Thanks - only good for O/U but it's got a killer win rate for that so I just pour my bets into it. Figured I might help some other people out some since it's no skin off my nose.
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Thanks - only good for O/U but it's got a killer win rate for that so I just pour my bets into it. Figured I might help some other people out some since it's no skin off my nose.
I took dallas +2 along with the under on the Houston game. What does your model show for the Houston Orlando game Andrew?
Quote Originally Posted by southexpert:
Yes what does your model show for the over and under for tonight's game?
Ty and bol
Hey Guys. The model was not definitive on that game. One method said Under. One method said Over.
I use multiple algorithms in the model to approach each game from multiple approaches. When they agree the hit rate is around 60% (some years high 50's, some low 60's).
I don't bet - and definately don't post picks for others - if they don't agree because the risk is abnormally high in those cases. If I don't post a pick here then it means the model's different approaches did not agree and I can't be comfortable the picks fall within my acceptable risk parameters. Sorry - wish I could be of more help on this one. Best of luck.
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Quote Originally Posted by Lebo4020:
I took dallas +2 along with the under on the Houston game. What does your model show for the Houston Orlando game Andrew?
Quote Originally Posted by southexpert:
Yes what does your model show for the over and under for tonight's game?
Ty and bol
Hey Guys. The model was not definitive on that game. One method said Under. One method said Over.
I use multiple algorithms in the model to approach each game from multiple approaches. When they agree the hit rate is around 60% (some years high 50's, some low 60's).
I don't bet - and definately don't post picks for others - if they don't agree because the risk is abnormally high in those cases. If I don't post a pick here then it means the model's different approaches did not agree and I can't be comfortable the picks fall within my acceptable risk parameters. Sorry - wish I could be of more help on this one. Best of luck.
I keep that pretty locked down. Sorry. I want to help others of course, but I've spent hundreds of hours programming my NFL, NBA and Soccer models and it was hard fought to get good, consistent accuracy rates / returns on them all. If I had a million dollar bankroll I would have my feet up on an island somewhere betting from my laptop and snorkeling afterwords. But, the bankroll isn't quite there yet, but it's coming along nicely...
I will say the following and hope that it helps get others pointed into a good direction. Notice I don't say "right" direction because I know there are alot of ways to skin this cat.
My models for NBA, NFL and soccer are very similar in structure. They consider recent form, home vs. away, offensive and defensive strength and use readily available data. Some of them only project winners/spreads well and some only project over/unders well and some project it all well. For instance, my soccer model is great with the big Euro leagues at picking winners - but a little less than average at over/unders for those soccer leagues so I don't bet over/unders on soccer. But, my NBA model is great at over/unders...
I found projecting based on different algorithms and then comparing for consistency helps to eliminate games which are too risky. In other words, my models are looking for ways to remove games from the betting pool. By doing this, I'm eliminating losses (which is as good as a win to me) and the remaining games can be bet with a higher accuracy rate.
I could talk about it for hours...Good luck. Hope this helped a little.
0
I keep that pretty locked down. Sorry. I want to help others of course, but I've spent hundreds of hours programming my NFL, NBA and Soccer models and it was hard fought to get good, consistent accuracy rates / returns on them all. If I had a million dollar bankroll I would have my feet up on an island somewhere betting from my laptop and snorkeling afterwords. But, the bankroll isn't quite there yet, but it's coming along nicely...
I will say the following and hope that it helps get others pointed into a good direction. Notice I don't say "right" direction because I know there are alot of ways to skin this cat.
My models for NBA, NFL and soccer are very similar in structure. They consider recent form, home vs. away, offensive and defensive strength and use readily available data. Some of them only project winners/spreads well and some only project over/unders well and some project it all well. For instance, my soccer model is great with the big Euro leagues at picking winners - but a little less than average at over/unders for those soccer leagues so I don't bet over/unders on soccer. But, my NBA model is great at over/unders...
I found projecting based on different algorithms and then comparing for consistency helps to eliminate games which are too risky. In other words, my models are looking for ways to remove games from the betting pool. By doing this, I'm eliminating losses (which is as good as a win to me) and the remaining games can be bet with a higher accuracy rate.
I could talk about it for hours...Good luck. Hope this helped a little.
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