Saturday beat down wasn't present, my confidence would be full force.
Actually, perhaps that in itself is it. The correlation of Saturday to two days later, being able to afford a win now in an entirely different spot against an equally bottom feeding team who has no record to break/save.
Either way man, respect, props, and gratitude! Seriously you out did yourself in a major way.
Good to see you
The ML is incredible in this game but really, who can play that? For every ten ML's you get right the 11th you go large on will bust you. It simply is not an option tonight, unless it's parlayed as you noted. Then you have an excuse to take it with a side of your liking.
Onto the other point about the Sixers: this spot has arisen precisely because of what happened to the Pistons on Saturday.
As a matter of fact, I started thinking about this game in the first quarter after Jennings got tossed (it was over right there).
From near demise comes incredible opportunity. The books know many went large on the Pistons and now this line is deflated by 1.5 pts by my estimate. It is still a hefty price to pay for a Detroit backer vs. Philly. The books know this. The gutsy play is actually Detroit minus the points, and you need guts to back them after what we saw Saturday.
How can the Pistons come home to a fanbase that just witnessed it lose to a team with a losing streak that was the worst, not in the NBA, but major competitive sport history?
It's like they assumed the legacy of the streak themselves.
And the lifeless bucks are just hideous. I was SHOCKED to see them as only 9 point dogs vs. the Heat. I thought that line could have hit 13. The Heat just abused them. Toyed with them. Made them cry uncle...at home.
It was then that I saw all the give up I needed on the bucks side in addition to what is essentially 4 starters going down (2 in mysterious ways) in 4 days.
If this was the last game of the season I'd be a bit worried. Players have their mind on the offseason. But there is a little basketball to be played here and the Pistons have a chance to redeem themselves, albeit very slightly tonight with a 10-12 point win at home. I had this number nowhere near three and was more towards 7.5 knowing they'd never make us lay 8 with the pistons (although the kings did lay 9 to the bucks and walloped them, and they are terrible).
And the Knicks at noon? Bucks were never even close in that game, a total beating pillar to post. I can't tell you what an Achilles heel these noon games have been. Bring the bucks in and it was like noon start times never existed.
The Bucks are the elixir of life to any and all teams.
It just comes down to how hard the pistons want to play. I know Jennings will. If Drummond and Monroe give it their all we will be fine.
Standing Ovation for that write up! 
Imagine if Mozart lived in the modern era with all the temptations and distractions. He surely wouldn't be an artist of any kind and almost certainly would gamble...just like us...
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