Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Not a lotta examples of road teams winning Game 4 to stave off elimination. Last year the Celtics did this, and then they won Game 5 at home over the Heat by 13 points.
What makes everything work is my lines need to be on the team in each spot.
Which is telling us the better team as measured by advanced metrics is a good value.
There could be teams in these spots that lose but my lines is not on those teams.
No, the 7-0 is when my line is on the team in this spot.
My Line was not on those teams, well at least not between 2007 to 2016, there may be games that could of lost in 2017 to 2023, I really need to update the Info.
But I've been doing this long enough to know once a trend is set it generally will continue.
But I doubt it will be undefeated forever that would be impossible. All info regresses at some point when the record becomes very strong but then will win again after a period of failure.
2022 PR I ..............
Warriors - 6.59
Mavs 2.78
Game 5 at Golden st when the info would apply........
My Line Warriors by 7.8
Actual line Warriors by only -7
My Line favors Warriors not Mavs
Thanks for posting, I'll get the other games.
that Game does not fit the method
Thanks for pointing this out Bator......
2023 PR I ...........
Nuggets 3.69
Twolves .51
Game 5 in Denver .....
My Line--- Nuggets-7.18 over Twolves
Actual line, you can check line right here at covers Nuggets -10, therefore I'd have a play using the method on twolves ,
Actual score 112-109
The method won ATS in this game
Method now goes to 8-0 ATS
I don't have 2018 or I put it in a different folder which I do sometimes but I will try to find it since you did a good job finding this situation for me.
2017, I kind of inew without looking this game was not going to apply as Warriors with KD were historically great.
2017 PR I ............
Warriors 11.6
Cavs 3.05
Game 5 in GS...... my Line Wartiors -12.55
Actual line Warriors -9.5 according to covers, maybe u could of gotten -9 but maybe not.
Score Warriors won by 9, my method had no play as to have a play my Line needed to favor Cavs
but the spot did win ATS
I don't have the first round but I get get the PR's and results to see if this method has pick up a loss yet.
I kind of knew this game would fit the method, Heat were not good according to my PR
PR I .........
Celtics 5.94
Heat (-1.49)
Game 5 in Boston, my Line, Celtics -11.43
Actual line according to covers C's - 8.5, I had the line-8
C's by 110 - 97
Method now goes to 9-0 ATS
Thanks again Bator for pointing out the games in this spot
I'll try to find the other games. Now I'm so curious
Wait a minute, these games nay not apply, the methos is for the Conference Finals only.
Not in the other rounds.
The reason it works there is because the team good enough to reach that point are not going down easily. These are different animals to teams that lose in the first and 2cd round. That's what makes everything work along with MY LINES backing the team in this spot.
I never did any research in the other rounds including the finals but it did work in the one finals game but I wouldn't count on that 1 game as evidence.
2018 was a first-round game, does not apply
2017 finals game does not apply.
This game does apply, in the conference final with C's getting the win.................................. method is 8-0 ATS
the other ATS win was in 1st round, does not apply
Only 2 games would apply, being in Conference Finals
Celtics VS Heat last year which method won
And Warriors VS Mavs which my line was on Warriors but the spot was on Mavs makes this game a no play.
I had the line Warriors -7, covers has the line Warriors -6.5 which makes it a bigger difference to my line, Warriors -7.18
Thanks again Bator, you made my job much easier.
The thing is this is the kind of spot will not come up very often so it is going to be a small sample of games, nothing you can really do about that. But I've been doing this kind of stuff for a long time that small samples don't necessarily scare me, if the info is based on good solid handicapping principles with advanced metrics I will trust and believe in it. I don't let a loss or 2 or 3 scare me off either as I know good will not be 100% correct, I don't expect it to be 100% I only try to put the probabilities in my favor the best I can knowing it will bounce back at some point.
The one thing really motivates me to do this kind of research is, I love to know things like different spots, different info that the Analyst or not many others for that matter would know, I think you can get great value in these kinds of situations.
I want to look up 2018 although it was the first round and does not apply.
PR I .................................
Warriors 8.62
Spurs 2.32
game 5 at GS .............My Line GS -10.3
Actual line, I have it GS -10.5 and -11, closes -11, covers has closing line -11, so my line does favor the Spurs but technically would not be a play as I need at least a 1 pt diff.
GS won 99-91 with Spurs ATS winners, interesting that the method did WIN ATS with my line favoring the Spurs.
Some day soon hopefully I'll have time to do a similar thing for the 2cd round with different spots and my lines on the same team. And the 1st round as well.
I already have the Finals, basically every game of the Finals but my line needs to be on the team.
The method..... trailing by 2 games or more then off a SU & ATS win and my line has a 1 pt diff goes to 8-1 ATS.
Realistically it is not going to be undefeated forever. But it still remains a great spot. Not sure how that works in the finals, but I'll have info for the finals games.
It did seem to somewhat work in the other rounds beside conference finals.
Established in 1995,
so throw that 7-0 out the window?
on your play tonight, much respect mah man 
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