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DK NBA PLAYOFFS CONF FINALS

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Posted: #51

Celts ??

 
Legend
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Posted: #52
hedged out the Over with Under 207.5 hoping for a middle as i kept seeing the live total going down and became a brickfest. Cavs looked like they were quitting again had a bad feeling.... 

Small loss on that one but winner on the rest! Goooo Celtics!! 
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All-Star
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Posted: #53
DK u still like warriors game 2?
 
Legend
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Posted: #54
as much as i hate this team i am leaning Rockets. They have to win tommorow they Just need to put more effort in playing more than 1 half. Liked how the Rockets started but they need to pound it inside , maybe feed the ball more to Capella? and rely a little bit less on the 3 ball if they arent hitting it
  

Sticking with my theory. One series goes 2-0 and the other 1-1. I think the homecourt will give the Rockets a split... but wouldnt be surprised if Warrioes go 2-0 either as long as Rockets make the necessary adjustments
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Posted: #55
DK....Just wanted to give you props on your nice run.........leaning Rockets too....but am very scared to pull the trigger..I hate the Iso-Ball play......
 
Legend
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Posted: #56
Thank you lmb , im enjoying this years playoffs. I will probably go small on this play tommorow only because i am not a fan of the Rockets and dont deserve alot of my hardearned cash but to me they are the right play. 
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Legend
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Posted: #57
One piece of info i was going to share wirh you before tip off but didnt have time..

The Cavs when getting blown out by 20+ pts this season are 2-5 SU, 0-7 ATS the next game... they are 0-4 SUATS on the road....

Now 2-6 SU, 0-8 ATS. 

One of the other reasons i backed the C's again. 
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Legend
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Posted: #58
Lebron James has been down 0-2 in the playoffs 6 times.. each of those times the Cavs did not have homecourt advantage. He is 4-2 SUATS in game 3 when down 0-2. In the 4 games he has won they were by a margin of 6, 9, 24 and 30 pt. That 30 pt victory was against the Warriors which led to the most improbable Finals upset in history and that 24 pt win happened against the Big 3 in Boston in 2008 playoffs with Celtics hanging on in 7 games. Both series went the full distance! Which side of history will repeat itself?

The two games where the Cavs lost game 3 to go 0-3 happened in the Finals last year against the Warriors and Lebron's first Finals appearance against the Spurs. Will Boston be the 3rd team?
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Legend
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Hope77:

Good Luck DK !

Didnt see your post! Thank you buddy 

BOL hope 
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Posted: #60
I’m pumped for this game DK. We will get to see the leagues hand tonite. All the hard work of creating this  perception that Houston is a formidable opponent comes to a head here. It’s a must win for the rockets but imo, it’s a must win for the league. If the warriors go up 2-0, the series is over. Does the league want a quick series after all that hard work in the regular season? I don’t think so. As you know, I feel these games aren’t played straight up so tonite so if the rockets are to win, it will have just as much to do with the warriors and their approach and going through the motions than it does with the rockets. I took Houston in game 1 thinking we’d have a split after two games and that can still happen but it’s gonna be tough. There is a script but which one is it? Is it allowing this dominance of the dubs to continue thus pushing more super teams to be created or is it to create an entertaining series that piggy backs the storyline of Houston being this formidable opponent to the dubs? We will see.....
 
Legend
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

I’m pumped for this game DK. We will get to see the leagues hand tonite. All the hard work of creating this  perception that Houston is a formidable opponent comes to a head here. It’s a must win for the rockets but imo, it’s a must win for the league. If the warriors go up 2-0, the series is over. Does the league want a quick series after all that hard work in the regular season? I don’t think so. As you know, I feel these games aren’t played straight up so tonite so if the rockets are to win, it will have just as much to do with the warriors and their approach and going through the motions than it does with the rockets. I took Houston in game 1 thinking we’d have a split after two games and that can still happen but it’s gonna be tough. There is a script but which one is it? Is it allowing this dominance of the dubs to continue thus pushing more super teams to be created or is it to create an entertaining series that piggy backs the storyline of Houston being this formidable opponent to the dubs? We will see.....

I like juicy storylines just as much as you but not as fanatical about them and what the league wants. Dont want to overthink it and keeping it simple as possible. if there is a game houston remotely has a chance of winning then it is at home in game 2.. forget about game 1 that is already in the books and forget about game 5 we havent got there yet. Rockets focus has to be game 2. If they cant win game 2 it speaks of their incompetence which i have long suspected. Salvage a split. Would be embarassing for an improved Rocket team with CP3 to get swept in 4 when past inferior Rockets team managed at least a win. 

Win now and we still got a series even though we already know the result. the Warriors can play god at this point and decide how this series will end and how long they want to prolong the inevitable. Always appreciate the alternative viewpoints Achilles. Maybe the books get to clean up again tonight after giving away a freebie the other night 
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Legend
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Posted: #62
3 ways i see the Cavs/C's playing out...

Zig-zag route
Cavs win game 3, C's win game 4, Cavs win game 5, C's win game 6

Homecourt route
Cavs win game 3 and 4, C's win game 5, Cavs win game 6, C's win game 7

Double-double route
Cavs win game 3 and 4. C's win game 5 and 6

Originally predicted C's in 7, but im seeing C's in 6 now, C's in 5 is possible if they continue protecting homecourt and steal one on the road. I think they can get one in Cleveland. 

I wonder how LBJ does when his team is on the brink, if he does decent in those situations i can see the series extended by 1 game.

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Legend
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Posted: #63
Play

Rockets -1.5 *small*

If i see a live Rockets +ML i will take a small shot on that too. No need to go big, wasnt planning on playing this game anyway so i will not sweat it and enjoy a little action. There is only 1 team i care about backing and its not the Rockets

Bol fellas!
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Legend
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Posted: #64
Man what a great night in sports!

Rockets win( im 4-1 in these conf finals now), hit my baseball parlay: had a 4 teamer with Yanks but got PPD'd so became 3 teamer at +1100. Wouldve been +2800 with Yanks. Kinda bummed about that but maybe a blessing in disguise but i'll take it and VGK covered the pucklike on an empty net last second  took the chance on the live line at +200 with under 5 min to go. Good day for the city of Vegas! 
So stoked
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Legend
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Posted: #65
Thanks pdub my brotha! I'll take them if CC is still pitching. I think play resumes Friday i believe. Team been off for several days now theyll be fresher by then..
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Captain
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Posted: #66
Way to go DK....Tailed you on Houston.....and was and faded the dodgers too.....Get it tommorow....
 
Legend
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Posted: #67
Yes! How bout them fish they walked all over Buehler?!!  
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Legend
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Posted: #68
rough day on the diamonds, thought playing some bases would help me during my downtime from NBA. need the Rockies and Tigers to salvage my night... 


guess in the meantime i'll study up game 3 to help ease my mind.... 
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Legend
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Posted: #69
Lets talk about The Cavs ats record... 

They are just barely covering 30% of their home games this season including playoffs with a shoddy 14-32-1 ats record. Out of those 32 ats losses, 19 of those were by 6 pts or less margin of victory and the rest were as a result of straight-up losses. 

Its no secret that Cavs have been a bad ats bet over the years as long as Lebron isnt a dog(in which his team will show up most of the time). The Cavs started off as a decent but still below average bet, ranked 19th in ats in 2014 with 39-43 record but every year since it has dropped. 23rd in 2015, 27th in 2016 and dead last in 2017 with a 32-49-1 record(the worst in Lebron's career). This is regular season we are talking about, we know the Cavs dont really care much about regular season they just go through the motions and do just enough to win. 

The playoffs are a different animal however. The Cavs and Heat during Lebron's 7 year run have generally been a good bet and each year has posted .500 or better record. With the Heat, Lebron posted a 50-36-1 ats in the playoffs. With the current Cavs, Lebron posted an 33-25-1 ats record not counting this year. Clearly not as good as his Miami numbers but still top 5 if you average it out. This just goes to show Lebron's thorough domination of the East since 2010. 

But clearly something is different this year, not only do the Cavs have the worst regular season ats record but they also have the worst playoff ats record too at 4-9 ats. This beats his ats worst 4-7 record back in 2009 when his Cavs got beat by the Celtics in the semifinals. This is only the 2nd time in LBJ's postseason career that his team has posted a below .500 ats record. In the past we have let the record slide because Lebron has gone to 7 straight Finals. If you thought the Cavs were a dubious team, then they are even more dubious now.
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Legend
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Posted: #70
One thing that has me curious

Cavs are 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS on 3 days rest
Celtics are 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS on 3 days rest

Cavs have already lost 2 of those already in the playoffs, at home to Pacers and on road to Celtics. They lost to Wizards at home after All-star break and to Warriors on road at Christmas. They beat the Celtics in home opener but didnt cover. 

Celtics have won 2 of those in the playoffs on 3 days rest. Of course they were at home to Bucks and Cavs. On the road with 3 days rest they are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS in rrgular season, they lost to Cavs but covered. They have yet to play on the road with 3 days rest in playoffs. 
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Captain
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Posted: #71
DK, any read on Rockets/Dubs?.....leaning Warriors but very early.....
 
Legend
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Posted: #72
hey lmb,  my gut says this game could be by single digits unlike the 1st two games. other than that, not much else i can gather except its kind of unusual to have a game 3 at the Oracle usually been the other way around.

 focused on the C's game at the moment.
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Legend
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Posted: #73
after careful consideration of my options for game 3, it only makes sense and the smart thing to do is continue backing the Celtics in game 3 and possibly game 4. 

the performance percentages this season outweigh the public opinion and situational angle/trend.

the Celtics may be the public choice now for game 3 based on how the first two game performances went down but i also believe partly its because the Cavs have burned backers all season betting them at home so they might think Cavs will win game 3 but not cover. I don't blame them. the prevailing wisdom/opinion still believe the Celtics are playing over their heads and are eventually waiting for them to come back down to reality. 

Lastly, the public isn't always wrong with their bets. look at the pacers series i believe the public backed the pacers alot vs the Cavs in that series if i recall. If we want to look at the fixed or conspiratorial side of things of what the books want then i think it is in the books best interest to hook the public back on and give them something to look forward to then pull the rug out from under next time. 

The situational angle supports a bounce-back, pull out all the stops, double digit domination home game for the Cavaliers. the problem is...this team is not cohesive enough nor do they have enough depth to put teams away. This Cavs team is seriously lacking on the defensive side. that was a problem for them last year but they got away with it as the East was super weak. Then they got exposed when they played the Warriors in the Finals. This year's squad is even more deficient on defense now than they were before and pales in comparison to the championship squad that shocked the world a few years ago. 

The Cavs were hungrier because of losing to the Warriors in the Finals the year before and they had a much better defense and roster depth then. Losing an important piece like Kyrie had to really hurt/regress this team back. If you're expecting the Cavs to come back like they did against the Warriors i think you are in for a surprise. 

Short story: The Cavs will most likely win game 3, but i will not rule out the possibility that Celtics could still come away with game 3 just like they did against the 76ers. i took the spread on that one but was damning myself for missing out on the ML. there is no quit or lack of hussle with this Celtic team. Like i said only two teams have gone 3-0 against Lebron in his career, and that is the Spurs and Warriors in the Finals. Celtics are in a challenging spot but it's tough for me to swallow the 6.5 pts. that the Cavs are giving.

The Pick:

Celtics +6.5 (med)
Celtics +240 ML (small)

approach for game 3. bet Celtics live if double digit spread presents itself, +12.5 or more is favorable. bet Celtics 2nd half if they get behind during halftime. If Celtics don't cover game 3, i will back them again game 4. not deviating from the plan i set out.

i think their will be one game the public gets right this time after getting swept in game 2 and i believe they may be right with the Celtics. They will then put their money on the Warriors to bounce back huge 

BOL fellas  


Sip on that plus money honey!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #74
This game is one that there could be referee influences involved. It may be better to keep an eye on the referee assignments and in-game calls before placing the pregame/live bets.
 
 
Legend
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Posted: #75
good suggestion. that's why i'm going to in-game wager the rest of my bets and play it by ear. bol bud 
Sip on that plus money honey!
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