1) Discipline
The narrative above is about discipline. The wildebeest needs to be disciplined to avoid the croc infested water. It cannot. In many ways, it has no choice. Die now or die later.
The books create lines for the masses. They must deal with sharps and squares. If they can put out a line to take more money from squares than sharps, they will do so. It doesn't matter what the line is. The goal is to make a profit on a game or they wouldn't put out a line.
We have them right where we want them because of that.
The Knicks are playing Miami in Miami. It is the best vs. the worst. This line has to be 10 or more. 10 is a beautiful number and one where our eyes should bulge.
Why should they bulge?
The conditions are ripe for a bet.
Those conditions were not ripe for a bet these past several games despite 2 of 4 covers for NY. We need IDEAL spots, not shaky ones for this posting.
Why weren't the past 4 games ideal?
First, the Pelicans on a B2B with the Knicks +3.5. Melo is the most overplayed star in the league minutes-wise. Despite his near heroism in recent games carrying the team, you don't want to bet on just Melo for a Knicks win. You want to bet on the Knicks as a team.
Knicks backers had to watch in horror as Luke Babbit, Austin Rivers and a shoddy Pelicans bench outplayed the starters in a crucial fourth quarter stretch to take a one point lead. The Knicks took back control but not before giving NY backers indigestion. Result? Knicks cover and win SU but it was NOT ideal.
Next up on a third in 4, they played at the Magic laying 4 points (opened at 2). Squares hit this Knicks 'must win' up hard, driving the line into no man's land. The Magic, if you've been paying attention have recently beat the Pacers and Thunder on their home floor. It doesn't get better than that. Think the squares cared when they backed the Knicks? No. They even paid a premium and laid a chunk of points.
Knicks let a 13 point lead go to zero and lost in double OT as Tyson Chandler got called for an epic goal tending call in the first OT with 1 minute left to possibly take a 115-113 lead when he dunked the ball off his own head. Result? A Knicks SU loss and ATS loss in double OT.
Surely the next night, a fourth in five (this is ideal? Uh no.) the Knicks would beat the lousy Hawks getting 2.5 right. Hawks were on an 8 game losing streak. Well the Knicks took a 17 point lead in the third and then Melo started jawing with Demarre Caroll. 27 points later and a Mike Scott career high and Carroll career high, and the Knicks lose SU and ATS. Ideal! No, and Melo should have kept his mouth shut.