I spent TWO HOURS typing this WRITE-UP with my thumbs FOR YOU. Oh yes!! It's KNICKS@HEAT!!!

Question

All is quiet in Knicks land. Finally, no chirping or squawking or complaining or 'must win' yapping, albeit there is a smattering of headband tugging by JR Smith.

The quietness, the dead silence, reminds me of the fields of Nambia.

A wildebeest slowly traipses around a patch of grass in the 95 degree sun. The clay ground splits beneath each hoof. Thirst is overtaking it. It knows the almost dry riverbed offers everything it needs to follow the herd to its next destination. But temptation will not overcome it. The river is full of crocs, ever patient for the one fatal drink that will send the beast to the great beyond.

Hours pass. The cool night moon cannot come soon enough. The hours now seem like days, weeks even. Death lurks for the beast that traverses the open plain without a drink.

There is only one choice. Slowly the wildbeest saunters achingly to the riverbed. If only its tongue could touch liquid, it would be enough. Crack, crack crack. The ground shifts and a reflection states back. Make this quick and live. A tongue touches the water. Life giving water quenches the beast's thirst. But the beast cannot stop. The body's urges now overtakes the mind's reluctance and the beast continues to take its fill. Just a bit more and it won't need water for days. Almost finished. Life preserved...and then...

WHAM!

The freshwater croc, waiting 16 hours by the riverbed side claims its prey. Screams of pain give way to silence. The only sound now is the wind whistling through the same grass patch abandoned for that drink of certain death.

Tonight we play the saltwater croc. The books? Poor wildebeests waiting to be taken alive.

I don't even have a line as I start to write this.

I know it will be high. High enough for a rock solid play. And when you abandon the good teams for the bad and ugly ones, you sure as he ll better have a line that is sky high. We'll get one here.

The play is the Knicks plus the points over the Heat.

Here are my reasons.

scalabrine · Answer

All is quiet in Knicks land. Finally, no chirping or squawking or complaining or 'must win' yapping, albeit there is a smattering of headband tugging by JR Smith.

The quietness, the dead silence, reminds me of the fields of Nambia.

A wildebeest slowly traipses around a patch of grass in the 95 degree sun. The clay ground splits beneath each hoof. Thirst is overtaking it. It knows the almost dry riverbed offers everything it needs to follow the herd to its next destination. But temptation will not overcome it. The river is full of crocs, ever patient for the one fatal drink that will send the beast to the great beyond.

Hours pass. The cool night moon cannot come soon enough. The hours now seem like days, weeks even. Death lurks for the beast that traverses the open plain without a drink.

There is only one choice. Slowly the wildbeest saunters achingly to the riverbed. If only its tongue could touch liquid, it would be enough. Crack, crack crack. The ground shifts and a reflection states back. Make this quick and live. A tongue touches the water. Life giving water quenches the beast's thirst. But the beast cannot stop. The body's urges now overtakes the mind's reluctance and the beast continues to take its fill. Just a bit more and it won't need water for days. Almost finished. Life preserved...and then...

WHAM!

The freshwater croc, waiting 16 hours by the riverbed side claims its prey. Screams of pain give way to silence. The only sound now is the wind whistling through the same grass patch abandoned for that drink of certain death.

Tonight we play the saltwater croc. The books? Poor wildebeests waiting to be taken alive.

I don't even have a line as I start to write this.

I know it will be high. High enough for a rock solid play. And when you abandon the good teams for the bad and ugly ones, you sure as he ll better have a line that is sky high. We'll get one here.

The play is the Knicks plus the points over the Heat.

Here are my reasons.

csulb699 · Answer

Felton pulls out a gun and shoots Lebron?

scalabrine · Answer

1) DisciplineThe narrative above is about discipline. The wildebeest needs to be disciplined to avoid the croc infested water. It cannot. In many ways, it has no choice. Die now or die later.The books create lines for the masses. They must deal with sharps and squares. If they can put out a line to take more money from squares than sharps, they will do so. It doesn&#x27;t matter what the line is. The goal is to make a profit on a game or they wouldn&#x27;t put out a line.We have them right where we want them because of that. The Knicks are playing Miami in Miami. It is the best vs. the worst. This line has to be 10 or more. 10 is a beautiful number and one where our eyes should bulge.Why should they bulge?The conditions are ripe for a bet. Those conditions were not ripe for a bet these past several games despite 2 of 4 covers for NY. We need IDEAL spots, not shaky ones for this posting.Why weren&#x27;t the past 4 games ideal?First, the Pelicans on a B2B with the Knicks &#x2B;3.5. Melo is the most overplayed star in the league minutes-wise. Despite his near heroism in recent games carrying the team, you don&#x27;t want to bet on just Melo for a Knicks win. You want to bet on the Knicks as a team.Knicks backers had to watch in horror as Luke Babbit, Austin Rivers and a shoddy Pelicans bench outplayed the starters in a crucial fourth quarter stretch to take a one point lead. The Knicks took back control but not before giving NY backers indigestion. Result? Knicks cover and win SU but it was NOT ideal.Next up on a third in 4, they played at the Magic laying 4 points (opened at 2). Squares hit this Knicks &#x27;must win&#x27; up hard, driving the line into no man&#x27;s land. The Magic, if you&#x27;ve been paying attention have recently beat the Pacers and Thunder on their home floor. It doesn&#x27;t get better than that. Think the squares cared when they backed the Knicks? No. They even paid a premium and laid a chunk of points.Knicks let a 13 point lead go to zero and lost in double OT as Tyson Chandler got called for an epic goal tending call in the first OT with 1 minute left to possibly take a 115-113 lead when he dunked the ball off his own head. Result? A Knicks SU loss and ATS loss in double OT.Surely the next night, a fourth in five (this is ideal? Uh no.) the Knicks would beat the lousy Hawks getting 2.5 right. Hawks were on an 8 game losing streak. Well the Knicks took a 17 point lead in the third and then Melo started jawing with Demarre Caroll. 27 points later and a Mike Scott career high and Carroll career high, and the Knicks lose SU and ATS. Ideal! No, and Melo should have kept his mouth shut.

scalabrine · Answer

Then a day of rest and yet another third in four (after they just had a third in four) and the weary Knicks play the Mavs who have all kinds of fire power. Squares drove a 4 point line down to +2.5 in yet another 'must win'. This was a brutal one for Mavs backers as they held an 8 point lead with 1:30 left in the 4th. Three turnovers later and the Knicks tie it up. Worse a Dirk brick that should have sent the game to OT found its way through the hoop and Knicks backers rejoice. Despite the ATS cover but SU loss, this was far, far from ideal to take the Knicks.

Now why is this Miami game ideal?

1) The Knicks are rested. They got a much needed 3 games off after a scheduling crunch. Melo leads the league in minutes and despite his performances in recent games (tremendous), a rested Melo and a rested team can translate into wins (instead of three straight losses vs Orl, Atl, and Dal).

2) They will be getting 10+, enough for us to back them. Back a bad team, get the insurance you need. The past three games were low, largely meaningless lines (minus the backdoor vs. Dallas). Squares won't be able to bet this one down.

3) They are up against their main EC rival and almost always play hard against them and are also more familiar with them than most any other team.

4) The game will be on TNT at 8pm. The last time I posted an 8pm TNT game was Knicks at Nets and they crushed them by 30 as 1.5 pt dogs. As bad as they are, they show something more in prime time on national TV (as opposed to noon start times).

What does all this mean? This is the right spot to back a bad team. The conditions are there.

2) Raymond's got a gun

Is this a big deal? It is. Why? The Knicks just bought out Beno Udrih. He was their main backup PG. If Raymond couldn't play, it would be manned by Prigioni (not good) and possibly Melo would bring up the ball (he already does way too much).

Instead of picking up an emergency backup point guard, the Knicks went out and got Earl Clark, a forward. Go figure.

The point is, as bad as he is, and he is in the bottom three worst PG's in the league, he's still there and he will be starting. That is a good thing . He is familiar with the offense.

Here is another good thing. Woodson is behind him based on media reports. Really he has no choice. If I want to gauge the psychology of the team because of the felony charges, I would say there is no effect really. This team only wants one thing: to win another game, any game.

And for Felton, let's call it like it is. He is an out of shape, unmotivated point guard. He is basically out of the league and will likely get some kind of jail time as NYC has the toughest gun laws in the country. In his mind, this is it. If anything lights a fire under his a**, this will. I feel he shows up on a national stage on TNT with the head coaches support battling for his last hurrah in the league. And if you can get 12-14 pts with 8 assists out of him, that's a he ll of a lot more than he gives you other nights and adds to the probability they get inside this number.

So the Felton issue, as crazy as it sounds, is a net positive for the team IMO. He's going to jail. This basketball court will now be heaven.

scalabrine · Answer

3)Situational game and situational betI explained above why this is a situational game for the Knicks. Now why is it a situational bet for us. We look at the slate ahead and what do we see? Golden State in a back to back tomorrow night at home (with the warriors coming off an embarrassing loss to the bulls and then back out on the road @ Chicago on March 2nd, another tough one and they won&#x27;t be getting points like this against the Bulls).What does that mean? Like the Grizzlies game, this is the game to bet the Knicks.4) How have the Knicks really looked ATS in the past several?As a rule, most of the time we want a team paying us ATS if we back a team, or at least starting to pay us.ATS they have:W @ MemphisW @ PelicansL@ OrlandoL@ AtlantaW vs DallasThree of five ATS is good for a team this bad. And Orlando and Atlanta games could have been easy covers with 13 and 17 point leads blown.As discussed, the Dallas game should have been a loss so we could argue that they had all the opportunities to be 4-1 ATS in their last five. That qualifies as a team that is paying us and we can back them with points.Not only that, but the Knicks despite blown leads are playing better on the road of late for ATS purposes.5) Lebron&#x27;s face maskThis is a very small footnote for this bet but I wanted to say it and it does not make us bet for or agaisnt one team.This is the greatest player of our generation. Anything to disrupt his flow is welcome.I was watching NBA TV and they said Lebron would come back

scalabrine · Answer

tonight with the mask. Steve Smith, a panelist on the show said he has played with in when he broke his nose. He said, no matter how well constructed, it ultimately shifts on your face, blocks your airflow through your nose and you could have trouble breathing when gassed at crucial moments. When the mask shifts, the airflow goes up through it and it fogs up and ultimately condenses compounding the slipperiness and shifting.

If this result in Lebron scoring one or two or three fewer baskets, when you are getting 10+, you welcome it. It's a small footnote but a footnote nonetheless.

6) So what is the major downside for betting the Knicks against not only the Heat, but anyone?

The blown leads?

It all comes down to three pointers. The Knicks can't guard them. Why?

Iman Shumpert

Squares have no idea what I'm talking about here and say things like 'the Knicks are due.'

The Knicks aren't 'due' for anything. They can go 5-20 the rest of the way and I wouldn't be shocked. Their best on the ball defender in Shumpert is out.

Do you want to know how valuable he is?

Two of the best teams in the league, the Clippers and the Thunder, wanted to give the Knicks assets AND draft picks for Shumpert AFTER he was injured. That should tell you how valuable he is.

They cannot guard the three without him. They are already bad at that and now they are worse. Why?

They double team ALL the time because they are so bad in one on one situations. Then they are too slow to help out when the ball leaves the man who was double teamed. Prigioni does not know how to rotate properly and when he does, he's too small to have any real effect. Felton and Chandler are too slow. Melo is too gassed. JR is too unmotivated and Hardaway is too raw.

This leads to absolute no names getting career highs on the Knicks, many times through multiple threes.

scalabrine · Answer

Would you like a list of those who have established career Highs on the Knicks this year?

Mike Scott

Jimmer Fredette

Demarre Carroll

Chris Singleton

Season highs?

Mike Miller

Vince Carter

A whole bunch of others

The bulk of these came with Iman off the floor and through the three.

Right now the Heat have a three point shooting percentage of 11th in the league. That will go up tomorrow but that is not as high as Dallas or Atlanta who are way up there.

Allen will hit them. Chalmers will hit them and so will Battier and even Bosh and LBJ. The good thing is Battier has been nonexistent this month even with significant minutes so his confidence is likely low.

So why bet the Knicks given this very big con? Because they've demonstrated in their last three losses, especially in the Dallas loss that they are willing to play better but not great D. That translated into huge leads in Orl and Atl and a cover vs. Dallas. Tyson Chandler was full court pressing on some plays! I'm serious! It's called manic desperation in a season slipping away fast. The Heat tonight. Warriors tomorrow. You're the 11th seed in terrible east? Step the fu ck up. Tonight! And even if you don't? 10.5 as insurance is right there.

So it is the willingness to get on the ball and they have no problem scoring lately with an average of 108 in their last 3, albeit one was in double OT.

I say we take the boatload of points and back a team that has covered 4 of their last 6 vs. Miami and get inside that number. It's dangerous. Miami comes in on a five game win streak, won 8 of 9 and covered 4 of 5. BUT and I know many here know this, what is Miami's ATS giving 9.5 or more? A woeful 5-10 ATS!.. We get 10.5 here.

You think the the Knicks can't cover against good teams? Tell it to the Spurs, Rockets and Mavs who they won 2 of three from and covered all three as big time road dogs this year in their Texas trip.

You side with the books as the wildebeest or you lay low and strike hard as the croc.

See ya at the water's edge...

WHAM!

THE PICK:

KNICKS +10.5 @ MIAMI

mikeru3 · Answer

Very nice write-up. Much appreciated. Just for that I hope you win Knicks &#x2B; 10 brother.

Ay-Yo · Answer

This game will be close to the spread. I think the Heat will win by 9 or 10 points. That hook may make or break some people.

darkmandave · Answer

Always excellent write ups

scalabrine · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Ay-Yo]  This game will be close to the spread. I think the Heat will win by 9 or 10 points. That hook may make or break some people.  [/Quote]If you think they will win by 9 or 10, 10.5 is there for the taking. The hook is a nice little cherry on top at moment. Let&#x27;s see if it stays at 10.5.

scalabrine · Answer

This one was the like energizer bunny

scalabrine · Answer

Thanks!

Coverdeeznutz · Answer

you dont need 5 pages to write about how much you're a knick homer

lebron uncomfortable with mask
carmelo shows up vs lebron

knicks cover the 10 points its really just that simple

but with how you and LC the so called 2 best cappers on here lol.....are running
who knows

KobezKing · Answer

problem is if knicks get down i could easily see that huge 24-4 run by heat to win by 20&#x2B;. It basically comes down to heat and not knicks imo. If heat feel like showing up and clamping down on D this game gets ugly. if heat go thru motions and flip switch late then knicks can cover. it always scary going against heat for this reason

scalabrine · Answer

Now when you find spots to bet a team you&#x27;re a homer. Even though it&#x27;s one of the worst teams in the league and you&#x27;re backing them against the defending champs.Running? I&#x27;m 9-3 this year kid. Go read a the post and learn something. If not, keep your mouth shut. I&#x27;ve shut it nine times this year. You&#x27;ve been in every one of my threads.

scalabrine · Answer

Wrong. The Heat are 5-10ATS in spread &gt; 9.5. That ALONE should make you shiver if you want to back them. Then I wrote an encyclopedia britannica collection supporting my pick. There&#x27;s a lot more here than just "if the heat want it they can have it...". A he ll of a lot more...

donix · Answer

ei scal if line goes down to 9.5? do you still on NYK?

Jailbait7127 · Answer

Scal! I&#39;m from Miami so I must say. Lebron is out for the killing. February/March is when the heat win the most. Are you worried about how well the heat are playing and how not well the knicks are playing? Also, what would you rate this play out of 5 stars. 5 being the best? Just so we get a bet amount approximately

Coverdeeznutz · Answer

im never in your threads maybe 1 or 2 i just read them and laughand yes you&#x27;re a knick homer you wait about once a week to post a lengthy knick write up on time as usual getting 10 here

Jailbait7127 · Answer

@coverdeeznuts haha you are so sad bro. Hating cause what&#39;s your record? Piece of shiiiit go jump in traffic and die

I spent TWO HOURS typing this WRITE-UP with my thumbs FOR YOU. Oh yes!! It's KNICKS@HEAT!!!

Hot Forum Topics