Posted:
#1
- "Only the penitent man will pass"
This line is from Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. I keep thinking about it when I think about the Nets in this series.
The Nets are trying to pass into the second round, a MUST round for them for all the payroll, blockbuster trades, a hall of fame player to coach, $100 million to Deron and on and on and on.
Are they penitent for taking the Raptors over the Bulls? We now know they likely would have beaten the Bulls. That series bet on the Nets over the Bulls would have been my biggest bet of the year.
I did not put a single dollar on this series. Why? I feared that it would come to this very game. Here it is. Game 7.
Are the Nets penitent for their sin of choosing a much younger, inexperience but gritty and emerging Raptor team over the Bulls?
I don't think they are.
Therefore, for this cap, in this thread, the Nets shall not pass into the second round.
I have written volumes about this series and much of it shouldn't be repeated because you already know it. So for this thread, I will write quick-fire points and tell you which team each point favors. At the end, I will add up the points and that will decide the pick.
1) The Refs - Who will they favor tomorrow?
This point is quite relevant. If you watched Hawks Pacers today, you saw how the refs took over this game and guided the Pacers to a comfortable victory. Would the Hawks have won otherwise? We'll never know. To deny this is a relevant point is to simply be oblivious to what goes on in the NBA, particularly in the playoffs.
In my eyes, and I've watched every game and every foul, the most crucial fouls have favored the Nets in this series. These fouls: hurt the Raps in Game 1, stifled a Raps comeback in game 3 (which the Raptors most certainly could have stolen), and even stifled a possible Raps comeback in Game 6 (believe me, that Game was about to get closer. How close? We'll never know).
BeginnerBoy has argued me on this and he has a point. Lowry and Derozan have gone to the line an unbelievable amount of times. That cannot be overlooked.
In the end, what I saw was a favorable Net whistle in Game 1 and Game 3, a slightly favorable Raptors whistle in Game 2 and Game 6 (which Kidd complained about and was fined 25K for), a favorable Nets whistle in Game 6, and now we are at Game 7.
As much as I want to say the whistle will favor the Nets here, with the Game 7 on the road, which the home team wins the overwhelming majority of the time, I have to think the calls will be even if not slightly in favor of the Raptors given the way the calls have been alternating.
So I'm giving a very, very slight edge to the Raptors with the whistle but that edge is critical in a game like this with these two teams.
Rating: +1 Raps
2) The league wants Heat vs. Nets.
Counter point 1 with 2. It is obvious the league would prefer Heat vs. Nets by a landslide.
Still, on the Raps home court in a Game 7, it's going to be hard for the NBA to work its playoff magic in front of 20,000 rabid fans, and after a whistle that has favored the Nets a bit the whole series.
Ultimately this favors the Nets though so they have to get the point.
Rating: +1 Nets
3) 1 PM start time
This translates into only a 3/4's day rest for both teams.
Game 6 started at 7PM on Friday. A B2B would be Saturday at 7PM. So every hour after that is true 'extra' rest.
The game starts at 1PM so this translates to 18 hours rest. It's not even a full days rest in a huge spot.
You've heard it before: The older team with the tired legs needs more rest. This favors the Raptors.
Rating: +1 Raps
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