NBA Totals Calc's

Thanks for the comments everyone.  I'll definitely keep posting. 
MidMo, I'll definitely keep an eye on that trend you pointed out.  Hoping for a big night tonight!

Im gonna try these out since its been a success, which would you feel are your strongest 4 plays?

You make the call yourself.
I've given you my differences, which means that the larger the difference, the more the numbers suggest the play I am making will be correct.  None of these are locks, just the same way no-one else has for-sure bets out there.  With that said, I don't know how the Sas-Mem game is totaled so low.  Well, I do know its because their previous games all went below 196, but the pace and efficiencies of the two teams says it should be a much higher scoring game.  I'll probably be putting my foot in my mouth with that comment by night's end.  :(

Now, since I posted my calcs last night, to clarify these are my exact plays for tonight's games. 

Team 1    Team 2    Line    Difference    Play    Expected Total
  Was        Cha      190.50       2.66       Over        193.16
  Phi          Cle       205.00      -4.05       Under      195.95
  Tor          Ind        187.00     -12.21      Under       174.79
  Nop        Mia        204.00       4.10       Over        208.10 
  Det         Nyk       198.00       2.17       Over        200.17
  Pho        Chi        191.00       -5.45      Under      185.55
  Sas       Mem       196.50       11.37     Over        207.87
  Gsw       Mil         199.00        0.87      Over        199.87
  Lal         Dal         210.00       -2.98     Under       207.02
  Bos        Den       199.00       -0.36      Under      198.64
  Okc        Uta        196.00       -0.79     Under       195.21
  Por        Sac        216.00        7.56      Over        223.56

Good luck all.

Hey Calculationer,

Played tor/ind, sas/mem, por/sac, wish I had seen your post yesterday. 

I'm annoyed that Bovada hasn't posted OU for PhiCLE, NopMIA, PhoCHI all look like good plays.

Thanks Aussie.  I use dougstats.com and Nba.com stats.  Only team stats too, no individual stats.  I don't use full season stats either, only previous "n" games in my calc's, with my longest time frame of inclusion being from the last 20 games. 
Yeah, MidMo, I like all those plays too.  I'm very interested to see how tonight goes.  I've passed the 50 game sample size, and will be closing in on a 100 game sample size over the next week.  I've been told that a 200 game sample size is the minimum you need to feel comfortable with a system.  If I hit 200 games with a %58 or higher ratio I'm gonna be damn happy. 

Love this post and thank you great work. 

Are you noticing the bigger % difference between your line and the real line coming in at a higher %?

..this sounds familiar [grin]

you numbers are either dead-on to mine, or VERY different (most are identical), which i'm sure comes from weighting certain stats differently.

i think once you streamline your process and figure out where to draw the line for bet/no bet, you're going to be "damn happy" (and that 58% is low for what you can accomplish)

good luck

p.s. you can check out what i'm doing here ---> https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101797369

@ivorx sorry to notice that, but I see that your last season procentage on that system that you are using was around 53%. 

@fulcrum

???

i do not use a system, i cap my own games (though yes you are correct that there is a "bet under 1st half, double your bet on under 2nd half, if 1st half doesn't hit" "system" out there - and i can see why it might look like i've adopted that strategy if you didn't know better)

and secondly that 53% is not entirely accurate... that's on POSTED picks (72-63-6 last post was feb 28th).

two things:

one, i made way more than 141 picks last year, right up until the last day of the season, doing quite well too (though i am a firm believer in "if it's not documented, then it didn't happen" - so i make no claim past a 53% win rate for last year... except that you can see that i had 57.52% on 154 picks in the nba contest during that same time.

and two, i honestly find my self distracted by posting on here (with abolutely *no return, mind you) and find my self reaching for picks, so i get bored and (virtually) wander off and get back to making solid picks.  it's worth noting that last year, while some 1st half picks were posted, i was mostly posting full game picks.

Nice calcs.  Followed on the big differentials..

IND u 187
SAS o 195
SAC o 216.5  pending

hi calcu, your result today is not good, lots of Loosee than winsss hehehe

SAC o 216.5 

Very nice!

hit on my picks, looking forward to tomorrow.

no totals still for tonight? :)

Last night didn't go well.  5-7 for the night, however most of the stronger plays won, which tells me I have to stay away from the 50-50 games (games where i essentially pick the same projected score as the bookies).  Not a problem there, just less plays each night if my differences aren't there.  I am going to set the minimum difference at +/-2.00 for my betting, for everyone's info. 

Totals for tonight are below.  I'm putting a screenshot of my calcs rather than typing them by hand, which was getting annoying.  Anyways, for anyone following, my only plays tonight are below.  Do what you want with the other totals and play them if you will.

Det-Tor - Under
Dal-Sas - Over
Gsw-Brk - Under
Ind-Atl - Under
Was-Nop - Under
Pho-Min - Over

margin on these plays calc?

Count me in

Damn it, it made me type it out again.  Frick.

Team 1    Team 2    Line    Difference    Play    Expected Total
  Det         Tor        196.50    -6.85        Under      189.65
  Dal         Sas       208.50     2.30         Over        210.80
  Gsw        Brk       200.00    -7.22        Under       192.78
  Ind          Atl        188.00    -5.25        Under       182.75
  Was        Nop      197.50    -2.20        Under       195.30
  Pho        Min        212.50     7.48        Over         219.98
  Orl          Por       206.00      0.77        Over        206.77
  Bos        Lac       196.00      1.58        Over        197.58
  Lal          Hou                                                      212.08

i hope the indiana under streak continues. BOL guys. thanks @calculationer

Wait a second! I went 6-6 last night, not 5-7.  Better, but not good enough for my likes.  If I had stayed away from all the play with a difference of less than +/-1, I would have been 6-3 last night!  A much better result.  Anyways, here the overall details. 

Last night: 6-6
YTD: 39-27 = 59.2%

Thx for the stats calculationer! Hit the same three big differentials last night. Luckily Portland showed up in 4th.

Let's stay hot and bol