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How many of us make money in the NBA?

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Posted: #1
Realize I'm not trying to spawn negativity with this thread.  

I'm just trying to figure out the truth.  

There are posters in here that are in/out within 2 weeks, people who make up plays and units, people who don't know to use a computer.

Surely these people just fade away with memory.  But what about some of you long time posters?  

How's the NBA treating you overall compared to other sports?

For those who seriously do make money: tips/advice is always welcomed and appreciated in this thread.

Myself, I've been gambling for about 5 years (not consistently).  Mostly focusing on the sports of basketball and football.  My first few years were all losing years.  If I had to guess I'd say I lost about three thousand during that time span.  Not that bad I guess with some of the other stories I've heard.  

Two years ago I had my first winning season and took notes of everything I did that made it work.  Last year I was a little above even but only got to cash out three times over the course of the year.  I was kinda hoping to improve, but I didn't.  So I spent a lot of this summer learning more about basketball and attending the summer games and what not.  

Basically trying to get a feel of the majority of players, coaches, refs out there so I can kinda know what to expect on a nightly basis.  I put in a lot of work this summer and fall to learn it, but I realize as soon as I take a few days off and slip up on the information it puts me far behind like missing a geometry class.

I really want to know some of the things those do around here at keeping the stress down and to keep your will power strong.

Kap said today in his thread, and it is a very good quote "It is a marathon, not a sprint".  Very true and something we must remind ourselves each day when trying to make money betting.  

Since posting here before the preseason even began, it was easy to tell the people sticking to this forum were serious at what they did, and were vary good at passing along reliable information.  Now, from what I can see, the opposite has occurred.  People seem to be less serious about their plays and information and don't seem to have a clue about betting the NBA or else you wouldn't see all these thread popping up "What's with the Orlando line?" "Is Kevin Durant playing?"

Real gamblers already know what's up and don't need to ask these questions.  


 
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Posted: #2

We are all wrapped around David Stern's finger.....

 
Captain
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Posted: #3
go to NCAAB forum and follow nropp11 religiously, 
That's all you have to do to make $$ in basketball


 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:

go to NCAAB forum and follow nropp11 religiously, 
That's all you have to do to make $$ in basketball



The question wasn't I need somebody to follow to make money.  I definitely don't want to do that.  But I'm glad nropp11 is hot and making money, maybe you should invite him to this thread so he can give his input 
 
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Posted: #5
I would only advise betting in the NBA if you have a basketball background and really understand the game and match ups, along with trends, and know how certain teams play against each other.
 
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Posted: #6
1) Money Management

2) Don't bet on late night chaser games involving golden state or the clippers.

3) Limit yourself to 3-4 plays a night on big card nights.

4) Don't bet against the Celtics!

5) Don't be influenced by other people on covers if you have done your own capping on a game.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by WaltThizzney:

I would only advise betting in the NBA if you have a basketball background and really understand the game and match ups, along with trends, and know how certain teams play against each other.

I think a basketball background is a must, it was the only sport I've ever played and if it weren't for that interest in the game at a young age, I'd imagine it would be hard just to jump into and pick up.  Probably the same reason I'm no good at the NHL because I have no real hockey knowledge or background.
 
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Posted: #8
To tell you the truth its probably the only sport i make money in, if i didnt play football i would probably be up over 400 units by now..I find it easier to cap the NBA than any other sport..
 
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Posted: #9
 
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Posted: #10

This is only my second year gambling on anything, let alone the NBA. I did surprisingly well last year, but haven't been so lucky this time around.

I have watched the NBA for as long as I can remember, but gambling on the games has really given me a new insight into the way in which they are played. I question the integrity of the entire association: David Stern, refs, coaches, and especially players. Even when I have nothing at stake I'll see a lot of questionable decisions made on the court which really make me wonder.

I honestly think gambling successfully on the NBA is predicated primarily on luck. Granted, you might be able to obtain a slight advantage from doing research, but it really all comes down to whether or not the players actually feel like putting forth any effort on the court. Some of the upsets that have happened this season make no sense at all - the disparity in talent between some teams is so high that the only way in which these upsets could happen is if the outcome is preordained or the players just don't care - I suspect the latter.

 

 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:

1) Money Management

2) Don't bet on late night chaser games involving golden state or the clippers.

3) Limit yourself to 3-4 plays a night on big card nights.

4) Don't bet against the Celtics!

5) Don't be influenced by other people on covers if you have done your own capping on a game.

Actually NBA you have just brought up a great point.  I wonder how many people find they start losing more after they post on Covers.  Just being exposed to all these opinions and perspectives, it's hard not to take some of it into account.  I've seen people change their minds based on what others think.  While it is a good thing to share knowledge, it is not good to blindly bet into knowledge without at least finding the real TRUTH in it.  

Everything in this forum is opinionated in some way or another.  I just find it important never to neglect the other side of the argument because thinking one-sided is never a winning strategy.  
 
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Posted: #12

I made good money in baseball this year but NBA is a tough fucking sport to win at.....my problem is money management i want the big hits and dont think long term....if i had discipline i would be way better off in the long run. It's fucked up i go 8-2 one day and then 2-4 the next....nba is definitely one of the hardest sports to win at imo

 
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Posted: #13
NBA is my Easiest money....
 
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Posted: #14
I use to say NFL will lose me money, but college hoops gets it back. This season w/ a different view on NFL, It is truly my passion, I have won a good amount and lost it back betting CFB...If you really think you know a sport, like I use to bet NCAAB late games ie...wcc or mwc then you should be able to do some damage...I think part of the key is finding those 2-1 dogs who you know will bark and taking them SU...College is probably easier w/ the parity, but NBA may be doable if you know team's strengths and weaknesses...Tonight My Pacers weakness was the coach, which I didn't count on. 1 key in hoops that I think can turn any loss into a win is figuring out what the TO/Ass margin is...Truly probably the most important figure in any basketball game...Just My .02

But that shouldn't be far fetched since if you can predict that in the NFL then you should be fine....
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by tinoker55:

To tell you the truth its probably the only sport i make money in, if i didnt play football i would probably be up over 400 units by now..I find it easier to cap the NBA than any other sport..


I agree, but how long each day do you spend capping?  Probably a lot... how do you keep the stress down and stay clear headed?
 
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Posted: #16
I say go with your gut.....whenever I change my initial lean on a game it ends up losing it seems like....go with your gut and trust your knowledge
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by parlazy:

This is only my second year gambling on anything, let alone the NBA. I did surprisingly well last year, but haven't been so lucky this time around.

I have watched the NBA for as long as I can remember, but gambling on the games has really given me a new insight into the way in which they are played. I question the integrity of the entire association: David Stern, refs, coaches, and especially players. Even when I have nothing at stake I'll see a lot of questionable decisions made on the court which really make me wonder.

I honestly think gambling successfully on the NBA is predicated primarily on luck. Granted, you might be able to obtain a slight advantage from doing research, but it really all comes down to whether or not the players actually feel like putting forth any effort on the court. Some of the upsets that have happened this season make no sense at all - the disparity in talent between some teams is so high that the only way in which these upsets could happen is if the outcome is preordained or the players just don't care - I suspect the latter.

 

Agreed, the biggest factor is whether the team u backed on the night turns up or not.....no one knows the answer to that.....

On any given night, it could happen to any team.....

 
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Posted: #18
It is a Marathon, not a sprint Ive been gambling for over 20 years now and Ive taken my lumps, believe me 3000 is nothing i once lost $30,000 in 1 year.., although i havent had a losing year in the last 11 yrs. Ive been lucky enough to be ahead of the game early on in the seasons to not lose, Money management is the key, just because your up 200 units doesnt mean you increase your betting unit, as a matter of fact there have ben times when i was up and decreased it. There is always that so called moose night that kills you.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Mikado:



I agree, but how long each day do you spend capping?  Probably a lot... how do you keep the stress down and stay clear headed?
I actually spend about 2 hrs a day capping total, although I do qtrs bets it doesnt take as much time for me..
 
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Posted: #20
"I honestly think gambling successfully on the NBA is predicated primarily on luck. Granted, you might be able to obtain a slight advantage from doing research, but it really all comes down to whether or not the players actually feel like putting forth any effort on the court."

Its not luck when figuring out when it is most likely that NBA players will be putting in effort on a specific day... scheduling is key as are motivational factors. NBA is a sport that, IMO, you need to have a background in to bet successfully. Why? You need to have either played or studied the game intensely to understand and analyze the data. Which trends are important? Which stats "matter" and which can be misleading and deceiving? If you ask me there is no substitute for actually watching the games too, and that's where (if you have a basketball background) you can really gain insight into match-up advantages. The more that you know about each player's game in the NBA, the better equipped you are to figure out how his skill set will mesh with the rest of his team and his opponent's potential weak points (or consequently, strong points).

One large thing I've taken from baseball betting is the long-haul approach and appreciate of variance. It's the same thing with the NBA. You just have to be comfortable that when you are putting your money down, you are doing so in situations where, for some reason, you have the edge.

Betting the NBA, to me, is about not just the actual basketball knowledge but also about the general understanding of team dynamics and psychology. When will a team be up? What is the effect of losing a key player? What about the bench, are there "team" guys there or gunners?

It's an extremely complex capping challenge for me, which is why I think I like it so much.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by parlazy:

This is only my second year gambling on anything, let alone the NBA. I did surprisingly well last year, but haven't been so lucky this time around.

I have watched the NBA for as long as I can remember, but gambling on the games has really given me a new insight into the way in which they are played. I question the integrity of the entire association: David Stern, refs, coaches, and especially players. Even when I have nothing at stake I'll see a lot of questionable decisions made on the court which really make me wonder.

I honestly think gambling successfully on the NBA is predicated primarily on luck. Granted, you might be able to obtain a slight advantage from doing research, but it really all comes down to whether or not the players actually feel like putting forth any effort on the court. Some of the upsets that have happened this season make no sense at all - the disparity in talent between some teams is so high that the only way in which these upsets could happen is if the outcome is preordained or the players just don't care - I suspect the latter.

 


Any of us that has only had the experience of betting the NBA for two weeks knows there is serious integrity problems with the association.  

I wouldn't say the primary factor in betting the NBA is luck, surely you could look at it that way, but it is never really luck even though that's what we'd sure like to call it.  You brought up the refs, so obviously me being me, I have to respond to that.  The luck part of it is finding out at 9 AM who the refs are each morning.  It always seems the weirdest lined games get the weirdest shadiest effin refs available for that day.  The key is finding yourself on the right side of the refs by knowing their tendencies, who they like/don't like, and the type of calls they get wrong most often/overcall/under call etc.  

I would be lying to you if I told you the refs don't have an seriously huge impact on games in their own specific ways, as long as you know what to look out for you can more than often be on the right side of it.  
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by tinoker55:

It is a Marathon, not a sprint Ive been gambling for over 20 years now and Ive taken my lumps, believe me 3000 is nothing i once lost $30,000 in 1 year.., although i havent had a losing year in the last 11 yrs. Ive been lucky enough to be ahead of the game early on in the seasons to not lose, Money management is the key, just because your up 200 units doesnt mean you increase your betting unit, as a matter of fact there have ben times when i was up and decreased it. There is always that so called moose night that kills you.

Always, great post 
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Mikado:



I agree, but how long each day do you spend capping?  Probably a lot... how do you keep the stress down and stay clear headed?
As far as the stress goes, there is none, I dont bet over my head so if I do lose i dont care its that simple, my Unit size is $ 100 right now, but im up over 260 units, i started the year out at $50 per unit, but over the last 10 yrs ive built enough of a bankroll not to worry about it, Maybe im just lucky, IDK, But i do know the NBA pretty well.
 
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Posted: #24
can millsap make a motherfucking layup or what jesus
 
 
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Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

"I honestly think gambling successfully on the NBA is predicated primarily on luck. Granted, you might be able to obtain a slight advantage from doing research, but it really all comes down to whether or not the players actually feel like putting forth any effort on the court."

Its not luck when figuring out when it is most likely that NBA players will be putting in effort on a specific day... scheduling is key as are motivational factors. NBA is a sport that, IMO, you need to have a background in to bet successfully. Why? You need to have either played or studied the game intensely to understand and analyze the data. Which trends are important? Which stats "matter" and which can be misleading and deceiving? If you ask me there is no substitute for actually watching the games too, and that's where (if you have a basketball background) you can really gain insight into match-up advantages. The more that you know about each player's game in the NBA, the better equipped you are to figure out how his skill set will mesh with the rest of his team and his opponent's potential weak points (or consequently, strong points).

One large thing I've taken from baseball betting is the long-haul approach and appreciate of variance. It's the same thing with the NBA. You just have to be comfortable that when you are putting your money down, you are doing so in situations where, for some reason, you have the edge.

Betting the NBA, to me, is about not just the actual basketball knowledge but also about the general understanding of team dynamics and psychology. When will a team be up? What is the effect of losing a key player? What about the bench, are there "team" guys there or gunners?

It's an extremely complex capping challenge for me, which is why I think I like it so much.

  Tell people who had under in the Cleveland Boston game 2 days where Glenn Davis hit a 3 pointer with 1 second left to push the total over.........

tell people who had Mia where Paul Milsap hit 3 3 pointers in the final minute...

i could sit here and list 1000 examples......

 

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