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NBA Over/Under Projections - High Accuracy Model

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

We hit a pretty bad beat there in the Spurs/Pistons game Andrew, the pace was there, just brick-city, especially in the 1st quarter.  

We're also together on the final play of the night, although I don't like that Butler is playing. My personal cap was without Butler in there. 

Yes it was ugly. Final play came through though to salvage most of the night. On to next picks...
 
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Posted: #52
Feb 11:
So far I've got

Orlando Magic v. Dallas Mavericks  -   Over  204.5

Phoenix Suns v. Houston Rockets  -   Under  231.5

Golden State Warriors v. Oklahoma City Thunder  -   Under  228

Boston Celtics v. Utah Jazz  -   Over  204
 
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Posted: #53
Thanks Andrew. Good Luck today. 
 
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Posted: #54
13-12 Since he first posted
good luck in the future but with juice losing money on this system
 
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Posted: #55
??
 
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Posted: #56
Thanks for your post.
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by PAZ:

13-12 Since he first posted
good luck in the future but with juice losing money on this system

Understood.

To be fair though...The difference between the 52% win rate (the 13-12 you quoted) and the low 60% range I expect for a 25 game sample size is like a 2 game swing so this kind of record is well within variance tolerances for such a crazy small sample size. 

Best of luck to you. Cheers.
 
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Posted: #58
Liking Boston jazz over gl 
 
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Posted: #59
Damn you took spurs over with detriot? that was asking for trouble/
I only do overs, Rarely ats or moneyline. 
Only do overs because i would never bank on players
not to produce unless its these few teams
I (my personal opinion) would never take overs with
Spurs,( Years of playing strict defense ) no brainer
Jazz, (Created a system that ranks them #1 in defense)
Orlando,( Weakest offense , Lengthy defense)
memphis, ( This is a depending on who they are facing)
Those 4 teams are the death of overs. and always will be
Houston and Phoenix by the way will probably go over. They dont set the over at 231.5 so everyone will just bet under. These teams play zero defense and all offense. It will go way over. if not go under by just 1 mere point. 

 
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Posted: #60
Eric Bledsoe isn't playing tonight. 

Also, if you REALLY knew your stuff about totals, you would know that the Spurs have been an Over machine until the last 6. Sure, they are 5-1 for the UNDER in the last six, but prior to that they were 14-4 for the OVER. 

Your "Under Loving" Spurs would have you 4-14 if you bet them for the Under every game for three weeks before the last week and a half. Sounds like an Over team to me. 

Also, Orlando has begun trying to push the tempo to beat teams. This trend was non existent prior to the last two, but in the last two, by my calculations they have gone Over in 93% of the total minutes played. That's ridiculous. 

Add that to the fact that they are playing Dallas, who have gone OVER in 4 of their last 5, I think you have a perfectly good play for Over. 

Oh, by the way, the Jazz have also gone Over in 5 of their last 6. It's all good bro, I understand your proclivities are your proclivities, but you need to watch the micro trends as well as the macro trends to succeed nightly. 

Sometimes Utah Over is the play, sometimes Houston Under is. The Total has gone Under in Regulation in 5 of Houston's last 6. 

 
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Posted: #61
Utah went over 3 of the last games with one being OT the rest were all strong unders so im not sure what your talking about. 

And orlando are you kidding me im looking at it now about 5 or 6 out of the last 20 went over. and for about 10 games straight they scored 98points or less.

Houston went over 8 of the last 10
 god damn who are you getting your lines from bud?

and spurs like i said ive been doing over/under for years 
Half of the spurs were injured during those games with the full
team almost back itll be unders as they go.

But its clear as day your 12-13 picking spurs 
which yesterday when i cleared 4000$ on overs from the BUNCHS of games that went over except the two obvious ones miami and Brooklyn, Spurs and detriot .  Good luck on your picks
ill be back at midnight sharp! 

Denver vs cleveland OVER
GS vs OKC Over 
Pheonix vs Houston OVER

 
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Posted: #62
I'll respond to these individually, since the first thing your wrote was incorrect. 

1. Utah's game against Dallas went Over in regulation, no Overtime needed. 
2. the fourth game they played (you said only the last three went Under) was against Charlotte, a game that finished at 203 total points when the Total was 197.5. That's FOUR STRAIGHT Overs for Utah. 
 
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Posted: #63
Orlando was an Under team for me all year, I bet them Under as part of a consistency system (where I will lose here and there but come out on top in the end), but the game against Houston flew Over 223, and it was because Orlando was running the floor. RUNNING the floor. I took it as a strong micro trend, so when they faced the Over-loving Philadelphia 76ers, I bet them Over, it won going over in 3 of 4 Quarters. 

Most don't do this, but I keep track of Minutes Over and Under the Total, in which the Magic are Over in 93% of their quarters in the last two games. 

Again, on this team, I agree with you that the MACRO trend is Under, but the micro trend is strong for the Over. 
 
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Posted: #64
Thanks guys for giving me something to do on a slow afternoon
very entertaining little scuffle you two have
 
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Posted: #65
"Houston went over 8 of the last 10
 god damn who are you getting your lines from bud?"

Dude, I hate to pee in your cheerios, but you're simply dead wrong. 

Houstons L5: 

Charlotte: Total 224.5, actual score: 202. 
Orlando: Total 223.5, actual score: 133, 
Chicago: Total 222, actual score at the end of regulation: 216 
Atlanta: Total 225.5 actual score: 221
Sacramento: Total 225.5 actual score: 198
Indiana: Total 229, actual score: 221

So there you are, in regulation the Rockets are Under in 5 of their last 6, if you want to count Overtime, which most people who bet Totals like to take out of their numbers, they are still 4-2 towards the Under in their last 6. 

And I'm not the OP, I am over 65% for the entire season. Still, I think that he is on the right track. 



 
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Posted: #66
Yeah anyways nice to know you have enough time for all that
but not for your picks
0-4 
and my three i posted
3-0
nice stats. 
 
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Posted: #67
Actually I was on the GS/OKC Over. But it's all good, I lost my Rockets play, you won. Congrats. I was 2-2 on the night, not 0-4. 
 
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Posted: #68
Yeah i was just playing .nice plays everyone has there own ways to do these things. keep posting i always do overs. will be interested to see.
 
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Posted: #69
For sure, I'm down for banter because it allows us to see what each other are thinking. Thanks for your insight and congrats on 3-0, feels great. 
 
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Posted: #70

Hi guys,

I'm a french newbie in betting and I'm interested in betting U/O. I've been following this thread for some days now. Great thanks for your Picks !!!

In order to develop a excel model on U/O, I've been studying statistics for about 1 week now. Working hard on it ;)

If you don't mind I would like to ask you guys some questions.

1/ Would you be UP in pre-match O/U betting with poor odds we have in France since regulation ? The cut is generally around 1.75. Do your models remain winner ones with this odds ?

2/ I don't know if some bookers on the .com also have the same betting system but in France on Winamax, we have other choices than the simple cut. Here's a idea for the today Knicks-Spurs match.

https://www.winamax.fr/paris-sportifs#!/match/prelive/9955437 (sorry i would like to post a screenshot but I don't know how to do that)

Would you have adjustements of your strategy with these additional choices ? For example, if a under is not ok at the cut with your systems, could that winamax betting offer change a "no ok" bet @cut into a "ok" bet @cut+4 or cut+6 ?

Yesterday i read your picks @ 231.5  but I took the under 235.5 @1.6 for Phoenix-Houston and the total was 235 ;)

Many thanks guys and sorry for my poor english language level ;)

 
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Posted: #71
ouch, I forgot a question :

3/ I'm about buying data from BigDataBall.com
Would you have better data sources to suggest ?

Again, many thanks guys 
 
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Posted: #72
1W, 3L last night
15W, 18L since first post

Feb 12:
Chicago Bulls v. Minnesota Timberwolves  -   Over  208
Detroit Pistons v. Toronto Raptors  -   Over  211.5
 
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Posted: #73
gl like  det over
 
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Posted: #74
0W, 2L last night
15W, 20 L since first post

Feb 13:
Memphis Grizzlies v. Brooklyn Nets  -   Under  209.5

Boston Celtics v. Dallas Mavericks  -   Over  208.5

Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets  -   Under  239

San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers  -   Over  207

Orlando Magic v. Miami Heat  -   Over  208

New Orleans Pelicans v. Phoenix Suns  -   Under  219

Atlanta Hawks v. Portland Trail Blazers  -   Under  217

Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz  -   Over  206.5
 
 
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Posted: #75
5 W, 3 L Last Night
20 W, 23 L since first post

Quote Originally Posted by AndrewWins:

 
Feb 13:
Memphis Grizzlies v. Brooklyn Nets  -   Under  209.5 LOSS

Boston Celtics v. Dallas Mavericks  -   Over  208.5 WIN

Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets  -   Under  239 LOSS

San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers  -   Over  207 WIN

Orlando Magic v. Miami Heat  -   Over  208 WIN

New Orleans Pelicans v. Phoenix Suns  -   Under  219  WIN

Atlanta Hawks v. Portland Trail Blazers  -   Under  217 WIN

Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz  -   Over  206.5 LOSS
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