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NBA - Relative Point Spread Rankings (All Star Break)

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Posted: #26
BOS -2.8
CLE +0.6
--------------------
CLE -3.5 (GUESS: BOS -1)
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by FantasyStocks:

Twolves +6.5 on Tuesday and it looks like so far the public is still on LAC

Yeah, I'm liking that play a lot.  I thought the line would be much lower.  Lot of value on the Tuesday card.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


BOS -2.8
CLE +0.6
--------------------
CLE -3.5  (GUESS:  BOS -1)  (ACTUAL:  BOS -3.5)

GS -2.8
IND +2.1
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IND -5.0  (GUESS:  IND -6.5)  (ACTUAL:  IND -5)

PHI +0.2
DET -2.1
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PHI -2.5  (GUESS:  PHI -5.5)  (ACTUAL:  PHI -4)

NO -1.7
CHI +5.9
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CHI -7.5  (GUESS:  CHI -11.5)  (ACTUAL:  CHI -13)

WAS -6.7
MIL -1.4
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MIL -5.5  (GUESS:  MIL -5.5)  (ACTUAL:  MIL -7.5)

TOR -4.6 
HOU -3.4
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HOU -8.0  (GUESS:  HOU -8)  (ACTUAL:  HOU -9.5)

NJ -3.5
DAL +1.7
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DAL -5.0  (GUESS:  DAL -6.5)  (ACTUAL:  DAL -10.5)

UTA -5.5
SAC -0.6
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SAC -5.0  (GUESS:  SAC -2.5)  (ACTUAL:  SAC -2)

MIN +0.7
LAC +2.7
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LAC -2.0  (GUESS:  LAC -3)  (ACTUAL:  LAC -6.5)

Couple thoughts in the form of questions for all you inquisitive bastards out there:


Is the extra rest of the all-star-break worth 7 points of premium on a Celtic team that is 4-9 on the road?

It didn't take long for Philadelphia to fall out of public favor, but they're still a top 5 overall defense in the NBA.  However, they still can't defend the paint.  Can they end their losing streak on the road against a team that takes the second most shots per game inside 9 feet?

The Bulls are one of the most public teams in the league playing against one of the least public teams.  Would you know value if it hit you in the face?

Should the 13-20 Bucks be laying 7.5 points to anyone (even the Wizards)?

If this season and last has taught us anything about the Mavericks, it's that they need rhythm to play well.  Are they ready to be laying 10 points to a New Jersey team that actually plays better on the road after taking a week off for the all-star-game?
 
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Posted: #29
Nice work, very similar to my power rankings, with a few exceptions. 

Most notably:
Not sure why you kicked the Spurs so far down the road rankings, they are my #5 road team and they have beaten more top-10 teams on the road than anyone else (4)

You boosted Boston's road ranking quite a bit, they've gone 1-5 against top-15 teams on the road. Boston is my #25 road team.

According to my rankings, more road teams play better on the road than you mentioned.  I attribute the disparity to several factors,

Weak/embarrassing home crowd:
Phoenix
New Orleans

Road teams bring their "A" game to your arena:
New York

Hate their arena:
New Jersey

Nice work, all-around.  Criticism intended to be nothing but constructive.  Good luck.

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by capperintuition:

Nice work, very similar to my power rankings, with a few exceptions. 

Most notably:
Not sure why you kicked the Spurs so far down the road rankings, they are my #5 road team and they have beaten more top-10 teams on the road than anyone else (4)

You boosted Boston's road ranking quite a bit, they've gone 1-5 against top-15 teams on the road. Boston is my #25 road team.

According to my rankings, more road teams play better on the road than you mentioned.  I attribute the disparity to several factors,

Weak/embarrassing home crowd:
Phoenix
New Orleans

Road teams bring their "A" game to your arena:
New York

Hate their arena:
New Jersey

Nice work, all-around.  Criticism intended to be nothing but constructive.  Good luck.


Yeah those top-10 titles are a little misleading.  The subtext is really what those rankings are all about.  It's the differential between that team's home PSR and their road PSR.  It's not really a true judge of home court advantage.  It's more a judge of how much better that team plays at home versus on the road.

I'm not surprised that your rankings will differ a bit from mine.  These numbers are an unadjusted output from a formula.  It's all statistics.  There's no line analysis, SOS analysis, point differential analysis.  It's just the four factors and a couple others converted into a PPG +/-.

Thanks for the insight and I definitely appreciate the critique.  I post my research on here for exactly this reason.  Looking forward to talking basketball with you in the second half of the season.

Cheers to continued success.  
 
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Posted: #31
Love the Kings tomorrow.  They have been playing well since inserting Isaiah Thomas into the lineup and they just reached an agreement to keep the team in Sacramento.  Crowd will be fired up.  And like you said the public will like Utah with this line, even though they are awful on the road.
 
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Posted: #32
si1ly: Thanks for the compliment in BlueJayBuckets thread.


Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #33
Thanks for sharing all your hard work! Very much appreciated!
 
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Posted: #34
 
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Posted: #35
great stuff si1ly........i've often debated how much better an NBA season would be if it were always played at around 60 regular season games.....in the case of your model though I will be interested to see what your data says next season when 82 games are played...the more the better it seems ....BOL 
 
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Posted: #36
Thanks for sharing!  First time i looked into your thread regarding RPSR.  

I'm going to be on Sac and NJ tomorrow, so according to your charts/rankings.  There is value to be had with both plays as the predicted point differentials says Sac(-2.5) should be favored by 5 and dallas(-10.5) should be favored by 5 as well.   


Thanks!
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by mylife23:

great stuff si1ly........i've often debated how much better an NBA season would be if it were always played at around 60 regular season games.....in the case of your model though I will be interested to see what your data says next season when 82 games are played...the more the better it seems ....BOL 

In my opinion the sport would be better with only 60 regular season games if they started the season in the beginning of November.  60 games in a condensed schedule is a bad thing.  This sport allows superstars to have long careers.  The easier the scheduling, the higher the performance all around - and ultimately the league will have more stars playing at a high level for a longer time.  It will never happen though.  Professional sports are all about the bottom line, and they make more money the more games are played.
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by bm3power:

Thanks for sharing!  First time i looked into your thread regarding RPSR.  

I'm going to be on Sac and NJ tomorrow, so according to your charts/rankings.  There is value to be had with both plays as the predicted point differentials says Sac(-2.5) should be favored by 5 and dallas(-10.5) should be favored by 5 as well.   


Thanks!

There's a lot of inflation across the board today.  I bet the dogs go better than .500 ATS.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


There's a lot of inflation across the board today.  I bet the dogs go better than .500 ATS.
 
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Posted: #40
There were 4 teams last night that had more than 3.5 points of value: CLE, NOH, NJN, MIN. All 4 of them covered and 2 of them won on the moneyline as dogs.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

There were 4 teams last night that had more than 3.5 points of value: CLE, NOH, NJN, MIN. All 4 of them covered and 2 of them won on the moneyline as dogs.


Yep, I was on three of those games thanks to your model.



Thanks si1ly!
 
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Posted: #42
WED. FEB 29, 2012 LINE ANALYSIS
(GAMES WITH +3.5 VALUE IN GREEN)

OKC +2.2
PHI +4.4
--------------------
PHI -2.0  (ACTUAL:  OKC -3.5)

ORL +2.1
WAS -2.8
--------------------
ORL -5.0  (ACTUAL:  ORL -8)

MIL -3.6
BOS +3.0
--------------------
BOS -6.5  (ACTUAL:  BOS -6.5)

CLE -1.6
NYK +1.0
--------------------
NYK -2.5  (ACTUAL:  NYK -10)

CHA -8.0
DET -2.1
--------------------
DET -6  (ACTUAL:  DET -5.5)

DAL  +0.5
MEM +3.2
--------------------
MEM -2.5  (ACTUAL:  MEM -2)

TOR -4.6
NOH -2.4
--------------------
NOH -2  (ACTUAL:  NOH -3.5)

CHI +4.4
SAS +4.7
--------------------
SAS PK  (ACTUAL:  SAS -2.5)

HOU -2.1
UTA +3.0
--------------------
UTA -5  (ACTUAL:  UTA -2.5)

MIN +0.7
LAL +6.3
--------------------
LAL -5.5  (ACTUAL:  LAL -7.5)

POR -2.5
DEN +2.6
--------------------
DEN -5  (ACTUAL:  OFF)

GSW -2.8
ATL +2.9
--------------------
ATL -6  (ACTUAL:  OFF)
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by bagochips:



Yep, I was on three of those games thanks to your model.



Thanks si1ly!

NICE!  Silly me, I decided to pass on the ATS card to see how teams played coming out of the break.. played two totals.. and lost two totals.  Glad somebody profited using my work last night, because it certainly wasn't me!

 
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Posted: #44

Thanks for all the hard work you put in for us!...what do you think about:

-Minn tonight at LAL? Kobe will not play because of his concussion. Love is probable to play and i think they have too much depth on the bench and their back court is too good for a Kobe-less lakers. As well, Rubio and Barea should be able to run around Fisher. Not to mention, no player for the Timberwolves played over 30 minutes last night. They have the size to contain and limit Pau and Bynum. And without Kobe, they wont be getting nearly as many opportunities

 
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Posted: #45
I'm already on Cleveland +10 tonight and I'm waiting for Philadelphia to hit +4 before I play them.  I've said this many times in write-ups this season that PHI is weak on the interior but excellent at spot up defense.  OKC doesn't have an interior - they're primarily a jump shooting team.  PHI played terrific defense last night and it looks like they came out of the break with some of the freshest legs.  They might win outright.
 
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Posted: #46
So, according to your system, which plays are recommended? 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

I'm already on Cleveland +10 tonight and I'm waiting for Philadelphia to hit +4 before I play them.  I've said this many times in write-ups this season that PHI is weak on the interior but excellent at spot up defense.  OKC doesn't have an interior - they're primarily a jump shooting team.  PHI played terrific defense last night and it looks like they came out of the break with some of the freshest legs.  They might win outright.

IMO, you are correct about OKC being a jump shooting team but they attack the rim A LOT. That would be my only concern vs a very weak interior team in Phili....Does that not concern you?
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by afgking4life:


Thanks for all the hard work you put in for us!...what do you think about:

-Minn tonight at LAL? Kobe will not play because of his concussion. Love is probable to play and i think they have too much depth on the bench and their back court is too good for a Kobe-less lakers. As well, Rubio and Barea should be able to run around Fisher. Not to mention, no player for the Timberwolves played over 30 minutes last night. They have the size to contain and limit Pau and Bynum. And without Kobe, they wont be getting nearly as many opportunities


It will depend on the line.  Kobe is everything to that team.  He's the equivalent of Manning to the Colts.  Without Kobe, they're a 1-15 team so to speak.  If you can get Minnesota at +3 or more, they're definitely worth a look.  Let's wait and see how many points Vegas thinks Kobe is worth first...
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by afgking4life:


IMO, you are correct about OKC being a jump shooting team but they attack the rim A LOT. That would be my only concern vs a very weak interior team in Phili....Does that not concern you?

A little, but I'm much more concerned about size on the interior against Philly. OKC is a lot like CHI.. they like to penetrate when they can but not with much size.  Philly beat Chicago as home dogs with a similar line earlier this season.  OKC attempts 70% of their on the court offense with jump shots (that's top 10 in the league).  To put that into perspective with other jump shooting teams:  SAS (71%), ATL (71%), BOS (71%), LAL (75%).  By the way, Chicago is at 66%.  Philly will struggle against teams like Miami that drive with size.
 
 
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Posted: #50
The line for the MIN/LAL game came out at +4...

I couldn't help but take it. I believe Minn wins straight up.
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