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NBA Totals Calc's

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Prospect
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Posted: #76
Agree, stay hot!
I tried a parlay with the best 6, would have been a nice payout. But 1 miss is still encouraging.  Thanks much!
 
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Posted: #77
Agree just play the +/- 2.00 or more
 
Prospect
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by fulcrum:


Sorry Ixorv I didn't want to offend you and I know that with good money menagment that 50+ % can be big $$.
I have just went to see your picks and try to figure out how your system works because you mentioned here bigger procentage then @Calculationer's and I think he is doing really great job. 

Now when I got explanation on your system I am aware of way you are playing, I have say that is not usable for me because I am half world away, so most of the game are 2-3 am. 

Good luck. 


no offense taken.  i think you misunderstood me, i also think that calc is doing something good here and once HE tweeks a few things to HIS liking, HE will find that 58% is a little low for what HE is doing.
 
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Posted: #79
great work bro. will be following this closely.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #80
great insight thanks
 
Prospect
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Posted: #81
One quick note for everyone.  After doing some calc's on my own using my recorded data from about the last month, which includes some time before posting on this site, I'm sitting at about 53-54% in calling overs correctly and about 64.5% when calling unders correctly.  There is a larger sample size for the under plays than the overs, but it does seem to be significant.  Its something I'm going to keep tracking to see how it turns out. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #82
Played your strongest picks yesterday: 3-0. (Indiana under, Portland over, San Antonio over). Thanks! And keep going on. Great work you deliver.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #83
Calc been tailing you since late last week. Very solid man. Thank you for your work
 
Prospect
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Posted: #84
Good luck guys. 

Thx @Calc for great plays. 
Everything is the same in my table except GSW-BK. Numbers are right but I had this feeling... :) 
 
I am on DET-TOR tonight. 

I also prefer under games, because in theory you are in winning situation from begining and sometimes 4th Q is making decision. In close games, they are playing defece thighter, so low scoring Q.

Sunday 4/7
Monday - all games had lowest score in 4thQ
Yesterday 5 or 6, 2 were close by point or two. 

 
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Posted: #85
nice thread Calc
 
Prospect
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Posted: #86
This one.. hurt..
 
Prospect
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Posted: #87
3-5 tonight.

Let's bounce back!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #88
It happens let's get it going again.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #89
Any leans?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #90
Wow, that was a rough night!  2 points away from 3-3, but went 1-4-1.  Some of the other games I had calc'd worked out but like I said I didn't play them, so I can't take them in my record.

Last night: 1-4-1
YTD: 40-31-1 = 57%

For tonight, here are my calcs

Team 1    Team 2    Line    Difference    Play    Expected Total
  Mia         Nyk     196.00     2.47         Over        198.47
  Okc        Den      209.50    2.85          Over        212.35
 
Prospect
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by Calculationer:

One quick note for everyone.  After doing some calc's on my own using my recorded data from about the last month, which includes some time before posting on this site, I'm sitting at about 53-54% in calling overs correctly and about 64.5% when calling unders correctly.  There is a larger sample size for the under plays than the overs, but it does seem to be significant.  Its something I'm going to keep tracking to see how it turns out. 


To take this a step further...try checking your record when your total is a certain amount under the line. 

For Example:
When my total is 3 pts under the books' line, my unders are correct XX.X% of the time.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #92
Your unders may be correct this often because unders have hit roughly 58% in games since you started this on 12/31.  Not saying that your model isn't working but I just wanted to point out that unders have been coming in lately.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #93
Hey Mercur1,
I do have that data, and my winning percentage takes a hike when looking at unders, as i mentioned, and then takes another hike when my spread is above a certain value.  I have that data, just not the time right now to share it.  Also, its on smaller sample size (I wasn't recording my expected totals for a while, just wins/losses).  Obviously unders have been working, and above about a -4.00 difference they're gold. 

Unfortunately I don't have loads of time to put into this right now, so it might be a bit before I get to it.  Every night, however, there is more data to pull from and more chance to better my betting system based on the numbers.  Right now the numbers are the one thing that I am confident in.  Obviously any night can give you any results, and especially when you're looking at only a 2 basket change between a win and a loss. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #94
Good luck tonight. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #95
Just wanted to thank you for posting your picks early, because I was able to get the totals before they both went up!  Just started tailing your o/u picks because I have no system of my own for o/u.  Been doing pretty good on teams that I post on this forum and now hopefully I can through your o/u picks in and do even better! Good luck and thanks!  
 
Prospect
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Posted: #96
through was supposed to be throw, sorry
 
Prospect
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Posted: #97
tonight
 
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Posted: #98
I like your system, very mathematical, congrats on doing such a great job, just wondering if you ever play reverse line movements into your equation, there is a small on the heat game tn (towards under) and I agree with the OKC game over, (with public betting an the way the total moved), just thought I ask,
BOL, keep up the great work
 
Prospect
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Posted: #99
Good work on the previous hits but systems cannot pertain to one factor only, I'm sure if you combine other factors into your system you would be better in the long run. Good luck on your picks as always
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Feb, 2013
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Posted: #100
Hey Calc, great job! Love to see a data-driven system have some success. Keep at it.
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