PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:

if indy wants to really prove how tough they are, i want to see them hold charlotte under 60 points. 

gl hope the mechanic doesnt charge u an arm and a leg

Quote Originally Posted by Cmcmahan:

My book currently has pacers +195 to win the east with heat -120

Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:

well alan, while u were stranded in the ghetto , fearing for your safety, ive been diligently searching for insightful threads. 

so im not sure who had it harder

Quote Originally Posted by mkwilliams94:

I'm with you on the 1H under. I agree that the Bobcat's D is being overlooked by most gamblers, plus we have seen the Pacers come out slow against insuperior opponents. And like you said this could be a potential let down spot. I'm also taking 1H Bobcats +7. If you think the score stays under can you see the Pacers getting a 7 point lead?

Quote Originally Posted by TreyInventor:

Wow what a day for you bro. Cant tell if you are being sarcastic or not tho about the shootings and all of that. Thats crazy lol good luck tonight. Im tailing the first half under

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:



Sorry man...didn't see this until just now.  Here are my feelings and experiences on these types of future bets, especially in the NBA.

In a short answer, no I wouldn't take that.  Currently I don't have any Pacers futures.  Here's why.

I don't think there is much value in these future bets because these bets are just one injury away from being worthless.  Chicago Bulls being a perfect example.  Lot of people liked them to win the East this year...now those tickets are basically junk.  Especially in the NBA where one injury can completely change a team.  In baseball, football, etc one injury doesn't kill your team, but it can.

It's too far out to make a bet on the winner of the East at +195 because there's too much that can happen between now and then.  That being said, if everyone is healthy for the Pacers, I do think they win the East.  The Heat just don't have the horses inside, and quite honestly I think they are way too dependent on Lebron this year.  Even when Wade plays, he's not as fast as he used to be.  Can't and doesn't get all the calls he's gotten in years past.

So here's what I've done in years past and had success with.  When looking at futures, instead of looking at who you think will win...look at it if everyone is healthy...and then figure out who WON'T win...and take that.  For example, books sometimes will post something like Pacers to win East +300...Field -360.  What I do is look for the right situation where there's no way a team can win that situation, and then I lay the heavy juice and collect my money at the end of the year.

Example this year.  I'm a big NASCAR and F1 bettor.  5Dimes posted a line about 6 weeks before the NASCAR Playoffs (The Chase) on a driver  Aric Almiola to make chase +400...to not make chase -420.

He's not a good driver, he's not in a good car, but he had a couple of lucky finishes, but there was no way he was going to make the Chase.  So I made the biggest bet of my life laying -420, and even though it was a ton of juice, it won and it wasn't even close. 

I do this in all sports...look for a team (or driver/individual) who we all know isn't going to win their division, win their conference, make the playoffs, etc...see if one of them wins a couple of lucky games, plays better than they really are, etc...watch for a line and then take them to not make it.

I've lost too many futures betting on teams/guys to make playoffs, win divisions, etc only to have an injury, a losing streak or something else pop up to kill that bet.  I think it's easier to predict who WON'T win it all rather than who WILL win it all.

There will be 8 teams in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  Only 1 will move on.  Instead of laying +195 on one team and hoping they stay healthy, I'd keep that money in your bankroll and look for better value.

Come playoff time, I'll have no problem laying -850 on the Hawks to not win the East.  Lay $850 on that, wait 6 weeks and it's the easiest $100 you'll ever make. 

I have no clue if other bettors do this, but it's just been my personal experience.  The juice can be pretty scary to lay, but I've gotten used to it.  Out of all the bets I've made in this style, I have yet to lose one.  I'm sure it will happen, but by then I will still be way ahead.  It's not for everyone, but it's something I do on occasion.  I would say over the course of 12 months, I do 6-9 of these bets a year like that.  Hope this helps sir! 

Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:

alan i have a question along those lines.

last year, week 17 of the nfl season, your indianapolis colts knocked the houston texans out of the number 1 seed in the early game that deciding sunday.

therefore, in the later games, denver and new england were taking on kansas city and miami in must win games to clinch the top 2 seeds, which are, of course highly prized.  the spread on the denver game was -17, but the money line on the game was -1700. 

my question is, do u suppose there are people who would put down enormous sums like 1.7 million to win 100k on denver moneyline in that example.  in that game, there was absolutely no way kansas city was going to win.  the final score was 38-3, and i think kansas city was lucky to score 3.  their offense was really that bad last year.  as u were alluding to in your future wagering methods, they couldnt set a line high enough.  there would have been a better chance of georgia baptist community college beating florida state in college football game.  the difference to ur futures bets are that , im sure its easier to get down substantial sums on nfl games than there are futures.  and this one was as sure as they come. 

having said that, i would probably never make a wager like this

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Thought I'd do a little do write up on last nights disaster.  I totally swung and missed.  Probably should've stayed away based on the day I had. 

Pacers said that they are letting Rasual Butler take over Orlando Johnson's spot in the rotation.  And last night he played a bunch.  Granger is practicing, but is still rusty...I'm guessing he's going to be out another week before he starts playing real minutes.

I can't believe that first half last night.  Awful defense from 2 good defenses.  I guess it happens from time to time, but that came out of nowhere.

I discovered an interesting trend going over their games.  I can't find the history of what the individual half totals were, but it looks like in every Pacers game this year at least 1 half has gone under.  I know someone discovered this trend for College Bowl games last year.  Take the under in the first half for 1 unit.  If it hits, great.  If it misses bet 2 units the second half.  I think last year in the College Bowl games it came out 10 units ahead or something like that.  Looks like if we would've done this at the beginning of the year this trend would be way in the plus money.  I may experiment with this trend moving forward.  Next game is Monday at Detroit.