Monday 1/25 - Picks & Syndicate Report

507 Miami Heat +7.5 -110 (1u)

This opened up at 8 and syndicate groups clearly already had a sharper number as it immediately has been pushed down to 7.5, and even 7 in some shops. Zero public money and only 30 total bets have been placed in this time frame forcing an entire point drop almost. We could even see the bottom fall out here and have this drop below 7 but we will have to wait and see. Lots of question marks with the Miami Heat injury situation, but we will agree with this quick early movement and attempt to get better than the closing line.

Full sharp report later this evening.

Sharps dummied this one up using public money to grab 214.5... Then nothing but syndicate under $$. The 1.5 point move is quite significant from a respected source, especially when you consider that 70% of the overall $$ wagered is on the over. We will tail here, as I see this line dropping even more. The true oddsmakers line here would be around 209 so lock in every bit of value as possible, and get down early here.

Interesting u say the true oddsmakers total is 209 meanwhile I'm sure this total was never open any lower than 211.5 anywhere......lol. I've talked to couple friends that bets sports and they said same thing so interesting u say true oddsmakers total is 209, I'm not saying game can't go under even though I made a small bet on O212 already last night.  Just wondering where u get this info and wouldn't the total open at 209 or within 0.5 pts of that if its a true oddsmakers total?

My advice if you aren't already doing this is take whatever this guy says with a grain of salt.  His narrative sure sounds good but he has holes through out his comments.  My personal opinion is he has no more insight than the rest of us but is really good at putting lipstick on a pig...he's already trending to tout status.

Take your question for example.  He says the true oddsmakers handicap is 209.  Ok.  Yet like you said, no book opened lower than 211.5 (I don't actually see this anywhere), most at 212.5 - 213.5 (pinnacle).  So (1) why would oddsmakers open up a line that's 2-4 points off on purpose and invite the unders? (2) why would the SHARPS seeing such a big discrepancy not hit it immediately and instead "let the public dummy it up" while taking the chance another sharp would take advantage of the immediate value and instead, have the line move away from their favor?  (3) if there is such a big discrepancy, why hasn't the books corrected this immediately?  If he knows the true handicap is 209 I'm sure the books know this too. (4) even if we believe all of the previous, for whatever reason, his supposed "SHARPS" waited for the extra value of the line being "bet up" to 214.5, the same value of which they supposedly erased now that it's back to 213.  So we should follow the "sharps" yet we can't because the line value (that they thought was important enough to wait for instead of taking the immediate 2-4 points of value from the opening) that they bet on is gone.

I'm not trying to get down on the guy and I hope he wins all his bets.  It'd just be better if he said this is MY analysis, MY numbers state 209, etc. etc.  Playing it off like he's in the know does no one any good here and probably tricks many posters into blindly following...something they shouldn't be doing with anyone anyways.

Absolutely not. Oddsmakers do not ever open the lines as what they believe the true number should be, but more so where they think they will attract the right action. They let sharps and overall money dictate what the 'true-line' should be. Hence the general importance of beating the closing line, and not the opening line. 

If you want more information don't hesitate to PM me and I could give you information further.

However... Split sharp action has now got this game pushed way back up as books don't want to be exposed. I'm still trusting in the under money as it was slightly more validated, however, there's no doubt sharps are split. Reason for the higher garbage upward is due to the barrage of public money also. Books don't want to take a position on this game and trying to limit exposure.

Partially disagree.  Your first part is correct, they set the line to attract the "right action" with that action being the action THEY want (whether it's 50/50 money, making a decision, etc.)  Your second part is incorrect though (in my opinion) as there are many instances where the books don't "let" the money dictate anything therefore the closing line is no where near the "true line".

If the books immediately take a stand on a game as evidenced by their opening number and refuse to move that line regardless of the money coming in, then your closing line is probably not the true line (see Denver/NE yesterday as a poster child example).  The key is being able to discern which opening lines the books are taking a stand on therefore seeing the "true" value in the opening line is more important than beating the closing line in many cases. Which makes me question if like you say the TRUE odds of the WAS/BOS total was 209, why would they open at 212-213 and since then barely move the number with all this public/sharp money.

Again, just my opinion which is worth as much as anyones elses.  GL bro. 

501 Minnesota Timberwolves +13.5 / Over198.5

*Sharps took small position on the Timberwolves at +13.5. However, I would not be surprised on some sharp comeback with the Cavaliers. Definitely a tough game for oddsmakers to create a true line due to all the strange factors that come in to play here. Cavaliers looked absolutely awful in the first game without their head coach, and oddsmakers expect a huge performance tonight to get back on track after being booed and called out by the Cavs fanbase for recent performances... But, are the Cavaliers that good? We will have to wait and see and definitely will not be putting any of my money down on this game. I don't believe many oddsmakers really know how this one will go down either? Current public betting percentage is 60% on the Cavs followed by 70% of the overall $$ wagered also on the Cavs. The sharper syndicate money has been all on the over here. It's been a steady flow of sharp positions taken on the over without any resistance yet. With this line up at 205, I wouldn't be surprised with some value action coming back on the under closer to tip-off.

504 Washington Wizards -1 / O/U Split

*Clear position by many confirmed sharp sources on this game. The over/under sharp action is completely split, but with the total being forced up higher than I original took a position on (as listed above). This is not due to more sharp money, but more of a case with the books taking as much exposure of the table as possible as the overall $$ wagered by the general public is hugely on the over. I have confirmation that the public % are split 50/50 but the larger players (not sharps) are taking the over also, which is the reason for the 75% of the overall $ wagered being on the over. The biggest sharp action on this game is on the Wizards spread. No comeback yet with the Celtics and I do not expect we will see any. Current betting percentages are 50/50 with the side, but 75% of clear confirmed sharp money on the home team here. Wizards have looked fantastic over the last 7 games, so difficult to go against the sharps opinion here.. I am in agreement. Ship may have sailed however.

505 Orlando Magic +6.5

*Steady stream of respected money coming in on the Magic. 70% of the public are backing the Grizzlies but we are seeing 70% of the overall $$ wagered on the opposite side. Clear position taken by syndicates alike. The line may have lost its value, but this should hopefully take you off a bad potential wager on the Grizzlies.

507 Miami Heat +8

*We have a position on this game already so see above write up. Line is currently at 7.5 after dropping to 7. I expect to see some more late money coming back in on the Heat. Many groups waiting for confirmation on Luol Deng and Dwayne Wade. Both are expected to play, but general health and overall effectiveness is yet to be learned. If you plan on taking the Heat, I would take them now, as I see this line dropping a half point or so before tip-off.

516 Sacramento Kings -6.5

*Some sharp action taking the Kings in this spot. Not much. But enough to warrant a repot. I don't see much happening with this line now we see -7.5. More than likely some comeback action to bring this down to settle at 7. Interestingly enough, there's all this talk each game the Kings play about Rudy happy's overall health but it's all BS public perception. You want to know the real truth? Oddsmakers alike value Rudy happy as a 0.2 point difference maker. When he become probable or a 'will play'  bookmakers inflate the line by a point, knowing public will chase and will be collecting in the long term... Public don't have the resources to cap this type of information as far as pure value each player in the league has, and bookmakers will generally take advantage of this. So don't be that sucker in the future.

517 San Antonio Spurs +6 to +5... 

*Mainly all sharp money at the moment on this key matchup taking the Spurs down to +4.5 at most shops now. However, I wouldn't be touching this game at all. There is some questions behind the true strength of this sharp $$ and could be a setup spot for the Warriors. Truth is, oddsmakers are somewhat struggling with this matchup. Most ratings and true lines point to a Warriors 3 point win, making the true line at -3... However, the reason for the inflation is not down to public perception.. There are some situational spots and trends that are also counted in to these numbers, and I can tell you that those have the Warriors winning by 7.5/8 points... Not sure anyone has a really good feel or confident pick on this game, and would not recommend playing. Maybe the picture will become clearer closer to tip-off and I will report back. 

I understand all your are asking here, and I mean no disrespect when I say this but.. This is the opinion of each and every local weekend warrior on the planet. There's too little time to really explain the ins and outs of my previous job as an oddsmaker, but I have seen it all... Listen... You couldn't be further from the truth in most your opinions but that's OK. I am here trying to help the majority of bettors make smart decisions and even if you don't take the pick, understand what is truly going on behind the scenes as not every line move is a result of sharp money... Books know the public have become smarter... Back in the day the public had no real clue about line movements and sharp money / steam etc so it was a clear discrepancy with syndicate groups and your average joe. Now, books have been forced to adjust and they literally BS the public on a bunch of line moves. Usually a book could be receiving the action they want on a team -3 for example, knowing the line is off by a few points.. But the sharp money might not match up to the public money so rather than moving the line down, which they 'usually' do .. they will test the public and nudge it to -3.5 (even though they already saw sharp money at +3 the other way). The public will then THINK that's what the pros must be on, and continue to chase even more.. this allows books to pull in the steam chasers that wouldn't have bet necessarily, and they may even do this up to -4, and again to -4.5 before sharps decide to take another lick at a higher number, which is where the line will eventually settle. The closing line isn't always the 'true line' as books tend to take positions on most games... but, when this isn't the case and the books are adjusting consistently throughout the day / evening.. it usually is. I'm just telling you the facts, and my experience and previous work shouldn't be in question when I tell you this. It is what it is, and yes you are entitled to an opinion... But my theories are not opinion... They are real factual movements that i personally used to assist in making. Appreciate all the conversation and feedback from you all though. I'm here to help and that's all there is to it.

Based off the information above I will go ahead and take a bite on the Magic +5.5. This number is still hanging round some squarer books, and I would still be OK with taking the +5 if you cannot find that number. Would have preferred to take the 6 in this spot but I just don't see it getting back up there. Sharps have taken a clear position and I will join in before the number drops even more. We didn't quite catch the best of it, like usual, but I do not think it will matter here. I make the true line 3.5 here.

Good Luck

I'll be browsing your threads and any other insight you give is always appreciated.  Again, not bashing, just trying to make the most educated guess I can.  Thanks.

No problem at all.. I used to work for many years as an oddsmaker that's why I am not offering general 'opinion'... Please read the following thread when I joined Covers.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=102229655

SAF making his very first post on his brand new account in this thread giving thanks and appreciate on the "quality info"?  shocking.

On the hand picked plays I have personally been taking, I am a slow 10-9.. I have been tracking those. I know the general sharp reports have done much, much better however I am unsure of the actual YTD as I am only tracking my personal plays. I'm not really about being a service for you guys to track but more of an information download spot, if you will. I'll update from time to time on my persona record, but this information is for information purposes so you can all start making smarter decisions. That's all :)

I've been doing this on my own for over a year now and ever since being on the other side of the window have been making a nice living.. It's profitable information and very much so long term... I've been right around the golden 58% mark since doing this myself as the contacts and experience I have is legitimate. It is up to you what you choose to do with the information.

Seems like this has been happening way too often this season...dog loses the cover in OT...multiple possession spreads too!  If only they lost in reg time lol.