NBA PLAYOFF TIME..............................2022 STYLE

 Suns -5.5 over Mavs --- 2.2 units[/Quote]

Very Nice !!! 

Congratulations !!!

1-0 ATS, won 2 units

playoffs to date --- 1-2 ATS, lost .2 units

@Force

MY LINES........................................

Celtics -7.55 over Bucks

Grizz -1.23 over Warriors

Celtics off SU and ATS loss, Bucks off 4 ATS wins, Celtics trail in series and at home,  very strong spot for Celtics. Play is on the Celtics

Warriors off 3 ATS losses very good spot for Warriors, BUT Grizz off SU & ATS loss at home and trail in series playing at home, very good spot for Grizz.

Celtics -4.5 over Bucks --- 2.2 units

Celtics to win series over Bucks +105 --- 1 unit to win 1.05 units

pending play............ Celtics to win series over Bucks -205 --- 2.05 units to win 1 unit

The grizz covered game 1

@linewatcher

 Yes you are right. They are off a home SU lose playing at home which is a very good spot.

They are off 2 ATS wins which isn't a good or bad spot.

@MrBator

 I looked up last few games and only 2 games starters didn't play, Suns were not blown-out of either game.

They lost by 7 and by 4,.that won't even move the ratings maybe one tenth of a point

@theclaw

 How do your lines change with smart out? 

@MrBator

 jesus so 3 super teams.....i mean the suns are good, but those are some all-time teams

no MJ or Kobe/Shaq

right now its between bucks, suns and warriors for the title imo

maybe the grizz surprise the warriors but the G1 loss was not helpful

@dubz4dummyz

 You forgot about the heat, and let me give you a tip they will be the winner at the end of the dance.

1-0 ATS, won 2 units

playoffs to date --- 2-2, won 1.8 units

Complete reversal of game 1 with Celtics shooting lights-out on 3's ay 46% and Bucks dreadful 17%. 

MY LINES..................................

Heat -5.73

Suns -7.93

Heat off 1 ATS win, 76ers off 1 ATS loss, not any bad spots but without Embiid seems likely Heat going up 2-0.

Suns off 3 ATS wins bad spot for the Suns, Mavs off 1 ATS loss and trail in the series, better spot for the Mavs, but with my lines well on the side of the Suns will pass on this game.

@Godofgamblers88

 not sold on the heat, not enough scoring depth IMO

MY LINES..................................game 3's

Celtics -.55 over Bucks

Warriors -5.77 over Grizz

Celtics off 1 ATS win, Bucks off 1 ATS loss, not a good or bad spot for either team.  The eventual series winner at some point will win at least 2 straight ATS, clearly Celtics should be series winner based on both PR's. Game 3' with series tied 1-1  we don't use my lines but rather back the team to win series. Spot favors the Celtics. 

Warriors off 4 ATS losses, very good spot for Warriors, Grizz off 3 ATS wins, very bad spot for Grizz.  Game 3 with series tied 1-1 we don'y use my lines, we back team to win series, we have to respect PR II which has Grizz no. 1 and better then the Warriors. But Warriors far better in PR I BY 2.27 pts and Grizz better in PR II by less then 1 pt, being over 1 pt is key. Warriors the better overall team and better in the all-important shooting efficiency by a landslide. Spot favors the Warriors here tonight.

Celtics +3 over Bucks --- 2.2 units

Warriors -6.5 over Grizz --- 2.2 units 

My 2 cents...I think there is a lot of validity to this stat.  I think the best team almost always wins in the NBA because it is 7 games and 100 possessions per game, so it only comes down to luck if the teams are very evenly matched. (unlike hockey back when the games were all low scoring and one lucky bounce usually decided a game )

One difference between now and before 2010 or so is that teams stopped trying to win every game.  One of these low 50s win teams would/should/could have won another 5 games this year if they never rested starters. 

[Quote: Originally Posted by theclaw]MY LINES..................................   Heat -5.73 Suns -7.93   Heat off 1 ATS win, 76ers off 1 ATS loss, not any bad spots but without Embiid seems likely Heat going up 2-0. 

Nice Work !!! 

The Suns overcame more than a few bad spots this season with dominating wins. They were in a very bad scheduling spot on January 17th when they visited the Spurs on MLK Day. I felt smart that morning as I loaded up on the Spurs +4.5, moneyline +175, and the 1st half moneyline +145 (all beautiful lines). Then the game was played. That was the night I fuc.ked around and found out. 

While watching the final minutes of my large losing play, I decided to bet on the Suns to win the championship, and I never even look at futures odds. Two days later I bet the Suns +800.

@MrBator

 That's the regular season where teams do string more games together ATS, but playoffs it's far less likely to happen.

Suns with best record will be priced like a team with best record.

You are letting the wrong information cloud your judgement of the Suns. Not saying the information is bad it is not the best information to use.

Suns are a good team no doubt and they certainly could win the title but they are not any kind of juggernaut team that would easily win the title.

Celtics are a better team and could beat them , even should be favored to beat them .

Warriors could beat them but should not be favored to beat them but could hang with them with a chance win series.

@Force

Their 6-2 ATS record so far in the playoffs strongly indicates that the Suns are not being priced like a team with the best record.   

I don't think my own eyes are the wrong information. I put more value on that than any stats I found (though I like those stats a lot).

That is precisely what I think they are, and I've held strong to that belief every day since the Suns emptied my pocket on January 17th. It's okay if we disagree on that.  

Really? You'd make the Celtics a favorite in a Suns-Celtics NBA Finals with the Suns having homecourt advantage? A 51-win team over a 64-win team? Are you sure I'm the one who's letting the wrong information cloud my judgment?

wait so your chasing the suns because they emptied your pockets 4 months ago????

they are still +200, +800 4 months ago aint that great of value for all the potential problems you could have endured along the way to the playoffs, hell they arent even in the finals yet, but look likely to end up there

you could have wagered 4x the amount now and saved a bunch of potential downfalls, luckily for you things have gone according to plan for the suns for the most part

it seems you have made a decision based on a result from months ago

and they are the favourite so its not as if you are out on some limb with the wager

all that said, it is the suns to lose this year 

sorry to clog up your thread claw! great insight with your numbers