NBA Player Props 1/4

POR Ayton o22.5 PRA -139 PB

IND Siakam o28.5 PRA + MIL ML -114 BV

DEN Jokic u54.5 PRA -137 PB

MIN McDaniels u11.5 P -130 PB

SZN: 283-199 | +31.89u | +6.62% ROI

@D-Town

Hook Study results from season wagers

Prop Line W L Total % of Wagers

>15 17 18 35 7.26%

>20 13 13 26 5.39%

>25 7 10 17 3.53%

>30 6 8 14 2.90%

>35 4 4 8 1.66%

>40 2 1 3 0.62%

Prop Type W L Total Prop % of Wagers

P 9 7 155 10.32%

PRA 13 15 267 10.49%

R 2 4 31 19.35%

A 0 1 1 100.00%

PA 0 0 9 0.00%

PR 0 1 11 9.09%

@emoltzan

 Nice work

at -115/1.87 odds you need to win 54 outta 100 for profit

87×54 wins=4698

100x46 losses=4600

At -145/1.69 odds you need to win 60 outta 100 for profit

69x60 wins =4140

100×40 losses=4000

So you need 6 more wins per 100 plays in the exact example of buying from -115 to -145

By the looks of those numbers it looks like buying hook when the P, PA, PR or PRA is under 20. Which makes sense as the numbers have a higher % value at those lowest numbers 

The problem is can you accurately predict which of those plays you need to buy hook. Or do you just buy the hook on every play and require a 60% win rate as opposed to 54%

GL today e

MIL Giannis o28.5 P -150 BV

I haven't digested everything yet and also I have another 450 plays from last year I can grade if I chose too, we'll see. It was very tedious, all manual labor reviewing box scores. 

I think a quick conclusion is lines over 35, no reason to pay vig for 1.0 better. If you're getting -130 or better then play the 1.0, but if you're getting more than -130 vig you may want to take the -115 line. Also I then don't have to worry about parlays which I hate playing. Nothing worse than a -700 moneyline chalking your play you just wanted less vig on. We can even take this percentage lower as bad hooks don't help us but good hooks do. This isn't a huge surprise as I figured lines under 20 or 15 would prove to be worthwhile to pay the vig, especially rebounds. 

You were actually the one that motivated me to do this study 

I may pick away at last seasons 450 wagers to get an official sample size of about 1000 wagers. 

Either way, will spend more time digesting this and couple examples today already 

Siakam 28.5 -150

Siakam 29.5 -113

Giannis 28.5 -150

Giannis 29.5 -118

These ones you could safely play the bump I would conclude from a surface level. 

@emoltzan

 Ya no worries, we all need motivation 

Plus I want us all to keep profit as high as possible 

On your giannis line you are basically buying a missed FT

And yes anytime the number is under 20 the hook is basically guaranteed to come into play more often

A star player can range from 15-45 points a night

A mid-level starter basically falls into a 8-24 point range...where anything over that is a career night 

So your star has a 30 point range where buying 1 point gives you a 3.3% edge on that range

A mid-level starter has a 16 point range where buying 1 point gives you a 6% edge on that range

And then you have to gamble that you will buy the hook on the right plays (the play you buy on actually comes down to the hook)

Yeah I feel both Siakam and Giannis or playable at the 29.5 line. 

On another note I'm looking to add Fliff to my arsenal, so far almost all of my posted plays have better odds on Fliff, which then justifies the 1.0 buy. Siakam -130 and Giannis -135 both at 28.5, that's definitely worth buying the 1.0 at those numbers. 

@emoltzan

 Keep rolling 

Will do, thanks! 

NYK Hart u31.5 PRA -150 BV

MEM Bane u33.5 PRA -137 PB

ATL Daniels u20.5 PRA -137 PB

Hart 

Giannis

Siakam

These would be the experimental bump plays. I recorded their bumped odds to see how it would play out. 

Nice analysis and run 

Yessir. Curious to see how it plays out 100-1000 plays

GL with it

Yep, I'll analyze my plays from last year too so will have about 1000 plays to look at. Might take a week or so as I won't do it all in 1 day this time, very tedious. 

My fav part would be getting rid of the parlays lol. Not something I'm an advocate of at all. 

Thanks F! 

@dubz4dummyz

 I would love to buy hooks if D.K. allowed it for these unders. They Only allow hooks bought for totals & spreads. 

We're not talking about literally buying them as no books that I know of allow that. We're talking about using multiple books and playing the 1.0 higher/lower line with more vig. 

Like I had access to Giannis 28.5 and 29.5 between 3 books. 

DEN Westbrook u26.5 PRA -132 PB

Bol brother 

Same to you, thanks! 

POR Avdija o24.5 PRA -150 BV

Thanks for the plays, I’m on most of these but I gotta sign up at more books. The FD lines are almost always 1 or 2 off the posted plays, so I am proceeding at my own risk! 

Not to mention that FD doesn’t offer PRA for many players, like Ayton for example, like how do you not offer a line for his PRA? A bit baffling