NBA PLAYOFF TIME..............................2022 STYLE

NBA FINALS...............................................2022

Power Rating I.......

Celtics 7.43............. Celtics by .85

Warriors 6.58

with a 1.25 difference --- 24-6 at winning the series since 1980 (80%) ....... 6-3 since 2010..... 9-3 since 2005 (75%)

Celtics don't meet the minimum of 1.25

Power Rating II...............

Celtics 54.21............Celtics by .53

Warriors 53.68

teams with a .75 difference are 28-7 since 1980 (80%)......... 8-3 since 2010 .....11-4 since 2005 (73.3%)

Celtics don't meet the minimum of .75

PLAYOFF ONLY POWER RATING I............

Celtics 6.09..........Celtics by 1.62

Warriors 4.47

POWER RATING II..........

Celtics 52.48...........Celtics by .12

Warriors 52.36

This is only the 3rd time since 1980 that a team has not met the minimum in either regular season  Power Rating with the same team being better in both PR's.

0-2 at winning the series of the previous 2 times it happened. Small sample size for sure. I suspect having followed this type of info for many years that the results over time will be roughly 50% since the 2 teams are more evenly matched it only makes sense in these cases the result would be even and that is how it has worked-out in other similar situations.

In both losses the team better in regular season PR's was  not better in  playoff only PR, the better playoff PR  won the series. This year the Celtics are better in both regular season and playoff only, Celtics should be the right play to win the series.

MY LINES NBA FINALS VERSION.........................game 2

Warriors -5.15 over Celtics

In game 2's my lines with a 1 pt difference to closing line is 13-7 ATS since 1991

Interesting that my lines was against MJ & Bulls IN 5 of their 6 NBA finals appearances in game 2'S and went 2-3 ATS in those 5 games. Not bad considering that's the GOAT who was off-the-hook in the finals. In the other other Bulls game my line was on the Bulls in game 2 but  only by .78 and won.

So in all other game 2's my lines with a 1 pt diff  is 11-4 ATS.

@theclaw

GS is now -4.5 at Heritage which make GS more risky.

I have run a lot of game #2 queries and haven't come up with much worth posting or acting on.  Good luck with GS and nice work getting GS -3.5 early.

Do you expect a strong DEF from GS?  They have had 3 straight poor DEF efforts and analysts have speculated that Klay Thompson is no longer a supreme defender since his injury.  Looking at NBA.com I sorted the team playoff stats and BOS was #2 and GS was #8 in DEF rtg.  While GS had the same 6 edge of #1 vs #7 in OFF rtg,  BOS had a big net edge (7.1 vs 4.0).  Of course that edge was boosted by series game #1.

Thanks for the info.

Yes I would expect a much better defensive effort from Warriors, Celtics very likely won't be shooting over 50% on 3's in game 2. The analysts rarely understand regression so when they see poor performances they think it has to do with lack of skill when many times it is simple regression to the mean.

Then when they are wrong they say, oh my these games are hard tp predict. They try to make common sense out of things  instead of using math, of course that makes better TV though which is their only goal.

Just yesterday I was looking into a regression method to determine team points, this game is close to qualifying taking Celtics TT UNDER. But it is still early in my research  so I wouldn't be taking any action on this.

And remember the Celtics needed to fight back down 2-1 to Heat, they won 3 of next 4 games including a game 7 on the road then won game 1 on the road winning 4 of 5 games, just don't think they can match the Warriors intensity in this game after that stretch of pressure  games since they got what they wanted a split on the road and the lead in series finally.

using my method for shooting efficiency.....since 1980

 the better defensive team by 1% is 14-3 at winning the series in Finals.

better offensive team by 1% is 16-13.......wow look at the difference

better reb by 1% is 14-4

better  shooting efficiency margin by 1% is 17-4

better in PR II by the minimum of .75 and better by 1% margin in shooting efficiency is 14-2 at winning the series.

the real kiss of death is being .5% better on off and .5 worse reb........2-10

none of these apply however this season.

last season we did have Bucks better by well over 1% in rebs.

Celtics though were 3.57% better defensively in the playoffs but only .3 better in regular season

Celtics were better offensively in regular season by .33 but Warriors better in playoffs by 1.66

I use 2 pt shots, 3 pt shots, free throws and turnover to figure shooting efficiency for both off and def. 3 pt shot made  counts for 1.5 baskets made to give them the full value while FT's made count as .5 basket made. 2 pt shots made  count as 1 basket made.

I use TO where I don't think any other PR does that but I think TO's are the product of trying to create higher % shots.

I do favor the under.  While I couldn't come up with a query to confirm it, I expect a positive regression from GS's DEF after 3 straight poor efforts wherein their opponents probably exceeded their team totals by (most recent first) roughly 15, 6 and 11 points.

@theclaw

 Good luck.  I did take under 215 for a half unit.

Looking good so far at halftime. Celtics even shot over 50% on 3's, don't think that continues 2cd half.

Celtics scored 6 pts halfway through the 3rd quarter, yikes.

You better recalibrate. This series is just beginning. 

@theclaw

 You’ve done a good job during this playoffs , trust your pick

keep it going 

Congratulations to you and your many tailers, TC.

History sided with Warriors game 2 , history also sides with Celtics taking a 3-1 lead.

Nice hit on the under, the beauty of the play was the outcome was never in doubt at any point.

Did you post about this history that sides with C's taking 3-1 lead? If so, where? Just curious. Thanks 
By the way, stay hot 

No but I did post Celtics winning series 4-2.

It could go 2-2 and Celtics win the next 2 but more likely result based on history is Celtics hold home court and take a 3-1 lead.

This will not age well. 

I have repeatedly said "Injuries are bullshxt" in multiple NFL threads.  TC, I'd like your opinion about the potential absense of Robert Williams III.  Despite my IAB theory, RWIII played only 14 minutes in game #2 and GS had a huge edge in points in the paint.

You don’t need TC to tell you the obvious. Celtics not the same without him. Why do you think they are for forcing him to play through injury. If he is out or injured the Warriors will be able to get in the paint. Maybe not as much as against Dallas, but enough to tilt the series in their favor. 

@begginerboy

 Thanks.

For those of you who may not know, MEM was 20-5 SU without Ja Morant.

IAB.

Williams had the best player efficiency rating on the Celtics. Doesn't make him the best overall player as he benefits from Brown and Tatum, but he contributes the most per minute of any player could replace him. A lot depends on what the Celtics need in a given game, he won't give you big offense.

With Williams certainly makes it easier for Celtics to win the series, but they can win  without him but I'd think the probabilty would be lower.