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*** Miami Heatles @ San Antonio Spurs ***

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Posted: #26
Already looking ahead to tomorrow LC and this line caught my eye. Rockets are giving away 4.5 to the Pacers. Pacers have not lost three in a row all year. In fact, the last time they were in this exact position (having lost two in a row) they played the Rockets at home and destroyed them. Rockets stock is high right now as they beat a tired Heat team. Meanwhile Indiana's stock is low because they are in a funk. Indiana, however, matches up very well against the Rockets, they have everything it takes to stop them (i.e., guys who can stay with Harden) and I doubt motivation will be a factor since they are coming off two losses and the game is on national TV. I'm also sure they know that the Rockets just beat the Heat and would like nothing better than to beat the team that just beat the Heat.
 
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Posted: #27
 
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Posted: #28
I believe I have read,teams after 30 plus wins are  1-10 ATS this year.
I will also point out that there are a lot of 6.5's out there but Pinnacle has stuck with 6.  GL
 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by tuck321:

I believe I have read,teams after 30 plus wins are  1-10 ATS this year.
I will also point out that there are a lot of 6.5's out there but Pinnacle has stuck with 6.  GL

Dig a little deeper mate, first of all one year is way too small of a sample size. And second, it's important to see how those teams off 30 point wins played the game prior to that big win. That will tell you if the 30 point victory was a mirage or if they backed it up with a big win before that then maybe there just playing very good ball.

Let's take a look.

Road teams off 30 point home victories are 14-7 ATS since 2010. However, if the game prior to the 30 point home victory they also won at home by 10+ that changes to 7-1 ATS since 2010.

See my point?

 
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Posted: #30

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Already looking ahead to tomorrow LC and this line caught my eye. Rockets are giving away 4.5 to the Pacers. Pacers have not lost three in a row all year. In fact, the last time they were in this exact position (having lost two in a row) they played the Rockets at home and destroyed them. Rockets stock is high right now as they beat a tired Heat team. Meanwhile Indiana's stock is low because they are in a funk. Indiana, however, matches up very well against the Rockets, they have everything it takes to stop them (i.e., guys who can stay with Harden) and I doubt motivation will be a factor since they are coming off two losses and the game is on national TV. I'm also sure they know that the Rockets just beat the Heat and would like nothing better than to beat the team that just beat the Heat.

Could be a solid play, will look into this game later

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Already looking ahead to tomorrow LC and this line caught my eye. Rockets are giving away 4.5 to the Pacers. Pacers have not lost three in a row all year. In fact, the last time they were in this exact position (having lost two in a row) they played the Rockets at home and destroyed them. Rockets stock is high right now as they beat a tired Heat team. Meanwhile Indiana's stock is low because they are in a funk. Indiana, however, matches up very well against the Rockets, they have everything it takes to stop them (i.e., guys who can stay with Harden) and I doubt motivation will be a factor since they are coming off two losses and the game is on national TV. I'm also sure they know that the Rockets just beat the Heat and would like nothing better than to beat the team that just beat the Heat.


Backing the Pacers is suicide....
since danny granger left the pacers...
@ minn  L 104-91   ats L
@ bucks W 110-100  ats  dont know line
vs lakers  W 118-98  ats W
@ boston W 102-97  ats L 
vs utah  W 94-91  ats L
vs goldent state L 98-96  ats L
@ charlotte L 109-87   ats L

7 games so far they are 1-6 or 2-5 ATS 


they are in a funk and you wanna back them on the road against 1 of the best teams in the west????   
 
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Posted: #32
S.A. record vs teams over .500 is not good
 
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Posted: #33
Heat roll tonite
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by DukiesBaby:



Backing the Pacers is suicide....
since danny granger left the pacers...
@ minn  L 104-91   ats L
@ bucks W 110-100  ats  dont know line
vs lakers  W 118-98  ats W
@ boston W 102-97  ats L 
vs utah  W 94-91  ats L
vs goldent state L 98-96  ats L
@ charlotte L 109-87   ats L

7 games so far they are 1-6 or 2-5 ATS 


they are in a funk and you wanna back them on the road against 1 of the best teams in the west????   

Yup! In the NBA, motivation is KING. All those games you mentioned, they couldn't care less about the Bobcats, Lakers, Golden States and Minni pups of the world. But now they are down, people are doubting them, they are about to lose 3 in a row, something they have not done all year, and they are playing the team that just beat the Heat. In other words, a regular season game that really matters, or matters as much as a regular season game could. I say Indiana wins this game outright but I'll take the points, just in case.
 
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Posted: #35
You know the funniest thing? When I see people backing the Heat saying the Spurs are too old. People have been saying the Spurs are too old for 3 years now yet there contenders every single year
 
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Posted: #36
Anyone see an opening line for MEM/CHI tomorrow?
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

You know the funniest thing? When I see people backing the Heat saying the Spurs are too old. People have been saying the Spurs are too old for 3 years now yet there contenders every single year

LC, is this a case of Vegas gambling? Heat is the public team but the line keeps going up. Have not seen this in a while.
 
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Posted: #38
Could Mia give the Spurs a win so they keep pace with OKC? I think the Heat would rather play the Spurs in the finals rather then OKC so I would assume the Heat would rather the Spurs have the better record over OKC. Ind playing pretty poor as of late and the Heat look to have a slightly easier schedule to finish off the season. Maybe the Heat can afford a loss here to give the Spurs a chance to stay with in striking distance of OKC.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Anyone see an opening line for MEM/CHI tomorrow?

No. My guess is they are waiting to see if Z-bo is playing and the status of Noah's injury.
 
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Posted: #40
Good luck buddy 
 
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Posted: #41
I went on a walk this morning.  Hadn't seen your write up.  But I came back, called a friend and bet the spurs for the exact same reasons you stated.  Glad you had your reasoning-- not your metrics; which, by the way, were great in January.  This time of year appears to be more gut check picking time.  Best of luck to all.
 
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Posted: #42
Heat lost half and game against houston so i highly doubt heat lose this one.  Spurs 1h but heat 2h and game imo. 
 
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Posted: #43
LC, can you explain the line movement for me?  Looking through this thread, I was surprised to see you expected the line to get past Spurs -2.5 despite the evidence to the contrary.  Why did have the Heat gotten more points despite being +2 (-115) earlier in the day?
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


LC, is this a case of Vegas gambling? Heat is the public team but the line keeps going up. Have not seen this in a while.

No, line needs to remain steady if that's the case. For example 80% of bets on Blazers -5 and line remains that way instead of going to -5.5. That would mean there welcoming more Blazers money and aren't afraid of Blazers money.

Line moving from -2.5 to -3.5 despite public being on Heat shows that Sharps are all over the Spurs here. Big money on Spurs, little $50 public bets on Heat.

 
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Posted: #45

Quote Originally Posted by Furry_Owlet:

LC, can you explain the line movement for me?  Looking through this thread, I was surprised to see you expected the line to get past Spurs -2.5 despite the evidence to the contrary.  Why did have the Heat gotten more points despite being +2 (-115) earlier in the day?

As mentioned above, sharps are all over the Spurs here. This is the best coach in the league getting there first home game against the team that knocked them out of the Finals last year and a 5th championship ring. People only remember the last 3 matchups against these two teams where the Heat won all 3 but those were all in Miami. Game 5 of the Finals last year, the last time these two met in San Antonio, the Spurs won easily by 10

 
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Posted: #46
Is dwayne wade out for this game?
 
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Posted: #47
These teams have not beat each other twice in a row... it's a back and forth battle. I think both teams show up and the total goes under. I think they set the total about 10 points too high. Both teams understand that can possibly be seeing each other again the finals..... 

Books have this line perfectly to get in a lot of Miami money. With that being said i'm leaning towards the Spurs but it's hard to bet against Lebron now. 

I do feel pretty confident that the game will be around 96-102 points for both teams TOPS.  
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

No, line needs to remain steady if that's the case. For example 80% of bets on Blazers -5 and line remains that way instead of going to -5.5. That would mean there welcoming more Blazers money and aren't afraid of Blazers money.

Line moving from -2.5 to -3.5 despite public being on Heat shows that Sharps are all over the Spurs here. Big money on Spurs, little $50 public bets on Heat.


This line honestly is fair line i doubt it move up more. there are plenty other games later this week to bet on. Good luck something has to give heat win easy or spurs finally beat a elite team which they have issues all year that were fully healthy.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

You know the funniest thing? When I see people backing the Heat saying the Spurs are too old. People have been saying the Spurs are too old for 3 years now yet there contenders every single year


I can thing of few examples in the past when that happened. LOL. Even my old fart softball team can beat young studs since we play smarter and cut split runners, etc. Only downside with the Older players is injuries..otherwise...don't count them out!!
Jack Ryan
 
 
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Posted: #50
Love the plays LC.  Really loved OKC as my only play yesterday night.  Will add SAS now too.
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