with regards to post #2 let's say you have houston as 8 point favorites, and then actual line is 2.5. Does this system go WITH or AGAINST houston.
Im usually the contrarian. others might think getting houston is a "bargain" at 2.5. i would usually think of it as luring in more bets on houston at 2.5-the sucker bet.
lol.
Oh covers.
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Quote Originally Posted by TsikenBreast:
with regards to post #2 let's say you have houston as 8 point favorites, and then actual line is 2.5. Does this system go WITH or AGAINST houston.
Im usually the contrarian. others might think getting houston is a "bargain" at 2.5. i would usually think of it as luring in more bets on houston at 2.5-the sucker bet.
I would think injuries and last minute roster changes is something that can be adjusted into the line once the model spits out a number, for example the model says -8 for Houston, the four players being out for Houston would probably account for a 2 pnt line change, so the true difference between the model and actual line would be -6 (model) and -2.5 (actual)
Big Ballin' since '02
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I would think injuries and last minute roster changes is something that can be adjusted into the line once the model spits out a number, for example the model says -8 for Houston, the four players being out for Houston would probably account for a 2 pnt line change, so the true difference between the model and actual line would be -6 (model) and -2.5 (actual)
I don't expect anything from it betting wise at this stage, and am not picking games as of yet, but over all games it's around 50% (which you'd expect from any model or capper picking ALL games). But this is just a week so it's a meaningless sample anyway. Please everyone read the first post carefully since I'm under no illusion that I'm "beating books" here. What I want insight into is why it is off when it's off, since most of the times it mimics Vegas lines very close. That's why I'm interested in your input on factors OUTSIDE of the model for given games.
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I don't expect anything from it betting wise at this stage, and am not picking games as of yet, but over all games it's around 50% (which you'd expect from any model or capper picking ALL games). But this is just a week so it's a meaningless sample anyway. Please everyone read the first post carefully since I'm under no illusion that I'm "beating books" here. What I want insight into is why it is off when it's off, since most of the times it mimics Vegas lines very close. That's why I'm interested in your input on factors OUTSIDE of the model for given games.
How has your model done in recent days over what the books are putting out there? 25 point difference in a total is huge!!!
You need to go back up in the thread and read where he stated that he had manually input some information incorrectly. When he corrected it, the numbers came out a bit closer.
It's strange how people are either missing or not reading some key posts in this very short thread.
Or, reading comprehension is suffering from hangover/stoned problems....might be it.
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Quote Originally Posted by BigJoe83:
How has your model done in recent days over what the books are putting out there? 25 point difference in a total is huge!!!
You need to go back up in the thread and read where he stated that he had manually input some information incorrectly. When he corrected it, the numbers came out a bit closer.
It's strange how people are either missing or not reading some key posts in this very short thread.
Or, reading comprehension is suffering from hangover/stoned problems....might be it.
Oops forget about that, sorted a table the wrong way and input the first results this season into my sheet. Gotta be careful w manual handling of data. these are the correct Lines, still lower by the model:
Model
OKC99.7+2.0201.4
PHO 101.7-2.0
Pinnacle
OKC107.0+1.0213.5
PHO 107.5-1.0
Here is Bermax's corrected input on that OKC/PHO game, BigJoe.
Bermax, I really appreciate your work on this and I will be following it carefully. I am always very interested in the numbers side of handicapping as it is exactly as you describe it...a great place to start handicapping. Taking into account all the other variables is needed but if you don't have the basic statistical analysis correct, you are going to have a tough time.
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:
Oops forget about that, sorted a table the wrong way and input the first results this season into my sheet. Gotta be careful w manual handling of data. these are the correct Lines, still lower by the model:
Model
OKC99.7+2.0201.4
PHO 101.7-2.0
Pinnacle
OKC107.0+1.0213.5
PHO 107.5-1.0
Here is Bermax's corrected input on that OKC/PHO game, BigJoe.
Bermax, I really appreciate your work on this and I will be following it carefully. I am always very interested in the numbers side of handicapping as it is exactly as you describe it...a great place to start handicapping. Taking into account all the other variables is needed but if you don't have the basic statistical analysis correct, you are going to have a tough time.
Hey Bermax, would you mind showing what lines you've generated for the rest of today's games? Really wanted to follow closely. Thanks.
Ok, here they are. Looking forward I still think I will keep disclosing those lines which are most off since I think that those are the ones most interesting both to model makers and bettors alike.
LA97.50.6195.6
BRK98.1-0.6
MIN94.17.2195.3
NOP101.2-7.2
PHI92.210.9195.3
CLE103.1-10.9
LAC104.1-7.0201.1
BOS97.07.0
DET94.7-0.7188.7
MIA94.00.7
DAL100.9-0.5201.4
IND100.50.5
MEM92.811.7197.3
SAS104.5-11.7
OKC99.72.0201.3
PHO101.7-2.0
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Quote Originally Posted by Crazydave1050:
Hey Bermax, would you mind showing what lines you've generated for the rest of today's games? Really wanted to follow closely. Thanks.
Ok, here they are. Looking forward I still think I will keep disclosing those lines which are most off since I think that those are the ones most interesting both to model makers and bettors alike.
So according to your model Lakers would be a play. Model Line: +0.6 actual line: +8
Here even I can understand why the line differs. Lakers have nothing to play for, right, and could be tanking, as opposed to Brooklyn with plenty to play for. That notion would move a raw stats line quite a bit don't you think?
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Quote Originally Posted by JVH1818:
So according to your model Lakers would be a play. Model Line: +0.6 actual line: +8
Here even I can understand why the line differs. Lakers have nothing to play for, right, and could be tanking, as opposed to Brooklyn with plenty to play for. That notion would move a raw stats line quite a bit don't you think?
Here even I can understand why the line differs. Lakers have nothing to play for, right, and could be tanking, as opposed to Brooklyn with plenty to play for. That notion would move a raw stats line quite a bit don't you think?
I understand, but I was looking purely at the numbers, just how to read them
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Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:
Here even I can understand why the line differs. Lakers have nothing to play for, right, and could be tanking, as opposed to Brooklyn with plenty to play for. That notion would move a raw stats line quite a bit don't you think?
I understand, but I was looking purely at the numbers, just how to read them
I think this method might be more effective in the 1st part of season. Now, besides these numbers, you have to look for a wider picture. These numbers might be a good start point in analysys. Nice work Bermax. BOL.
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I think this method might be more effective in the 1st part of season. Now, besides these numbers, you have to look for a wider picture. These numbers might be a good start point in analysys. Nice work Bermax. BOL.
Read DISCLOSURE in first post ;-). Will not be taking the word "pick" or "play" in my own mouth. looking forward to enriching discussion on interesting lines.
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Quote Originally Posted by WarrENDeatH:
So...no plays then!?
Read DISCLOSURE in first post ;-). Will not be taking the word "pick" or "play" in my own mouth. looking forward to enriching discussion on interesting lines.
Read DISCLOSURE in first post ;-). Will not be taking the word "pick" or "play" in my own mouth. looking forward to enriching discussion on interesting lines.
You're right, my fault. I took some of these, let's see what happens.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:
Read DISCLOSURE in first post ;-). Will not be taking the word "pick" or "play" in my own mouth. looking forward to enriching discussion on interesting lines.
You're right, my fault. I took some of these, let's see what happens.
I don't expect anything from it betting wise at this stage, and am not picking games as of yet, but over all games it's around 50% (which you'd expect from any model or capper picking ALL games). But this is just a week so it's a meaningless sample anyway. Please everyone read the first post carefully since I'm under no illusion that I'm "beating books" here. What I want insight into is why it is off when it's off, since most of the times it mimics Vegas lines very close. That's why I'm interested in your input on factors OUTSIDE of the model for given games.
Lines can be off for things like.....regression to the mean.... very big in sports betting.
For example, If a team averages 50% shooting from the field that does not mean they shoot 50% every game but sometimes they can shoot well above that 50% and then they must fall below 50% to get back to the 50% average.....regression.
Sharps play regression big time which causes books to adjust the lines. Some regression methods are very popular and the books know them and will adjust the lines accordingly expecting big money from sharps, while the unsuspecting public gamble who only follows the sport can not understand the line.
Along a similar line you have motivation factors for teams. For example top teams will bring their biggest effort and energy against other top teams and big rivals, and then coming off big emotional wins and facing an easy weak opponent will fail to match the same intensity they gave against the top team. They'll go through the motions and win a close game.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:
I don't expect anything from it betting wise at this stage, and am not picking games as of yet, but over all games it's around 50% (which you'd expect from any model or capper picking ALL games). But this is just a week so it's a meaningless sample anyway. Please everyone read the first post carefully since I'm under no illusion that I'm "beating books" here. What I want insight into is why it is off when it's off, since most of the times it mimics Vegas lines very close. That's why I'm interested in your input on factors OUTSIDE of the model for given games.
Lines can be off for things like.....regression to the mean.... very big in sports betting.
For example, If a team averages 50% shooting from the field that does not mean they shoot 50% every game but sometimes they can shoot well above that 50% and then they must fall below 50% to get back to the 50% average.....regression.
Sharps play regression big time which causes books to adjust the lines. Some regression methods are very popular and the books know them and will adjust the lines accordingly expecting big money from sharps, while the unsuspecting public gamble who only follows the sport can not understand the line.
Along a similar line you have motivation factors for teams. For example top teams will bring their biggest effort and energy against other top teams and big rivals, and then coming off big emotional wins and facing an easy weak opponent will fail to match the same intensity they gave against the top team. They'll go through the motions and win a close game.
Interesting input and that's exactly why I think it's valuable to have a good stats base line that you trust, then you can spot games where other factors are in play big time and make your own judgement about the size of their impact spread wise.
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Interesting input and that's exactly why I think it's valuable to have a good stats base line that you trust, then you can spot games where other factors are in play big time and make your own judgement about the size of their impact spread wise.
A good line will do exactly the same as the vegas line and results will spread out on each side of the line in a bell curve fashion - many results close but quite a few off many many points to either side. This is why I intend to concentrate only games where the line differs markedly from vegas since I think discussion in the thread will be more focused and rewarding.
Hope you understand this reasoning, will not be posting complete cards looking forward.
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A good line will do exactly the same as the vegas line and results will spread out on each side of the line in a bell curve fashion - many results close but quite a few off many many points to either side. This is why I intend to concentrate only games where the line differs markedly from vegas since I think discussion in the thread will be more focused and rewarding.
Hope you understand this reasoning, will not be posting complete cards looking forward.
Oops forget about that, sorted a table the wrong way and input the first results this season into my sheet. Gotta be careful w manual handling of data. these are the correct Lines, still lower by the model:
Model
OKC99.7+2.0201.4
PHO 101.7-2.0
Pinnacle
OKC107.0+1.0213.5
PHO 107.5-1.0
So let's focus on this matchup which I think is the remaining interesting one today. We are in agreement on the spread, but books put the total at 213.5, implying either that this game will be played at around 100 pace quite a bit above their usual pace over the last games and the season, or at a normal pace but that both teams will play a better offense/sloppier defense than their average (or a combination of these two scenarios).
Thoughts on the matchup and the lines?
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Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:
Oops forget about that, sorted a table the wrong way and input the first results this season into my sheet. Gotta be careful w manual handling of data. these are the correct Lines, still lower by the model:
Model
OKC99.7+2.0201.4
PHO 101.7-2.0
Pinnacle
OKC107.0+1.0213.5
PHO 107.5-1.0
So let's focus on this matchup which I think is the remaining interesting one today. We are in agreement on the spread, but books put the total at 213.5, implying either that this game will be played at around 100 pace quite a bit above their usual pace over the last games and the season, or at a normal pace but that both teams will play a better offense/sloppier defense than their average (or a combination of these two scenarios).
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