NBA PLAYOFF TIME .................................................2024

@theclaw

 Cav in a blowout fashion 

@theclaw

 GL   

@kcblitzkrieg.....................................

 @MrFreedo........................................

 @Brocknroll....................................

@Wikary..........................

@CALB..............................

0-1ATS, lost 1.1 units

playoffs to date--- 0-2 ATS, lost 2.2 units

always nice to get off to a good start but we'll bounce back.

Magic playing very well. Game 6 Magic -4, game 3 & 4 line was -2.5 to -3 so getting a little more value. I'll be on the Cavs again. Let's watch the line, hopefully it moves higher, if I   see it move lower I'll jump on it quick.

Not surprised to see 76ers win, with Knicks being a weak no. 2seed. I thought 76ers had a good shot to win series but that game 2 loss was brutual.

My lines ......................................

Clippers -6.34 over Mavs , with Kawhi playing.

Kawhi is not worth all those points, my lines likes the Clippers. But with series tied 2-2 most likely the team who's going to win this series will win game 5.  With Kawhi playing the entire series and healthy I definitely take Clippers, but with Kawhi in and out of line-up to much to assume how he might play. Just because they lost the games he played don't mean much, they could easily win the next game he plays but to much quess-work for me.

If Mavs win then always some chance Clippers could cover the + 3, but 3 doesn't give alot of room for that to happen, so I will pass and look for better opportunities down the road.

Celtics in a close-out game, teams ahead are 2-1 ATS so far in close-out games. Celtics off 2 SU & ATS wins, not a bad spot but not a good spot either. If the Celtics get a big blowout win they will go into regression themselves and be off 3 ATS wins, not a good spot. Some of the biggest upsets based on the line have come in this very spot for the better teams in the playoffs. And THE Celtics could be huge favs game 1 and 2 next round.

I'd look for Celtics to win SU. Some talk of Heat being 6-3 SU in Boston or whatever it is and Heat already winning 1 game in Boston this series will only motivate this Celtics team, Celtics should slam the door on the Heat tonight. 

For the record, I did not count the Pacers close-out game, only the strong teams which the Celtics certainly are. 

Kawhi already ruled out game 5. 

......................tough break for Clippers

Cavs +4 over Magic --- 1.1 units

Magic off 3 ATS wins, not a good spot. And Magic off a 38 big blowout game and a 23 pt win at home, not a good spot back at home. I look for Cavs to win SU, I'd take the ML if Magic had won game 5 SU.

Celtics off a monster big win at home to closeout the series over Heat. Puts them in regression territory, Id look for Celtics to lose one of the first 2 home games SU.

Sat ..........................................................my lines

Nuggets -2.15 over Twolves

Based on my lines the play appears to be on Twolves but Nuggets off 2 ATS losses while Twolves off 4 ATS wins with a big blowout 25 pt win . Very good spot for the Nuggets. And Twolves are playing on an unsustainable level and due for a fall.

Ant is all the rage after round 1, his 27.8 player efficiency rating in round 1 sure looks good but his regular season PER was only 19.7, that is a good solid player but nothing special.. He shot 43.8% on 3's and 56% on 2's, of course he will look good if he can continue this. But his regular season is 35.7% on 3's and 51.5% on 2's.

Whether he can continue at this level is not likely, he is most certainly going to have some lesser games. But a young guy talking trash may not be the best thing for him if he some not so good games early in the series.

I see a number of guys liking Twolves on you tube, from the things they say they seem to be over-reacting to Ant and Twolves play in round 1. I like the Nuggets early in this series but I do give the Twolves a good shot to win the series. If I am right and Twolves regress early I may back Twolves to win series if we get better price.

@theclaw

 4 ATS wins = Magic fade?

Thanks for all your insight. 

0-1 ATS, lost 1.1 units

playoffs--- 0-3 , lost3.3 units

Unreal Magic keep rolling, I'll stay the course with the info

According to my lines looks like Twolves should be the play, the value will definitely be on the Twolves this series but game one I like Nuggets.

With Twolves off 4 ATS wins and Nuggets off 2 ATS losses and the Twolves being in regression playing on an unsustainable level of play.

Nuggets -4.5 (-105) over Twolves --- 1.05 units

Cavs -3.5 over Magic --- 1.1 units 

Mavs +3.5 over OKC --- 1.1 units

with OKC in regression mode.

Adding 1 additional unit ............

Nuggets -4 (-115) over Twolves --- 1.05 units

GL on your plays  theclaw 

1-1 ATS, lost 1.15 units

playoffs --- 1-4 ATS, lost 4.45 units

Tough start, but we got the win with Cavs, hopefully a win with Mavs tonight .

I was thinking why my regression indicators were not working they way they should. You can learn alot from losses and be better in the future in these situations. The one thing both Magic and Twolves have in common is they are both dogs in the series. I don't recall any teams that qualify being a dog in the series. Generally teams are the better teams playing weaker teams and being good size favs with lots of room to win and not cover. And regression to some degree counts on a team becoming complacent after big dominating wins thinking they only need to show-up to beat much easier opp.

This definitely does not fit the Twolves or Magic. They can not afford to get complacent. 

A game that does fit regression is Celtics playing Cavs, this is the typical regression game I've seen over the years. Better team, big fav, lots of room to win but not cover. But history don't look so good with teams off a 7 game series playing a championship caliber team in game 1. 

@theclaw

 man you sure are wrong. This Mavs defense is lockdown…

MY LINES .......................................................

Celtics -11.68 over Cavs

OKC -9.4 over Mavs

Celtics off 3 ATS wins and a 34 pt blowout win with a 20 pt win as well. Very bad spot for C's. But Cavs off a 7 game series playing a team with all the common denominators of past champs, these games are mostly blowouts in game 1, 20 pt wins or more. Bad spot for Cavs.

Generally regression rules over all else, I don't recall running into this situation before but I only learn the 7 game series trend maybe 4 or 5 years ago. I'd hate to miss a very good regression spot fading Celtics.

I'll make a play on Cavs and up the play game 2 if needed including the ML. 

With OKC in regression I'll take Mavs and again up my play if we lose. OKC is the fav here but not a large line so we don't have alot of room if OKC wins to cover.

According to my lines all the value this series will be on OKC. I did point out the same thing with Twolves and my lines was right on the money thus far but like I said regression over-rides everything else. I always play regression when it comes.

Regression works like this, 1st game is highest probability to win ATS, if lose the 1st game the 2cd game is very, very high probability to win, so we have this potential on both these teams if we lose both games.

These 1st 2 games will be very interesting to test my thoughts on regression that when team in regression is the fav in series it has worked very well and specially on a team like Celtics, big fav in series, big fav on line. 

Mavs is not really a dog for the series. The price different is really for the home field advantage

Mavs +103

OKC -123

Mav is dog playing away but will be fav @ home

I could be wrong, sometimes teams do make nice improvements in season and that angle does work sometimes. 

Even if Mavs have improved I doubt they improved by 6 pts, I have never seen a team improve by that much in season. I think OKC wins the series but I'd take Mavs in game 1 and maybe game 2, if series is tied 1-1 I make a play on OKC to win series.

Yes, that is a little concerning but I'll stay with the info because this is not the same situations as Magic and Twolves but it is close which may indicator OKC will not regress.

I never like these situations because I haven't seen them before, it is always a little risky.