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NBA Totals Calc's

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Posted: #26
So, I went 3-3 last night.  Puts me at 21-14.  60%.  it would have been better if LA Lakers hadn't shot a ridiculous shooting %.  That one was primed to go under the whole game if you look at their pace.  Anyways...
For tonight, here is my math.  Lots of overs tonight.

Team 1    Team 2    Line    Difference    Play    Expected Total
   Nop         Ind      193.50     1.41          Over        194.91
   Mia         Orl       199.00    -5.52         Under       193.48
   Cle          Brk      193.50    -0.99         Under       192.51
   Atl           Chi       191.00   -6.26         Under       184.74
   Okc         Min      208.00     4.49         Over         212.49
   Lac         Sas      205.50     6.72         Over         212.22
   Mil          Phx      198.00     1.72         Over         199.72
   Phi          Por      224.50     7.46         Over         231.96
   Cha        Sac      200.50     1.53         Over         202.03

 
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Posted: #27
Switch the indiana game and miami game. I tailed you on the first 5 but missed those 2.
 
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Posted: #28
Last night went well-ish.  Started and ended sour, but had some good wins in the middle.  Went 6-3, to put me at 27-17 on the year, which is 61%.  My bankroll is growing, as I'd hoped :D.

As there are early games tomorrow, I thought I'd put my calc's out there as early as possible for anyone interested.  There aren't lines out for the Ind-Cle and Tor-Mia games as of yet, so I'm not sure what my play will be!

Team 1    Team 2    Line    Difference    Play    Expected Total
  Mem        Det      195.50     6.04          Over          201.54
  Ind           Cle                                                         180.36
  Tor           Mia                                                         198.01
  Gsw        Was      203.00    -7.83        Under         195.17
  Bos         Okc       195.00    -0.60        Under         194.40
  Nyk         Dal        202.00    -2.00        Under         200.00
  Den         Lal        204.00    -5.28        Under         198.72

I'm feeling good about the Mem-Det, Gsw-Was, and Den-Lal games.  I don't like to think of any games as a better bet than any others, but I may parlay those three with a small amount of money.  We'll see. 

To sum up:
Last night: 6-3
YTD: 27-17 = 61.4%

Al
 
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Posted: #29
Probably, your picks will be 'under' in IND/CLE game, since I expect the line will be somewhere around 186-187, and 'under' in TOR/MIA game - line will open around 200'ish. 
 
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Posted: #30
Calculationer, nice job!

I have simular way of predicting totals and just one game is not the same NY-DAL. I would play it over. 


 
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Posted: #31
Thanks Fulcrum, I appreciate it. 
As you can see, the NY-Dal game is close in my books, but I think I'm going to leave my play as an Under and stick with my program. 

How long have you been running your system?  Is it giving you some succuss?


Also, yes, my plays ended up being Under for both Tor-Mia and Cle-Ind.

 
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Posted: #32
Under on both games.
 I am doing calculation "on paper". 
I have just started to track plays on NBA contests, but only betting on "the strongest" bet in streak survivor. 
I will give a try for both systems and see which is more cost effective. 

 
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Posted: #33
i always read your post in the result of total score, most of your bet is WIN....good job buddy..
 
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Posted: #34
early lean for tomorrow? thanks ;D
 
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Posted: #35
Hey everyone,
Not a great night last night.  Still sitting near 60% though.  Tonight's plays are below.  Good luck all.

Record:
Last night: 3-4
YTD: 30-21 = 59.5%

Team 1    Team 2    Line    Difference    Play    Expected Total
   Min        Phi       219.50      7.68         Over        227.18
   Atl         Brk       197.50     -4.47        Under       193.03
   Orl         Lac       199.00     -4.33        Under       194.67

 
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Posted: #36
Good Luck!
 
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Posted: #37
Thanks Fulcrum.  You too.  Must have been a tough night last night for you if you had mostly the same picks minus the Nyk-Dal game.  I'm doing the same as you, picking the strongest game for my survivor pool. 
All in all, I'm looking hard at my data to see if I should start only playing games where my difference is of a certain value.  I'll post something on it if I see something.  I do find that my lowest projected under, regardless of what the line is, seems to come in as an under almost every night.  That's one I am going to be watching. 

 
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Posted: #38
Hey Calculationer, thanks for posting this thread. I was late in getting my plays down, but I'm on the ORL/LAC play. I'm excited bout this thread as I've never done even mediocre in NBA. Let me know of anything I can do to help your cause.
 
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Posted: #39
Yo MidMoMan, no problem about the thread.  I'm enjoying posting and winning so far.  Glad to see you won the Orl/Lac play with me. 
 
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Posted: #40
Got all 3 today!
 
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Posted: #41
I had a feeling you would sweep today. Great job and keep up the good work. 
 
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Posted: #42
To sum up:
Last night: 3-0
YTD: 33-21 = 61.2%

Well, it was a good night in the nba over unders for me last night.  Went 3-0, and went back above 60% since I started doing this.  Tonights games are below.  Enjoy. 
Leave me a message and let me know if you're using these calculations at all in your betting.  I'm not really sure if anyone is, so it would be nice to know. 
Cheers and best of luck all.  

Team 1    Team 2    Line    Difference    Play    Expected Total
  Was        Cha      190.50       2.66       Over        193.16
  Phi          Cle                                                       195.95
  Tor          Ind        187.00    -12.21      Under       174.79
  Nop        Mia        204.00       4.10      Over         208.10 
  Det         Nyk                                                       200.17
  Pho        Chi                                                        185.55
  Sas       Mem       196.50      11.37      Over        207.87
  Gsw       Mil         199.00        0.87      Over        199.87
  Lal         Dal                                                         207.02
  Bos        Den       199.00      -0.36      Under      198.64
  Okc        Uta        196.00      -0.79      Under       195.21
  Por        Sac        216.00        7.56      Over        223.56

 
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Posted: #43
Going to ride the train. BOL
 
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Posted: #44
I really like this thread. I will be parlaying Miami(over) SA (over) GS( over) and the Boston (under) 
 
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Posted: #45
thx for this thread! it's been a really helpful guide for me. i personally also check the starting lineups for both teams an hour before tip for any lineup changes which could possibly affect the total numbers. 

for example for yesterday MIN PHI was projected at 227, which was 7 points higher than the projected total of 220. I was ready to pound this total but once i found out tony wroten was going to be sitting for the sixers i reduced my bet size but still took a shot at it. luckily it still ended up covering but barely. 

will be keeping a close eye to see how the PHO CHI total is affected after the deng trade. thx again and BOL  
 
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Posted: #46
Nice job last night!

In doing a quick calc, plays that are predicted under > 4 are about 70%, but Overs > 4 about 53%.

I'm probably off, because it was just a quick comparison, but very telling.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by Tglea:

I really like this thread. I will be parlaying Miami(over) SA (over) GS( over) and the Boston (under) 
look at and compare his #'s with actual total GS,Boston, and OKC are all toss ups that could go either way.
 
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Posted: #48
Keep posting, very helpful...
 
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Posted: #49
GL
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Calculationer:

Thanks Fulcrum.  You too.  Must have been a tough night last night for you if you had mostly the same picks minus the Nyk-Dal game.  I'm doing the same as you, picking the strongest game for my survivor pool. 
All in all, I'm looking hard at my data to see if I should start only playing games where my difference is of a certain value.  I'll post something on it if I see something.  I do find that my lowest projected under, regardless of what the line is, seems to come in as an under almost every night.  That's one I am going to be watching. 


Great plays my friend. With you on Tor-Ind.

Don't worry about my bad days.  Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. I am still trying to find perfect money menagment system + calculation for winning games. So I am playing in few €/day. 

Good luck today. 
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