NBA PLAYOFF TIME..............................2022 STYLE

During the regular season MEM was a strong 20-5 SU with Morant out:

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=grizzlies+record+without+ja+morant+2021-22

Per the sports betting analysts on Daily Wager, MEM's DEF EFF improved more than their OFF EFF weakened without Morant.

Yes, MEM or pass.  Good luck everybody with whatever you do.

@theclaw

@theclaw

Grizz +4 over Warriors --- 1.1 units

.................. yep brutal loss for the Celtics to take

yep, not a good spot for Warriors. Thanks for chimming-in , have any more querrires ?

1-1 ATS, lost .1 units

playoff to date --- 8-4 ATS, won 8.6 units

on a 8-2 run after starting 0-2. I don't think I had 1 losing record  day since, a couple of 1-1 days. 

brutal and embarrassing loss for the Celtics, unreal, especially when the freak who is horrible from 3 pt land made that 3, when he took it I said thank you freak, he was 2 of 19 at one point this series, of all the shots he could make at that time, just crazy.

not all that surprised to see a big win by Grizz but not a 39 pt win, that's kind of crazy itself. Warriors bounce back game 6.

MY LINES.........................................

Suns -.43 over Mavs

76ers - 3.14 over Heat....... with Harden 

Suns off a 30 pt blowout win, and 1 ATS win, not a bad spot off just 1 ATS even with a 30 pt blowout win, closeout game for Suns in a game 6 great spot for the Suns being the clearly better team according to both PR's , Suns will bring MAX effort tonight to avoid a game 7 where anything can happen. And when the better team brings MAX effort and the line is very managable with basically just needing to win SU I  have my largest play to date.

76ers off a blowout 35 pt loss, and 1 ATS loss, not a bad spot off just  1 ATS loss but with  more evenly matched teams according to the  PR's this has the look of a 7 game series. 

Suns -2 over Mavs --- 3.3 units

76ers -2 over Heat --- 1.1 units

Brutal how the game ended for the Celtics with Smart handling the ball final 2 possesions and Celtics not getting 1 good shot at the basket. Great plays by Holiday for sure, but why Smart handling the ball in that spot ? It looked like Smart lost control of the ball at halfcourt on that last possesion before Holiday stole the ball,  with the Celtics losing the lead the way they did and then those final 2 possesions ending like they did, oh my goodness how much more brutal could a loss be ??? 

Boston's toast.  I know they're saying all the right things, but you can't put this kind of loss out of your head.  It would be better if they lost the way Golden State did in a blowout.  Easier to flush that kind of loss instead of lose a big lead at home and then make all kinds of mental errors. Absolutely devastating.

Yes that is a brutal tough loss to over-come. If they get behind and things go wrong that might just start making excuses for losing last game  and pack it in.

But spots like this are where champions are born,  this team has really matured, especially Tatum  and these guy are ready to take that step to the next level, I think they come out and play like champions and get it done.

@theclaw

Same old nonsense your power ratings are off just like all the other recent years , you are the same guy that got killled a few yrs back i believe chasing the warriors series bet and game after game when they blew a 3-1 lead to the cavs 

Everybody should be glad that I didn't post before the PHX-GS game.  On Daily Wager they discussed how strong series game #6 road favorites are when they have 3 wins and the opportunity to close out the series.  I don't remember the exact numbers, but it was something like 21-6 ATS for the period they discussed.

However, I ran a query going farther back and added p:margin > 20.5 and it was only 5-4 ATS (now 5-4).  Too bad they didn't add that additional parameter.

I passed on the game.

@DogbiteWilliams

That should be PHX-DAL of course.

MIA did close out PHL but they were +2.5.

@theclaw

 Tough night but according to your numbers the Phoenix Suns should close it out on Saturday. And the Golden State Warriors should take care of business tonight. I think both teams move on to the next round.

Best Of Luck !!! 

0-2 ATS, lost 4.4 units

playoffs to date --- 8-6 ATS, won 4.3 units

Heat look strong but likely 76ers are not very good even with Harden they rank next to last of the remaining teams. The Suns loss just shows how weak the best teams are this season, coming off a big blowout win they fall flat on their face. Strong teams can easily handle this spot.

Only a matter of time before we have a rough night, we bounce back tonight hopefully.

MY LINES....................................................

Celtics -.05 over Bucks 

Warriors -6.27 over Grizz

Bucks lead 3-2, the team with a 3-2 series lead goes on to win the series a high % of times and if the road team leads 3-2 the wrap it up in game 6 more then not. Definately favors the Bucks.  Celtics are the better team and when a team over-comes a 3-2 deficit it is generally the better team. Does not mean they will just that in this spot they could do it.  I think Celtics bounce-back and get this game and then roll the Bucks game 7. But will pass with the 3-2 series leader being a very strong indicator we must respect.

Warriors are in a great spot tonight, 2cd close-out game as the better team. Warriors coming off an embarrasing game will abuse the Grizz tonight with 3's and that's all she wrote for the Grizz.

Warriors -8 over Grizz --- 2.2 units

good info.................

I think you also need to consider the quality of each team, strong teams VS much weaker teams or VS slightly weaker teams. Suns much stronger team and these type teams are the ones to over-come winning by 20.5 pts. I'd like to see the 9 teams and their opps and compare quality of the teams.

@theclaw

I ran this query:

PO = 1 and p:margin > 20.5 and WP - o:WP > 15

There was no edge; playoff teams off a win of 21+ points with an overall winning percentage advantage of at least 15 points are 26-26-1 ATS.  Adding "series game = 6" renders it even more worthless because there's only one game.

kimoinsd808