2-0 ATS, won 4 units
playoff to date --- 5-2 ATS, won 6.8 units
on a 5-0 ATS run
Celtics got a brutal loss, Holiday makes that shot, looked like he just threw it up, off the side of rim, off the backboard and in, very fortunate bounce for Bucks putting them up 3. Celtics had a good shot at the end, I though Smart would make that shot after getting the rebound off his FT miss, just brutal.
@Jimmy_Cats
Actually that's not true, the research has been done years ago, most serious handicappers know this from my experience. Once getting to the NFC/AFC Championship game & SB, blowout wins over teams with losing records is a far, far better indicator then close wins VS teams with winning records, produces far better results backing blowout winners not close win winners.
In fact, close losses VS teams with winning records produces a better record then close wins. More teams have won SB's with lots of close losses then close wins.
Works similar in NBA.
This is a good example of why you need to do your homework and not try applying common sense.
I'll show you why the Suns are not in this class of teams............................................
92 Bulls 67 wins.....10.44 margin of victory...... BULLS 10 MORE WINS AND 3.17 PTS BETTER TOO........ .32 pt per extra win
Blazers 57 wins ... 7.27 MOV
96 Bulls 72 wins .....12.24 MOV...... 8 WINS BETTER AND 4.45 PTS BETTER TOO........... .56 pt per extra win
Supersonics 64 wins .....7.79 MOV.....
2000 Lakers ....67 wins.....8.5 MOV.....11 WINS BETTER AND 3.9 PTS BETTER TOO.......... .35 pt per extra win
Pacers .....56 wins .....4.6 MOV
In each one of these cases the team with the much better record also had the much better MOV, the MOF supports the record being so much better.
2022 Suns 64 wins........7.5 MOV.....13 WINS BETTER BUT ONLY .22 MOV BETTER........ ONLY .017 OF A PT PER EXTRA WIN, barely nothing
2022 Celtics 51 wins ......7.28 MOV
2022 Suns 64 wins.......7.5 MOV.......11 WINS BETTER BUT ONLY 1.96 PTS BETTER ............. .18 of a pt per extra win, about half of those 3 other teams, how are the Suns the same as those 3 other teams ?
2022 Warriors 53 wins 5.54 ......
Every MOV of the 3 previous teams was over 3 pts better which supports a record being so much better, but the Suns who happen to have more wins seperating them from 2cd best and 3rd best teams BUT A FAR SMALLER MOV.
There is nothing that supports the Suns being so much stronger then those 2 teams other then record, those 3 other teams every meaningful indicator supported them being far stronger, nothing supports the Suns being so much stronger. No other meaningful indicator supports the Suns being so many wins better.
And the reason for this is........................to many close wins for the Suns......................that is not meaningful or a good indicator.
This is why you have to dig much deeper then just on the surface looking at record.
MY LINES.......................................................
76ERS -1.77 over Heat
Suns -.43 over Mavs
no meaningful spots here today. I think 76ers would be THE BEST shot today to win SU & ATS , Suns likely bounce back but my line favors Mavs. 76ers are better with Harden on the team then my lines gives credit and with Heat being not a very strong no. 1 seed 76ers appear to me to be the best play today. Will pass on today's games though.
MY LINES.......................................game 4's
Celtics -.1 over Bucks
Warriors -6.27 over Grizz
Celtics off a SU loss but ATS win on opening line but not closing line. Good spot for the Celtics as the better team and needing to win 1 game on the road, they don't need 2 games just 1 to get back HC and win series.
Warriors off a monster blowout win, not a bad spot if off only 1 ATS win, warriors should win this series , if they do they need to win both home games, they should get the SU win and likely cover. At some point teams winning the series should win 2 straight ATS. This seems the best spot for that to happen.
1-1 ATS, lost .1 units
playoffs to date --- 6-3 ATS, won 6.7 units
Celtics roll the Bucks in the 4th quarter 43-28 win by 15 with the money on the line.
Warriors got the job done, didn't see the game so not sure how it ended, with a big lead that Grizz made look close or Grizz in the game down to the end.
MY LINES..........................................................
Heat - 4.86 over 76ers ....with Harden
Suns -8.43 over Mavs
76ers off 2 ATS wins not the best of spots but not a terrible spot either. My line favors the Heat but with Heat being a weaker no. 1 seed I cannot back a weaker no. 1 seed as they haven't done well, even losing to lesser teams quite often.
Suns off 2 ATS losses not a great spot but with the series on the line in this game the better team will prevail, Suns with the common denominators of past Champs playing a team without those common denominators rarely will lose the series. And with my line clearly on the Suns side , Suns roll tonight .
Suns -2 over Mavs --- 2.2 units
Warriors/Suns matchup has the look of an all-time classic NBA playoff series. Let's look at the COMBINED PR's which I use to determine the no. 1 ranked team.
1. Celtics 61.64
2. Suns 60.8
3. Warriors 60.26
Celtics better then Suns by .84
Suns better the Warriors by .54
That is not a big difference separating those teams, under 1 pt is not very meaningful.
Let's look at how many games the 5 players with the most minutes per game have played. These will be the 5 players who influence the game the most since they play the most minutes a game therefore influence the PR's as well.
1. Celtics ave per player is 68.5 games played this season
2. Suns 68
3. Warriors 58.2
Suns and Celtics are almost dead-even, but Warriors 5 players have played an ave of almost 10 few games this season per each player.
Alot depends on who missed time, well, Klay played in only 32 games, he need another 36 games to play in the same number as Booker played.
Green played only 46 games, he need another 19 games to play as many as Paul, but another 36 games to be as many as Bridges.
If we look back at Harden playing in 23 games and that raised the PR by 1.37 pts, that is one key player, now we have 2 players, one a great offensive player the other a great defensive player.
The 1.37 is in 1 PR, they would also get a rise in the other as well which combined would easily put the Warriors no. 1.
I didn't track the Warriors stats when Klay came back so I cannot run the PR doing it that way, I did have the 76ers stats when Harden was traded.
The question is, how much extra credit do we give the Warriors if any when trying to cap that series ? I've tried this in the past but not very often, but the end of season stats work the best regardless of missed time by players. But since I have very limited attempts at it, I need a larger sample so will consider the info in the Warriors/Suns series if they meet and track it in the future , maybe look into the past years and see if there is any value in looking at the PR's in this manner.
MY LINES......................................................
Celtics -8.05 over Bucks
Grizz -1.73 over Warriors
Celtics off 1 ATS win on the closing line but off 3 ATS wins on the opening line, off 3 ATS wins would not be a good spot ATS. But off 1 ATS spot is much, much better. Important thing here is with Celtics being clearly better team in both PR's and having common denominators of past champs while Bucks do not, Celtics should win this series so team to win a series will almost always lead 3-2 rather then trail 3-2, therefore they almost certainly should win SU tonight. We'll back the Celtics but back-down our play to 1 unit.
Warriors off 1 ATS lose but 1 SU win, Warriors taking a 3-1 series lead as the road team in the series not a good spot to back the Warriors. With Ja out, how many points is he worth, maybe 3 to 3.5 if that, but certainly not 5 pts. 3.5 pts would make my line Warriors -1.77, not -4. The play here is on the Grizz or pass.
This season they do not have the common denominators that almost all champs have.
Their shooting efficiency is way to low, they are a good solid playoff team but not championship calibre this season.
Established in 1995,
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