Dare I say this is the BIGGEST WRITE-UP Covers.com has ever seen? TANK-A-PALOOZA 2014! Bucks@Pistons

Let's do this bro

If I was, I would have been capping religiously every night. I'm on here once a week and I am getting aggressive to find more spots recently because the season is ending and these teams will be long gone when the playoffs roll around.

For what it's worth, I have this line at -2.5/-3. The Bucks are actually better ATS than Detroit and have much better recent form. I'm not using the same logic as the Nets/Cavs game but by my numbers, this game is an identical 3.5 points more than what I thought the line should be. Forget all that but the synchronicity is noted.

You dropped many bombs in all of this, all of which are relevant points but the most lucid point that grabbed me was:

Ding. Ding. Ding. 

Coupled with this:

That is some sure fire material. Now the only thing to me is whether or not they cover the number. I'm not big into large ML favorites in the first place and Saturday was a rare exception that reiterated why I do not do so. A ML play tonight would need to be parlayed with something else for me despite that the Bucks have almost a bagel of a chance to cash on the ML at this point.

In the end, you and I certainly won't be on opposite sides, this is a matter of risk/reward. All signs to me indicate that you are correct on your suppositions. If that lingering Saturday beat down wasn't present, my confidence would be full force.

Actually, perhaps that in itself is it. The correlation of Saturday to two days later, being able to afford a win now in an entirely different spot against an equally bottom feeding team who has no record to break/save.

Either way man, respect, props, and gratitude! Seriously you out did yourself in a major way. 

@milesmoney - hooks are a tough call. Spreads become more valuable  for every .5 greater than 4. This number is > 4.

That is why I have consistently capped games <= 4. Hooks aren't really involved in numbers below that for the overwhelming percentage of bets.

It's more a piece of mind thing. I have bought them in the past just as the ultimate insurance, but I don't cap these games to get over .5 point here or there. If  you prefer it occasionally, it's not a bankroll buster. Do it consistently and you have to hit a higher percentage of bets which adds to the level of skill you have to have in building a bankroll.

Good to see you

The ML is incredible in this game but really, who can play that? For every ten ML's you get right the 11th you go large on will bust you. It simply is not an option tonight, unless it's parlayed as you noted. Then you have an excuse to take it with a side of your liking.

Onto the other point about the Sixers: this spot has arisen precisely because of what happened to the Pistons on Saturday.

As a matter of fact, I started thinking about this game in the first quarter after Jennings got tossed (it was over right there). 

 

From near demise comes incredible opportunity. The books know many went large on the Pistons and now this line is deflated by 1.5 pts by my estimate. It is still a hefty price to pay for a Detroit backer vs. Philly. The books know this. The gutsy play is actually Detroit minus the points, and you need guts to back them after what we saw Saturday.

How can the Pistons come home to a fanbase that just witnessed it lose to a team with a losing streak that was the worst, not in the NBA, but major competitive sport history?

It's like they assumed the legacy of the streak themselves. 

And the lifeless bucks are just hideous. I was SHOCKED to see them as only 9 point dogs vs. the Heat. I thought that line could have hit 13. The Heat just abused them. Toyed with them. Made them cry uncle...at home. 

It was then that I saw all the give up I needed on the bucks side in addition to what is essentially 4 starters going down (2 in mysterious ways) in 4 days.

If this was the last game of the season I'd be a bit worried. Players have their mind on the offseason. But there is a little basketball to be played here and the Pistons have a chance to redeem themselves, albeit very slightly tonight with a 10-12 point win at home. I had this number nowhere near three and was more towards 7.5 knowing they'd never make us lay 8 with the pistons (although the kings did lay 9 to the bucks and walloped them, and they are terrible).

And the Knicks at noon? Bucks were never even close in that game, a total beating pillar to post. I can't tell you what an Achilles heel these noon games have been. Bring the bucks in and it was like noon start times never existed.

The Bucks are the elixir of life to any and all teams.

It just comes down to how hard the pistons want to play. I know Jennings will. If Drummond and Monroe give it their all we will be fine.

@unit Imagine if Mozart lived in the modern era with all the temptations and distractions. He surely wouldn't be an artist of any kind and almost certainly would gamble...just like us...

@why

I have some of this parlayed with them to win vs. the Jazz. 

But that game would be about 95% guaranteed tonight had they lost to the Warriors. I was sorry to see them win for betting purposes.

It would have been a write-up had the warriors won. Not so anymore. All they had to do was let curry and Klay shoot threes and they attacked the basket.

They have short term memory because the 3 is exactly how they beat the Knicks in the Garden. The Knicks are incapable of guarding it and the warriors are the masters.

Awful offensive gameplan by Jackson and they gave one away ruing what would have been as sure as a thing as the Kings spot was.

The reason I had the line so low was because of recent form (Bucks 8-4 ATS L12, Pistons 4-9 L13). Also perhaps due to Milwaukee playing the Clippers, Golden State, and Portland tight.....not to mention what happened Saturday night in Philly. That to me explains why the Bucks were not double digit dogs against a Miami team that simply can't cover recently. Are they hideous? Of course, but fading them recently has put dents in anyone's pocketbook. 

So you had them at eight points eh? That is substantial considering that line has appeared only three times this season in favor of Detroit. One was the third game of the season against Boston and the other two were home naturally to Philly and Cleveland. The first time the Bucks were in town, Detroit was favored by 4.5 (yes that game in December was long ago) Obviously the Bucks are right in that tier of garbage but not so much recently. Six to me was a lot, eight seemed almost impossible. Of course, how we arrive at our numbers is subjective but I digress.

Regardless I am happy to be on the same side as you. Like you said, Jennings is for sure coming to play to night, the rest of the team should be after the recent embarrassment. 

Let's do it homie.

DISGUSTING THE WAY THESE MOTHERFUCCKERS PLAY FOR PISTONS

They're watching the game bunch of garbage

Interest level is ZERO by the Pistons…it is VERY clear watching this garbage fest.  

Don't waste or chase this second half…can't trust who is gonna throw up bricks acting like this is Globetrotter basketball or who the hell the Pistons are gonna play 2H.  Monroe Jennings and Drummond(foul trouble) and Singler played ohhh about 20 percent of the 2nd quarter

This team clearly got the word--tank it  Why are the Bucks shooting and passing so well?  Cause the Pistons are letting them play globetrotter style!