NBA PLAYOFF TIME..............................2022 STYLE

MY LINES.......................................game 2's

Heat -1.23 over Celtics

Warriors -7.8 over Mavs

Heat off 3 ATS wins including a 35 pt big blowout win, terrible spot for the Heat.  Celtics off 1 ATS loss and with Celtics being the best team according to both PR's they are in a very good spot as the better team as the road team should split 1st 2 games on the road.  play game 2 is on the Celtics

Warriors off 2 ATS wins with 1 big blowout 25 pt win not the best of spots but not terrible either, the better teams like the Warriors can win in this spot, Mavs off 1 ATS loss and 1 big blowout loss, not a very good or bad spot  spot, Mavs could lose 2 straight and fail to cover or cover. My lines favors Warriors but I don't back teams in game 2 off a game 1 win and cover very often.  Pass on this game.  Best to wait-out this game and back the loser of game 2 in game 3.

Celtics +3.5 over Heat ---2.2 units

Celtics ML +140 --- 1 unit

Celtics to win the series over Heat +115 --- 1 unit to win 1.15 units

Do your lines factor in changes with players being out? If so, what is impact with White / Horford being out? 

No,  I try to make educated quesses when that happens but depends the player out 

Just saw Horford is cleared to play. Smart was probable so should play.

White has  no impact in my lines

MIA off 3 ATS wins in game #2 should not be a concern.  NBA home favorite playoff teams are 15-15 ATS in that spot (13-6 ATS in game #1).

BOS off a PO loss this season is 3-0 SU with a massive avg margin of 14.67 points.  MIA is 7-0 SU (avg margin 16.14 points) and 6-1 ATS (avg ATS margin 10.57 points) at home in the playoffs this season.  No edge there.

Statistically BOS does look stronger than MIA and the Efficiency Factor I use (points/FGA, OFF and DEF) gives BOS a bigger edge over MIA than GS has over DAL.

Joe Fortenbaugh is a sharp handicapper on Daily Wager.  He is one of only two (Stanford Steve is the other) DW handicappers to have a double-digit win streak with his Best Bets.  He loves BOS tonight.  He specifically mentioned BOS's many TOs in game #1 and MIA's many FTAs; he is expecting regression in both stats in favor of BOS.  However, I am fading him tonight based on this query:

PO = 1 and AD and p:TO > 14.5 and op:free throws attempted > 31.5 and series game = 2

SU:   4-21 (-13.28, 16%)

ATS:   8-17-0 (-6.40, 32%)

I took MIA -0.5/-110 in the 1Q because the avg SU margin was 6.4 points in that quarter alone.  I only risked a half unit.

Good luck everybody.

If I am going to lose a wager, it might as well be like this:  just a half unit, and I know hundreds or thousands of people tailed Joe Fortenbaugh.

Celtics rolling game 2 with a 25 pt lead at halftime.

Celtics very unlikey to lose this lead like game 1 when they played extremely well but led by a small amount.

@theclaw

 claw where you at? love following your picks.

@theclaw

lahat ng makakabasa nito na hindi ako aay hihigupin lahat ng malas ko

1-0 ATS, won 2 units

ML 1-0, won 1.4 units

playoffs to date --- 11-8 ATS, won 7 units

ML's --- 1-0 , won 1.4 units

futures --- 2-0, won 2.05 units

total --- 14-8, won 10.45 units

Celtics came out very focused game 2, they did not want to fall behind 0-2 and have to dig themselves out of a deep hole as happened VS Bucks.

MY LINES.........................................game 3's

Celtics -6.77 over Heat

Mavs -4.2 over Warriors

Celtics off 1 ATS win which was a big blowout win, not a bad spot, Celtics as the clearly better team in both PR's and with the common denominators of past champions VS an opp not off those common denominators and with a series tied 1-1, very good spot for Celtics. And with the Celtics trailing 3 times VS Bucks in the last round is more motivation for the better team to get this game. Play here is clearly on the Celtics.

Warriors off 3 ATS wins including a big blowout 25 pt win, bad spot for the Warriors. With my line clearly favoring the Mavs the play here is on the Mavs.

Celtics -6 over Heat --- 2.2 units

Mavs -2 (-115) over Warriors --- 1.15 units

will add another unit on the Mavs but let's wait out the line, seems headed down which makes sense since Warriors off 3 ATS wins and 2 double digit wins with 1 blowout  and a 9 pt win, almost 3 DD wins, public likely to over-react but I'd think the wise guys would be taking the Mavs.

Celtics down 21 end of 1st quarter

Celtics +10.5 (-125) --- 1.25 units

Celtics got the lead to 15 at half with a run to end the half.

That's big, Celtics now get in position to win SU.

1-1 ATS, lost 1.2 units

Got to give the Heat alot of credit, they came-out hungrier and their defense was off-the-hook when they needed it. Celtics closed to within 1 I thought they would more then likely win. Celtics just can't help themselves falling behind in the series yet again.  To many turnovers, Tatum acts like he is 2cd coming of Bird or Magic with all these passes that are pathetic. The Heat defense pretty much locked him down. Celtics shoulds battle-back and win the series.

I did add another unit on the Mavs -2 and posted the play but for some reason it didn't show up here. I'll take the play at -3 which is the line now.

Mavs -3 over Warriors --- 1.1 units

pending play................................. Mavs -2 (-115) over Warriors --- 1.15 units

0-1 ATS, lost 2.25 units

MY LINES.............................................game 4's

Celtics -6.77 over Heat

Mavs -.2 over Warriors

Celtics off 1 ATS loss, Heat off 1 ATS win. Teams don't win 2 straight on the road very often especially when they are playing a better team.  Celtics have to win this game to win the series, play is on the Celtics

Warriors off 4 ATS wins, very bad spot for Warriors, Mavs off 3 ATS losses, very good spot for Mavs. Closeout game for Warriors, closeouts in game 4 not a great spot. Mavs came into this series off back-to-back big blowout wins, not sustainable and they paid the price losing 3 straight SU and ATS, but after a 3rd ATS loss in these blowout situations very good spot for Mavs. Play is on the Mavs

Celtics -6 over Heat --- 2.2 units

Mavs -1  (-105)  over Warriors --- 2.1 units

we have 2 good spots in game 4, we should get at least 1 win with 2 very possible

celtics will win via blowout

lahat ng makakabasa nito kahit hindi niya naiintindihaan ay sisipsipin ang lahat ng malas ko at mapupunta sakanya

.

2-0 ATS, won 4 units

MY LINES...............................................game 5's

Heat -1.23 over Celtics

Warriors -7.8 over Mavs

Celtics off 1 ATS win not a big blowout win of 25 pts or more but still a big win. At some point the team winning the series usually wins 2 straight ATS, Celtics have that chance here. Celtics being the better team in both PR's should win the series and they should take the lead after 5 games. But the Celtics didn't do that last series, they trailed 3 times and twice this series, unconventional for sure. 

The spot favors the Celtics but the huge line adjustment is coming in on the Celtics this game with the Celtics now -2, I don't like betting into these huge line adjustments. And with 2 futures on Celtics to win the series going to pass on this game tonight, but still like the Celtics to win SU.

pending plays..............................

Celtics to win series over Heat -170 --- 1.7 units

Celtics to win series over Heat +1.15 --- 1 unit

basically if Celtics win tonight high probability I'll cash these 2 plays

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