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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:25 PM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by alohac75:

As Always Bodio Good Luck on your plays today!

Thanks Aloha. Back at 'ya!

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lacral

MVP

Joined: May, 2005

Posts: 16804

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:28 PM ET #52

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livin2gamble

Veteran

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 3890

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:30 PM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

I'm thinking the same thing. Want to see tomorrow's DET/IND line but definitely going to look to back the Pacers in that one. Hopefully Detroit blows out Houston tonight to give us some 'line-value'...

T Mac will be fired up for this game and no matter what the score is Pistons will loose tomorrow, btw the line is -7.5 o/u 202 for that ot loss a week ago

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crowndaking

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 4255

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:30 PM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

#2: Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5

At first glance, the line in this game looked a bit low to me. I checked the line in the previous meeting between these 2 squads (November 3rd – early in the season), and Okie City were -8.5 road favorites in that one (Clippers won the game). Normally, with ‘standard adjustments’ you’d expect them to be -14.5 point favorites at home but not so. Okie City is again -8.5 point favorites, but this time at home. Hmmm… Let’s analyze this a bit. Obviously, Okie City was over-valued by the bookmakers early in the season while Clippers were under-valued. I definitely agree there. But now we have a ‘revenge’ scenario for Thunder, while Clipps are playing without their leading scorer, Eric Gordon. Still, the line is only at -8.5. Were the bookies 6 points off early in the season? I definitely feel that there’s some ‘line-value’ here, albeit not the full 6 points from the hypothetical ‘standard adjustments’ scenario.

Speaking of ‘revenge’, Thunder are 15-7 ATS this season revenging a loss. This team takes those losses ‘to heart’, makes the necessary adjustments, and plays with an added edge. Obviously the first game was very early in the season but I don’t expect Durant to forget. Why? Well, because he had one of his worst performances of the year in that one. KD went 6-24 form the field. 0-10 from the 3PT line, with 16 points and 6 turnovers. Westbrook wasn’t much better going 5-16 with 16 points. When your 2 superstars combine to shoot 27% from the field, you’re not going to win many games. Fortunately, it doesn’t happen very often, and I’m willing to bet their performances will be much better tonight. I’ve mentioned earlier that Eric Gordon is not playing tonight. Well, in that first meeting he went 10 for 17 for 27 points, 5 rebs and 4 assists. His production will be hard to replicate. In addition, Baron Davis missed that first game. I actually think it’s an advantage for the Thunder to have Davis play, as I just don’t see him being able to hang with the quicker and younger Westbrook. I expect Westbrook to drive to the basket all game long, kicking out to Green and Durant for open looks.

I know I’ve mentioned Durant’s and Westbrook’s performance in the first meeting, but as a team Okie City went 37% from the field and 15% from 3PT line. Clips shot 53% in that one with 50% from ‘downtown’. I expect a ‘regression to the mean’ to occur for both teams tonight. One positive from that first meeting was the 16 to 7 discrepancy in offensive rebounds in Thunder’s favor. As poorly as they played, the fact that they were able to get 16 offensive boards is a very good sign for today’s game. I know Kaman is playing, but he played in that first meeting as well, and was a complete non-factor: 2 for 9 for 4 points and 6 rebounds (1 offensive) in 24 minutes. He won’t be a difference-maker tonight, as he’s just gradually getting acclimated to the team again.

Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog, 1-4 ATS following a win, and 0-4 ATS playing a team with a .600+ winning percentage. Thunder is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games playing a team with a losing record, indicating that they’ve been ‘taking care of business’ against inferior opponents.

I expect Durant and Co. to play really well. Even though Durant struggled in the first meeting with the Clippers I expect him to be much better tonight. He did warm up for this one with 34 points on Sunday, didn’t he?

#3: Denver Nuggets -1

Now that Carmelo has ‘taken his talents’ to New York, there are 2 ways to look at this Grizz/Nuggz matchup: 1) Denver is short-handed and in ‘shock’ so Grizz will get an easy win or 2) Denver is still a talented club and playing at home, as the remaining players will want to showcase their talents in front of the home fans. I actually think this one will play out based on scenario #2.

First of all, Carmelo leaving is a major blow for this team, but it’s not like it was unexpected. The city, the fans, and the players were prepared for this. There’s a reason why the fans would ‘boo’ Carmelo at home. He turned his back on them. Well, today I expect the fans to come out strong, and really show some support for the remaining players. There is nice talent on this squad and guys like Nene, Afflalo, Martin, JR Smith, and Ty Lawson will step up their games. With fans’ support, these guys will be very motivated tonight.

Second of all, the ‘depleted’ bench shouldn’t be too big of a problem. These guys had 5 days off and should be rested tonight. In addition, this is a young team so I don’t expect the players (not Martin, but ‘Bird-Man’ should provide solid backup for him) to get too tired playing a few extra minutes tonight.

Third of all, Ty Lawson should be a fine replacement for Billups. In Lawson’s 6 starts this year, he shot 52% from the field, 50% from 3PT line, 93% from the FT line, scoring 16 ppg with 6 apg and 3.7 rpg, averaging 35 minutes-per-game. He should be able to effectively run this offense tonight, as Afflalo, Nene, and Smith pick up the scoring in this one.

Finally, just want to point out that even though Denver lost their superstar, so did the Grizzlies. Rudy Gay won’t be playing in this one, as he’s out for a few weeks with a shoulder injury.

Bottom line is we have a Denver team that is 22-7 (76%) at home this season playing a Grizz squad that is only 12-18 (40%) on the road. At the same time Memphis has only won here 1 time, going 1-24 in the last 25 meetings, losing 7 straight in Denver. Even without ‘Melo, Denver has plenty of talent to win this game. These teams last met here on December 5th, with Denver being a -6.5 point favorite. So, now we have both ‘Melo and Gay out for this one, and the line is at Denver -1? Is Carmelo worth 5 points? Possibly. But how much is Rudy Gay worth? There’s definite ‘line-value’ on the Nuggz tonight and I expect Carmelo’s former teammates to make a ‘statement’.

_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFL: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFLP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 145-112 @ 56% for +$23,730

"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."

Great stuff supra

Really like the Nuggets play in this spot!

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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

#2: Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5

At first glance, the line in this game looked a bit low to me. I checked the line in the previous meeting between these 2 squads (November 3rd – early in the season), and Okie City were -8.5 road favorites in that one (Clippers won the game). Normally, with ‘standard adjustments’ you’d expect them to be -14.5 point favorites at home but not so. Okie City is again -8.5 point favorites, but this time at home. Hmmm… Let’s analyze this a bit. Obviously, Okie City was over-valued by the bookmakers early in the season while Clippers were under-valued. I definitely agree there. But now we have a ‘revenge’ scenario for Thunder, while Clipps are playing without their leading scorer, Eric Gordon. Still, the line is only at -8.5. Were the bookies 6 points off early in the season? I definitely feel that there’s some ‘line-value’ here, albeit not the full 6 points from the hypothetical ‘standard adjustments’ scenario.

Speaking of ‘revenge’, Thunder are 15-7 ATS this season revenging a loss. This team takes those losses ‘to heart’, makes the necessary adjustments, and plays with an added edge. Obviously the first game was very early in the season but I don’t expect Durant to forget. Why? Well, because he had one of his worst performances of the year in that one. KD went 6-24 form the field. 0-10 from the 3PT line, with 16 points and 6 turnovers. Westbrook wasn’t much better going 5-16 with 16 points. When your 2 superstars combine to shoot 27% from the field, you’re not going to win many games. Fortunately, it doesn’t happen very often, and I’m willing to bet their performances will be much better tonight. I’ve mentioned earlier that Eric Gordon is not playing tonight. Well, in that first meeting he went 10 for 17 for 27 points, 5 rebs and 4 assists. His production will be hard to replicate. In addition, Baron Davis missed that first game. I actually think it’s an advantage for the Thunder to have Davis play, as I just don’t see him being able to hang with the quicker and younger Westbrook. I expect Westbrook to drive to the basket all game long, kicking out to Green and Durant for open looks.

I know I’ve mentioned Durant’s and Westbrook’s performance in the first meeting, but as a team Okie City went 37% from the field and 15% from 3PT line. Clips shot 53% in that one with 50% from ‘downtown’. I expect a ‘regression to the mean’ to occur for both teams tonight. One positive from that first meeting was the 16 to 7 discrepancy in offensive rebounds in Thunder’s favor. As poorly as they played, the fact that they were able to get 16 offensive boards is a very good sign for today’s game. I know Kaman is playing, but he played in that first meeting as well, and was a complete non-factor: 2 for 9 for 4 points and 6 rebounds (1 offensive) in 24 minutes. He won’t be a difference-maker tonight, as he’s just gradually getting acclimated to the team again.

Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog, 1-4 ATS following a win, and 0-4 ATS playing a team with a .600+ winning percentage. Thunder is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games playing a team with a losing record, indicating that they’ve been ‘taking care of business’ against inferior opponents.

I expect Durant and Co. to play really well. Even though Durant struggled in the first meeting with the Clippers I expect him to be much better tonight. He did warm up for this one with 34 points on Sunday, didn’t he?

#3: Denver Nuggets -1

Now that Carmelo has ‘taken his talents’ to New York, there are 2 ways to look at this Grizz/Nuggz matchup: 1) Denver is short-handed and in ‘shock’ so Grizz will get an easy win or 2) Denver is still a talented club and playing at home, as the remaining players will want to showcase their talents in front of the home fans. I actually think this one will play out based on scenario #2.

First of all, Carmelo leaving is a major blow for this team, but it’s not like it was unexpected. The city, the fans, and the players were prepared for this. There’s a reason why the fans would ‘boo’ Carmelo at home. He turned his back on them. Well, today I expect the fans to come out strong, and really show some support for the remaining players. There is nice talent on this squad and guys like Nene, Afflalo, Martin, JR Smith, and Ty Lawson will step up their games. With fans’ support, these guys will be very motivated tonight.

Second of all, the ‘depleted’ bench shouldn’t be too big of a problem. These guys had 5 days off and should be rested tonight. In addition, this is a young team so I don’t expect the players (not Martin, but ‘Bird-Man’ should provide solid backup for him) to get too tired playing a few extra minutes tonight.

Third of all, Ty Lawson should be a fine replacement for Billups. In Lawson’s 6 starts this year, he shot 52% from the field, 50% from 3PT line, 93% from the FT line, scoring 16 ppg with 6 apg and 3.7 rpg, averaging 35 minutes-per-game. He should be able to effectively run this offense tonight, as Afflalo, Nene, and Smith pick up the scoring in this one.

Finally, just want to point out that even though Denver lost their superstar, so did the Grizzlies. Rudy Gay won’t be playing in this one, as he’s out for a few weeks with a shoulder injury.

Bottom line is we have a Denver team that is 22-7 (76%) at home this season playing a Grizz squad that is only 12-18 (40%) on the road. At the same time Memphis has only won here 1 time, going 1-24 in the last 25 meetings, losing 7 straight in Denver. Even without ‘Melo, Denver has plenty of talent to win this game. These teams last met here on December 5th, with Denver being a -6.5 point favorite. So, now we have both ‘Melo and Gay out for this one, and the line is at Denver -1? Is Carmelo worth 5 points? Possibly. But how much is Rudy Gay worth? There’s definite ‘line-value’ on the Nuggz tonight and I expect Carmelo’s former teammates to make a ‘statement’.

_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFL: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFLP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 145-112 @ 56% for +$23,730

"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."

Great stuff supra

Really like the Nuggets play in this spot!

KasperNV

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 13851

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:35 PM ET #55

I like the plays

Second mouse gets the cheese.

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:36 PM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by livin2gamble:

T Mac will be fired up for this game and no matter what the score is Pistons will loose tomorrow, btw the line is -7.5 o/u 202 for that ot loss a week ago

-7.5? Yes, that's probably a good 'projected' line but I'm hoping it comes out -5.5 Pacers....

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:37 PM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by crowndaking:

Great stuff supra

Really like the Nuggets play in this spot!

GL!

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:37 PM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by KasperNV:

I like the plays

Me too. GL buddy

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Werker

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 3640

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:39 PM ET #59

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

Thanks buddy.

R-E-S-P-E-C-T for all here on covers and everywhere else!

Good luck tonight! Go Pacers and Nuggz! (..and Okie City of course)

Haha. Of course OKC. I'm a big OKC fan. Will be rooting for them to crush every night.

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chasman

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 620

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:41 PM ET #60

You worked over-time today, Bodio. Great job, 3 outstanding write-ups: I liked the Wizards until you convinced me the errors of my thinking. As I was reading I'm thinking 'well maybe I'll just sit this game out'. By the time I finished you had convinced me: The Pacers are the pick.

I also like Denver for many of the same reasons you stated and btw I think Denver got the best of the trade and in 2 years it will be proven by Denver having the better team.

The Thunder. I like your arguements. I just can't pull the trigger on this one. I'll sit it out and wish you luck

Again, great job, Bodio

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Werker

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 3640

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:45 PM ET #61

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

-7.5? Yes, that's probably a good 'projected' line but I'm hoping it comes out -5.5 Pacers....

Lines are already out for a few of tomorrow's games, even though teams have yet to play tonight. Odd.

I'm already thinking OKC +7.5. They've got more than a little something to prove in San An after getting crushed last time. I know you didn't factor in the look-ahead in your pick tonight, but it was the only reason I made this one a no play.

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:48 PM ET #62

Quote Originally Posted by chasman:

You worked over-time today, Bodio. Great job, 3 outstanding write-ups: I liked the Wizards until you convinced me the errors of my thinking. As I was reading I'm thinking 'well maybe I'll just sit this game out'. By the time I finished you had convinced me: The Pacers are the pick.

I also like Denver for many of the same reasons you stated and btw I think Denver got the best of the trade and in 2 years it will be proven by Denver having the better team.

The Thunder. I like your arguements. I just can't pull the trigger on this one. I'll sit it out and wish you luck

Again, great job, Bodio

Thanks buddy. GL to you too tonight.

I agree that Denver did the best they could with Carmelo's 'passive-aggressive' demands for the trade. They got a bunch of young talented players, 2014 1st rounder (I like the fact that they got it later in the future...who knows if Amare will hold up long term, and if Knicks will have the 'right' supporting cast around Anthony), and even some cash.

Denver will be fine. They have a good mix. Now they just need a super-star to join them.

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:51 PM ET #63

Quote Originally Posted by Werker:

Lines are already out for a few of tomorrow's games, even though teams have yet to play tonight. Odd.

I'm already thinking OKC +7.5. They've got more than a little something to prove in San An after getting crushed last time. I know you didn't factor in the look-ahead in your pick tonight, but it was the only reason I made this one a no play.

Oh yes...Just saw the lines. Was hoping the Pacers # would be lower. Need a Pistons blow-out tonight and Pacers to win by 2 (or 3 for those that got 'em at -2) :)

Yeah, I didn't factor a 'look-ahead' for Okie City because of the long break. Teams are anxious to get back on the court and play the game, instead of 'looking-ahead' right now.

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Dam_IT_Man

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 300

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:55 PM ET #64

On all three with you brother

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 6:58 PM ET #65

Quote Originally Posted by Dam_IT_Man:

On all three with you brother

Dam It Man!

Good luck! :)

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1gonwild

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 84

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 7:01 PM ET #66

I like the first 2 Indy is one of my 2 ploays . The other is Memphis . Denver will lack cohesivness and scorers tonight . The Griz will play hard to not lose to a depleted team n they are talented .

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 7:03 PM ET #67

Quote Originally Posted by 1gonwild:

I like the first 2 Indy is one of my 2 ploays . The other is Memphis . Denver will lack cohesivness and scorers tonight . The Griz will play hard to not lose to a depleted team n they are talented .

Cohesiveness and scorers? Really?

It's only 1.5 'key' players (Billups is old and Lawson is a solid replacement for him) that Denver is missing tonight. I think the rest of the guys are plenty cohesive and JR Smith, Afflalo, Nene (one of the highest FG% in the league) will take care of the scoring... GL tonight. Go NUGGZ!

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TDUB888

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 339

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 7:15 PM ET #68

Very happy that NBA is back from the break. Really like OKC tonight as well

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NEPatsFan

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 1370

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 7:43 PM ET #69

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 8:11 PM ET #70

Hibbert's a big factor so far. Hopefully Pacers can continue playing well in the 2nd half...

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sirrobinhood

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 4241

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 8:25 PM ET #71

why are the following teams in the NBA: craptors (the worst), followed by the kings, wolves and cavs. the cavs may get some some slack for now due to lbj fleeing the scene. these teams, however really suck, i mean they are pure sh!@#it, and can't draw flies. be done with them already. they get blown out every nite, and if teams really come to play i dont think they could beat anyone but each other.

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Werker

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 3640

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 8:27 PM ET #72

Quote Originally Posted by sirrobinhood:

why are the following teams in the NBA: craptors (the worst), followed by the kings, wolves and cavs. the cavs may get some some slack for now due to lbj fleeing the scene. these teams, however really suck, i mean they are pure sh!@#it, and can't draw flies. be done with them already. they get blown out every nite, and if teams really come to play i dont think they could beat anyone but each other.

Why are you giving the Wizards a pass?

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PABLOESCOBAR

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 168

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 8:28 PM ET #73

Thanks Bodio, on Indiana and OKC as well. Took Miami also. If I am having a good night I may play Lakers tonight vs. ATL.

GL and great work. Love your write ups but I don't post much. Much appreciated!

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sirrobinhood

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 4241

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 8:39 PM ET #74

stand corrected the wiz make this grioup as well, though i dont think are as bad as the others and may get better due to john wall. but, yes they are terrible.

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 8:56 PM ET #75

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

#1: Indiana Pacers -1.5

OK, well this one is pretty much over. Come on Okie City, time to start pulling away :)

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