Jan 6, 2010 NBA: WAS-NOH-SAS

Wonderful 4-2 last night, almost a 5-1 were it not for garbage fouls by HOU.  Enough blabbing.  On to the next.....


WAS +13.5
I have a simple tongue-in-cheek theory why the Wizards play very well vs the Cavs: Shaq's divorce was reportedly caused by his cheating on wife Shaunie O'Neal with Shaunie's friend, Laura Govan (Gilbert Arenas' fiance).  So Shaq screws Laura, and in turn Arenas screws Shaq when they're on the court.  Pictures and emails between Shaq and Laura here.
Seriously now, the stats: WAS is 6-8-2 ATS as a road dog, 6-9-2 ATS on the road overall.  It's a terrible 2-6 ATS on b2b games, but this seems to be one matchup the Wiz do well in.  WAS has covered 7 out of 10 meetings between them.  CLEV is 5-3 ATS after a SU loss, but is 6-10 ATS as a home fave (5-11 ATS at home overall), and a poor 3-9 ATS as a double-digit home fave (covering vs CHI, MIN & WAS-by half a point).  CLEV is like the Mavs in that they have a poor home record vs sub-.500 teams, notching a 1-6 ATS mark in that category, a sure sign that they're taking it easy when the opponent is perceived to be no competition.  I don't think revenge from their 17-pt drubbing is a strong angle here. Last year, WAS defeated CLEV in their 2nd and 3rd meetings, so the books raised the line to +16, expecting a CLEV superblowout. What happened? WAS covered again.  Also, if you believe in 1_Hits system, you bet against the home fave which lost its previous game as a home fave also.  CLEV fits that bill.
Three red flags about picking WAS:
1) WAS is 0-3 ATS this season on its 2nd road game after winning a previous road game.
2) CLEV has not lost 4 straight games ATS-wise all season (it has already lost 3 straight). 
3) CLEV's sole revenge game this season is vs HOU.  After a 10-pt loss vs the Rockets, CLEV demolished HOU 108-83 last Dec 27. That achievement is nothing to be proud of, though: HOU was on its 4th set of a b2b stretch--its 8th game in 12 days.

NOH  +4.5
Stats first: OKC is a good 7-3 ATS as a home fave, 9-7 ATS at home overall.  NOH is a poor 5-8 ATS as a road fave, and an unimpressive 6-10 ATS on the road overall.  Problem here is, if Kevin Durant is not 100%, playing through a right ankle injury last game.  KD35 takes up about a third of their scoring load.  Without him, OKC simply doesn't have another go-to guy as a reliable backup.  If you prefer the 1_Hit_Take_All system, then you bet against the home fave coming off a road win as a dog--in this case, it's OKC. (Caution: 1_Hit_Take_All also states that if 2 games fall under the systems on a single day, one or both games will have the opposite result)

SA -9
So DET gets one ATS win on the road vs DAL, and we all think the old men in San Antonio should be a cinch to cover against, don't we? Don't let the close games in the past fool you.  DET is 6-9-1 ATS as a road dog, and 2-5-1 in that category in the last  5 weeks.  SAS, on the other hand, although not much better at 4-5-1 ATS as a home fave for the same period, is a decent 10-7-1 ATS overall as a home fave.  Observe how last year's lines were SA +1 and DET 5.5 (SA & DET covered one apiece), and now it's SA -9.

leaning:

HOU +5
Purely instinct pick.  These 2 teams fought their games last night down to the wire. PHX got lucky, HOU didn't.  HOU is supposed to play harder this time, but it's a lousy 2-5 ATS as a road dog this December, 6-7 ATS overall in that department.  Not quite convincing yet. 

BOL folks

Thanks Borat Appreciate your good write ups on Wash and Nok

I enjoy people who post with write up! Always has high respect for this man.



With you on the Wiz and Spurs play, I think KD35 plays tonight even with an injury. He's young and he's hungry so you'd expect him to play tough ad suck the injury up.

like the spurs as well borat.

bol

Any thoughts on the Atlanta total? IMO, the line is set rather low

GL Borat, card looks good............

CrazyMilkMan: I don't play totals very often.  But if I were to gauge these two teams' scoring past 5 or 6 games, I see a dramatic point drop-off for both.  ATL's average score has dropped by a whopping  14.8 pts over the last 5 games coinciding with its losing streak, while NJN's defense has improved a bit, allowing an average of 98 opponents' ppg, down 4 pts from their previous average of 102 opponents' ppg.  Based on their previous matchup, when ATL was still the hottest team in the league, the total was set at 196.5 and it went over.  Now it's at 197, yet both teams' averages have slipped.  Perhaps the books are banking on an ATL scoring rampage on the part of public's perception, so they retained the old total, which is a tad too much, IMHO.  BOL if you're playing it.

akison
arcs

btw, akison, this will be my last post this week.  Am going to Thailand and the Philippines for a vacation. Be back on the 15th, post again maybe on the 16th.  BOL folks

AJSPicks: Good luck to you dude.  Got picks yet?

where exactly in phil whoa im glad u will going here.. tc brother! BOL for you

akison: I'm going to some resort named Amanpulo.  Then it's off to another beach in Thailand called Kho Pangan.  WOuld you know if Amanpulo is okay?  Brochure seems nice.  A bit expensive though, but really private, i heard.

Have a nice trip buddy.

Thanks akison.  Hope you guys hit it big to recover.

Just don't know about Washington B2B, but on the other two.

Borat - still doing the leg work & waiting for the rest of the lines.  Looks like we're going to have some preety good system plays.  Thanks for getting rid of that jerkoff in my thread from Monday.  I didn't think I needed to get involved.  I will be posting as soon as the lines get set.  Hope they don't conflict with your plays.........

AJ I'm waiting for your post man! Good to hear you've got some good ones today.

AJSPICKS, it shouldn't matter if our picks conflict. 

I have a friend whose picks are opposite mine, for some reason, even if we do our research without seeing each other.  I always just say: "May the better bet win." 

DET+9.5

gilbert arenas is on a possible suspension.. do you think they can cover in case arenas is out? thanks borat

Arenas is not going to be suspended just yet.  NBA practice is to wait until there are legal penalties before levying fines, suspension or punishment that mirror the legal penalty.  In any case, Arenas is still scheduled to meet with David Stern before it's going to be decided upon.

hey borat im kind of worried about that spurs play to, does anyone know about altercation between duncan and his coach? and hamilton could be back to his old playing style he broke out of his slump last night or do you think that was just a tease?

Jumpball, there was no altercation.  Duncan sat to save his minutes, part of a minutes management that Popovich is instituting to save Duncan for the playoffs.  Reportedly, TD isn't going to play more than 30 mins a night if possible.  Duncan wasn't happy about not being able to help his team win vs the Raptors last game, and that's what brought about the discussion with his coach.  But Duncan's a good little puppy; he is going to behave himself and play well next game.  Have you noticed? TD's pts and rebound averages are higher than that of last year.

Thanks my man

not to sure about WASH after an emotional win lastnight against the sixers...IMO they're not a good enough team to do it on B2B and i feel that the cavs are just too strong...espicially with a thrust from SHAQ ...it looks like shaunie --->

giannidis: every time Arenas has the ball in his hands, he's going to look at the paint at Shaq and think: "You bastard, you screwed my girl.  Now it's your turn to get it in the ass."   For me, that's enough motivation for WAS to cover if not win SU