MY LINES.............................................game 5
Warriors -7.8 over Mavs
Warriors off 1 ATS loss, not a good or bad spot. Warriors in a 2cd closeout game, good spot to back the Warriors, but with the Warriors playing so well at home may not be sustainable to cover at such a high rate, 4-1 ATS last 5 and my line doesn't have them by much over the actual line, I will pass on the game but fully expect the Warriors to win SU especially with the Celtics possibly wrapping up the series tomorrow Warriors should be fully engaged in this game to close-out the series.
2
MY LINES.............................................game 5
Warriors -7.8 over Mavs
Warriors off 1 ATS loss, not a good or bad spot. Warriors in a 2cd closeout game, good spot to back the Warriors, but with the Warriors playing so well at home may not be sustainable to cover at such a high rate, 4-1 ATS last 5 and my line doesn't have them by much over the actual line, I will pass on the game but fully expect the Warriors to win SU especially with the Celtics possibly wrapping up the series tomorrow Warriors should be fully engaged in this game to close-out the series.
MY LINE .......................................game 6
Celtics -6.77 over Heat
Celtic off 2 ATS win, not the best of spots but not the worst either. More importantly is Celtic being the better team in a game 6 close-out, teams know they don't want a game 7 as anything can happen, any player could get hot. Will pass on the game but Fully expect the Celtics to wrap up the series tonight. But with 2 futures on Celtics to win the series no point laying pts at this time.
Celtics to win series over Heat -170 --- 1.7 units to win 1 unit
Celtics to win series after game 1 loss +1.15 --- 1 unit to win 1.15 units
MY LINES ......................................... game 1 look ahead
Warriors -3.15 over Celtics
1
MY LINE .......................................game 6
Celtics -6.77 over Heat
Celtic off 2 ATS win, not the best of spots but not the worst either. More importantly is Celtic being the better team in a game 6 close-out, teams know they don't want a game 7 as anything can happen, any player could get hot. Will pass on the game but Fully expect the Celtics to wrap up the series tonight. But with 2 futures on Celtics to win the series no point laying pts at this time.
Celtics to win series over Heat -170 --- 1.7 units to win 1 unit
Celtics to win series after game 1 loss +1.15 --- 1 unit to win 1.15 units
MY LINES ......................................... game 1 look ahead
MY LINES ..............................................game 7
Heat -1.23 over Celtics
Heat off 1 ATS win with Celtics off 1 ATS loss, not good or bad spots for either team. Celtics being the best team in both PR's and Celtics with the common denominators of past champs VS the Heat without those common denominators, the only way I could go is on the Celtics.
Celtics games past 2 rounds the road team is 8-5 SU, no reason the road team can't win this game just because it is game 7 and history points to the home team in these spots. Road team is 10-7 SU in all Celtics playoff games.
I fully expect the Celtics to win SU in this game 7 . But I will pass with 2 futures on Celtics to win the series.
pending futures......................
Celtics to win series over Heat --- 1.7 units to win 1 unit
Celtics to win series +1.15 after game 1 loss --- 1 unit to win 1.15 units
1
MY LINES ..............................................game 7
Heat -1.23 over Celtics
Heat off 1 ATS win with Celtics off 1 ATS loss, not good or bad spots for either team. Celtics being the best team in both PR's and Celtics with the common denominators of past champs VS the Heat without those common denominators, the only way I could go is on the Celtics.
Celtics games past 2 rounds the road team is 8-5 SU, no reason the road team can't win this game just because it is game 7 and history points to the home team in these spots. Road team is 10-7 SU in all Celtics playoff games.
I fully expect the Celtics to win SU in this game 7 . But I will pass with 2 futures on Celtics to win the series.
pending futures......................
Celtics to win series over Heat --- 1.7 units to win 1 unit
Celtics to win series +1.15 after game 1 loss --- 1 unit to win 1.15 units
My Efficiency Factor stats make BOS 0.03 stronger in the regular season and an even stronger 0.06 in playoffs only stats. I took BOS +138 in the series for one unit.
The home field advantage is overvalued. If any series lasts 4 or 6 games, there is no HFA. If it goes 5 games, one team clearly dominated and they almost certainly would have prevailed in all neutral court games. If it goes 7, this year's HFA is only 1.77 points, and BOS has demonstrated that they can win on the road where they are 30-20 SU with a whopping avg margin of 7.42 points.
Yes, GS is 40-10 SU at home but only 25-23 on the road with a paltry avg margin of only 0.10 points. Powerhouse teams demonstrate their mettle by overcoming adversity and winning on the road.
0
My Efficiency Factor stats make BOS 0.03 stronger in the regular season and an even stronger 0.06 in playoffs only stats. I took BOS +138 in the series for one unit.
The home field advantage is overvalued. If any series lasts 4 or 6 games, there is no HFA. If it goes 5 games, one team clearly dominated and they almost certainly would have prevailed in all neutral court games. If it goes 7, this year's HFA is only 1.77 points, and BOS has demonstrated that they can win on the road where they are 30-20 SU with a whopping avg margin of 7.42 points.
Yes, GS is 40-10 SU at home but only 25-23 on the road with a paltry avg margin of only 0.10 points. Powerhouse teams demonstrate their mettle by overcoming adversity and winning on the road.
My Efficiency Factor stats make BOS 0.03 stronger in the regular season and an even stronger 0.06 in playoffs only stats. I took BOS +138 in the series for one unit. The home field advantage is overvalued. If any series lasts 4 or 6 games, there is no HFA. If it goes 5 games, one team clearly dominated and they almost certainly would have prevailed in all neutral court games. If it goes 7, this year's HFA is only 1.77 points, and BOS has demonstrated that they can win on the road where they are 30-20 SU with a whopping avg margin of 7.42 points. Yes, GS is 40-10 SU at home but only 25-23 on the road with a paltry avg margin of only 0.10 points. Powerhouse teams demonstrate their mettle by overcoming adversity and winning on the road.
I feel this wrong. So teams don't have much of a home court advantage, but other teams most certainly do. The warriors are one of the teams that do.
They had the best record at home of all playoff teams are and undefeated so far in these playoffs.
0
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
My Efficiency Factor stats make BOS 0.03 stronger in the regular season and an even stronger 0.06 in playoffs only stats. I took BOS +138 in the series for one unit. The home field advantage is overvalued. If any series lasts 4 or 6 games, there is no HFA. If it goes 5 games, one team clearly dominated and they almost certainly would have prevailed in all neutral court games. If it goes 7, this year's HFA is only 1.77 points, and BOS has demonstrated that they can win on the road where they are 30-20 SU with a whopping avg margin of 7.42 points. Yes, GS is 40-10 SU at home but only 25-23 on the road with a paltry avg margin of only 0.10 points. Powerhouse teams demonstrate their mettle by overcoming adversity and winning on the road.
I feel this wrong. So teams don't have much of a home court advantage, but other teams most certainly do. The warriors are one of the teams that do.
They had the best record at home of all playoff teams are and undefeated so far in these playoffs.
My Efficiency Factor stats make BOS 0.03 stronger in the regular season and an even stronger 0.06 in playoffs only stats. I took BOS +138 in the series for one unit. The home field advantage is overvalued. If any series lasts 4 or 6 games, there is no HFA. If it goes 5 games, one team clearly dominated and they almost certainly would have prevailed in all neutral court games. If it goes 7, this year's HFA is only 1.77 points, and BOS has demonstrated that they can win on the road where they are 30-20 SU with a whopping avg margin of 7.42 points. Yes, GS is 40-10 SU at home but only 25-23 on the road with a paltry avg margin of only 0.10 points. Powerhouse teams demonstrate their mettle by overcoming adversity and winning on the road.
Very good info Dog. I agree Celtics the better team but not by alot and I agree road record is a much better indicator of winning a series then home record just like blow-out wins is a better indicator then close wins.
Most all teams play better at home and can win at home, what really separates the best teams is winning on the road.
1
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
My Efficiency Factor stats make BOS 0.03 stronger in the regular season and an even stronger 0.06 in playoffs only stats. I took BOS +138 in the series for one unit. The home field advantage is overvalued. If any series lasts 4 or 6 games, there is no HFA. If it goes 5 games, one team clearly dominated and they almost certainly would have prevailed in all neutral court games. If it goes 7, this year's HFA is only 1.77 points, and BOS has demonstrated that they can win on the road where they are 30-20 SU with a whopping avg margin of 7.42 points. Yes, GS is 40-10 SU at home but only 25-23 on the road with a paltry avg margin of only 0.10 points. Powerhouse teams demonstrate their mettle by overcoming adversity and winning on the road.
Very good info Dog. I agree Celtics the better team but not by alot and I agree road record is a much better indicator of winning a series then home record just like blow-out wins is a better indicator then close wins.
Most all teams play better at home and can win at home, what really separates the best teams is winning on the road.
Yea you were right on the money. That was the way to play it if you want to be aggressive but I like to be conservative and stay disciplined as that saves you from bigger losses when things don't go your way which does happen.
2 different ways to play it. You'll make more being aggressive when things go well.
1
Quote Originally Posted by Seymourbukz:
Double down !!!
Yea you were right on the money. That was the way to play it if you want to be aggressive but I like to be conservative and stay disciplined as that saves you from bigger losses when things don't go your way which does happen.
2 different ways to play it. You'll make more being aggressive when things go well.
NBA FINALS........................................game 1
My Lines...................
Warriors -3.15 over Celtics
Celtics off 2 straight game 1 losses, the best team in both PR's rarely ever losses 3 straight game 1's, PLUS Celtics needed to fight back from trailing 3 times VS Bucks and twice VS Heat,. Celtics should bring a big game tonight, although they only need a split in games 1 & 2, but after trailing and fighting back Celtics win SU tonight.
Celtics to win series over Warriors 4-2 (+350) --- 1 unit
Celtics ML +145 --- 1 UNIT
2
NBA FINALS........................................game 1
My Lines...................
Warriors -3.15 over Celtics
Celtics off 2 straight game 1 losses, the best team in both PR's rarely ever losses 3 straight game 1's, PLUS Celtics needed to fight back from trailing 3 times VS Bucks and twice VS Heat,. Celtics should bring a big game tonight, although they only need a split in games 1 & 2, but after trailing and fighting back Celtics win SU tonight.
Celtics to win series over Warriors 4-2 (+350) --- 1 unit
Finals version of my lines is we give 2 additional pts to the team trailing by 1 game.
Celtics off 2 ATS wins not the best of spots but not a terrible spot either. It is very difficult to beat a good team 2 straight on the road especially VS a team with the common denominators of past champs, Celtics got what they wanted which was at least a split, after losing 2 straight game 1's and trailing in both previous series the Celtics now are in position to never trail in this series which is all they can ask for.
With my lines clearly favoring the Warriors the play is on the Warriors game 2.
Warriors -3.5 over Celtics --- 1.1 units
2
NBA FINALS...............................game 2
MY LINES.......
Warriors -5.15 over Celtics
Finals version of my lines is we give 2 additional pts to the team trailing by 1 game.
Celtics off 2 ATS wins not the best of spots but not a terrible spot either. It is very difficult to beat a good team 2 straight on the road especially VS a team with the common denominators of past champs, Celtics got what they wanted which was at least a split, after losing 2 straight game 1's and trailing in both previous series the Celtics now are in position to never trail in this series which is all they can ask for.
With my lines clearly favoring the Warriors the play is on the Warriors game 2.
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