PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

Man just to ask,what opinion you have of granger as a defender?

He's very underrated.  Before he got hurt, and before Paul George and Hibbert became defensive superstars, Granger had to guard the best wing player on the opposing team every night.  He always embraced it, and did better than people gave him credit for.

A couple years ago against the Heat in the playoffs, he and Lebron got into a little scuffle and the public reaction was calling Granger a punk, and a baby.  If you go back and watch the scuffle, Lebron starts the whole thing (because Granger was pestering him and bodying him up on defense and Lebron got frustrated), and Granger reacted.  Now Lebron is getting the reputation of being a flopper, but back then people were on his side and not Grangers.  That started Grangers national reputation as being weak, but the fact is he is far from weak.  Quite the opposite.  Right now he's not quite up to his old game speed, but he's about 90-95%. 

Tonight he's got a tough matchup guarding Wesley Matthews, but in his first game starting since he got hurt, I gotta believe he's going to be playing as hard as he possibly can.

I see.Well i ll trust your opinion.It is much time since i dont see him playing,so i didn't know what to think about it.Let's hope on under then...the absence of Mo williams for the blazers showed in their last games,offensively they are not the same anymore.

Took the 1HU myself. As usual, hope to not have to make a halftime bet...

Tailed you today thanks.

Good play again

Got close there at the end, but the bad 1q got it for us.  No 2h play for me...rebounding being dominated by Blazers...Lillard unreal again...Pacers miss Lance.

Pacers at Magic

Both teams coming off of big Friday night wins.  Pacers get a big comeback win without Lance against a Western Conference powerhouse...Magic stun the Thunder at home (another Western Conference powerhouse).

Magic have actually won 4 straight home games, but don't let that fool you.  They've stunned the Thunder, and beat the Pistons, Bucks, and Lakers.  They've lost to the Hawks, Bobcats and Bulls.  On the road they've been a disaster, which is a common thing from a young team rebuilding. 

Pacers look like they will be without Lance again, and Granger will start again, but he still isn't in his groove.  He's healthy, but he's struggling to get back to 100% speed.  It's amazing in professional sports that when you're at 95% speed, and everyone else is at 100% how much of a difference that makes. 

Pacers and Magic should both be rested for tonight, and just looking at the Magic's box scores, it's pretty obvious they are trying to bring along their young guys slowly.  Olidipo is already at a high level for a rookie, but they are limiting his minutes as they are with Moore.  Probably a smart idea if you're just wanting them to learn and improve yet still get a good draft pick.  Overall, this roster is really weak, and they tend to get killed by good defensive teams.  Lost to Pacers by 19, Boston by 7, Toronto by 15, Charlotte by 10, Brooklyn by 11.  Now they do have wins over OKC, and Chicago recently (2 high ranked defensive teams), but with a young team, there will be some weird games sprinkled in.

Pacers don't need a whole lot of explanation here, but I will pat myself on the back.  I said earlier when the Pacers gave Lance the PG responsibilities that George Hill has always been a natural scorer in high school and college, and that he can score if given the chance.  Bang...career high 37 against the Blazers.  His last 10 games he's shooting over 56%, and has scored double digits in 3 out of the last 5.  It wouldn't surprise me to see his scoring numbers increase a bit and get more consistent after the all-star break.

So I said in the Blazers game that I was out of my groove a little bit so I leaned under and Blazers with the points.  Missed on the under (even if it would've stayed in regulation), but correctly had the Blazers and the points.

Still going to stick with the OH system as it has been great this year, and that's going to be my only play.

Leans:  Still not ready to play these as I've been off a bit, but here's what I think.  Magic getting 8 pts is too low.  Magic got killed by the Pacers, and I think if the Magic lose to the Thunder the line would be 10-11.  Magic would need another massive game to stay close with the Pacers, and I don't see a young team like them playing great against the Thunder and then against the Pacers.  I might also play a bit on the Magic under 91.5.

GL tonight gents

So far, so good

the magic were on a fifth game in seven nights when they were down by nine versus pacers in that game without jameer nelson.  paul george was 38 for 130 from the field in the prevous seven games.  and you failed to mention that pacers won by ten at home in their first matchup against the magic.  plus, that was the magic fifth straight win at home.  you know the pacers may win the nba championship, but it's tough to smoke the same team three games in a row during the season especially on a double revenge when the opponent is at home.  i know you know that.  keep up the good work.

Paul George got fouled on his last shot. Horrible

You are right I'm award of all that.  I agree that it's tough to smoke the same team three times in the season, but I liked the spot the Pacers were in here.  Plus, I liked the individual matchups, and the Magic have played good at home, but only had 1 quality win IMO.  I don't buy into revenge as much as most others.  I agree there are spots to keep it in mind, but I didn't see this one as a "revenge spot".  Maybe it was revenge, maybe the Pacers just fell apart in the fourth.

I also pointed out that that was my lean, and it wasn't an actual play for me.  In fact, the OH system won again with the 2H under (hope everyone followed that).

Also, I didn't see any of the game as I had work to tend to tonight, so I'll check out the local replay so I can see where it went wrong, but just looking at the box score it looked like everything was going fine til the 4th quarter.

No doubt my expectations of the last 4-5 Pacers games haven't been on point, but that's why I'm giving them as leans at the end of the writeups.  Also, just using the OH system has made it profitable to lay off the predictions.  You gotta admit...that's pretty good when I can be out of the groove on predictions, but still turn a profit.  No doubt I'll get back in the groove, and back to turning 2-3 units of profit a night as opposed to just 1 unit with the system, but in the mean time...patience is my friend at this point.  Thanks for jumping in here, and I'll definitely keep doing the writeups.  Good stuff StevenP

Nuggets at Pacers

Pacers lost to the Nuggets last time they played, and like the last time...it was the second game of a back to back. 

Nuggets have been flat out bad on the road.  They've lost by 15 at Detroit, 27 at Knicks, 5 at Portland, 14 at Phoenix, 15 at Jazz, etc.  They've beat Sacramento and Golden State, but what I find really interesting is that they really seem to struggle against the Eastern Conference teams.  They have wins over awful Milwaukee, Indiana (Indiana was off an overtime back to back), Orlando and bad Boston...and they've lost to Pistons, Knicks, Raptors, Cavs, Philly, Miami.

This definitely is the cliche "clash of styles".  Denver plays up tempo, and their games are constantly in the 210-230 total points, where the Pacers games are low scoring.  I looked back at the Pacers' back to back games, and they mostly seem to be low scoring with the Denver game being the exception.  Atlanta 174, Denver 205, Atlanta 184, Cleveland 160, Toronto 177, Brooklyn 189.

Denver is on a 4 game road stretch, and it hasn't started out very good.  They let the Knicks score 117 pts, and Detroit score 126 points.  I actually don't know how that's possible to let those teams score that much.  I went back and looked at the last game these two played, and the pace wasn't as fast as you would think.  Nuggets only shot 103 shots total...pacers 100.  The difference was Denver shot 37 free throws.  That should be expected since the Pacers were tired from the night before.

The Nuggets have gone 19 games in a row with at least 1 team scoring 100 points.  In 12 of those games both teams scored over 100.

Something that is becoming a fact with the Pacers is that the Pacers can absolutely struggle with small, fast teams.  If they get into a half court game, they are next to impossible to beat.  If an opponent can get their smaller guards running, penetrating and scoring/passing effectively the Pacers are vulnerable to get beat.  Phoenix did it to them twice this year...Orlando did it to them in the 4th quarter last night...DRose did it to them earlier in the year...Lillard and the Blazers have done it to them twice...OKC ran them and beat them, etc.

I was surprised to see Lance play last night, and I saw him interviewed and he was hurting.  I also notice he hurt his wrist on the last play of the game last night.  Haven't heard anything about his status for tonight.

A big piece of the puzzle for tonights game is that Ty Lawson looks like he will be out with a cracked rib.  He's the type of player that can really cause problems for the Pacers.

I read some Pacers quotes this morning, and the players are all saying that they just fell asleep and stopped playing last night.  West said they "got loose and didn't play the right way".  George said "We didn't put our foot down all the way".  They were all referring to the 4th quarter.  I don't think that will carry over into tonights game.  Pacers haven't lost 2 in row all season.

So we have a 10.5 spread.  Pacers playing back to back, lost last night...Nuggets struggling the last 2 road games without their main PG.  My best advice for the spread is to take the money you were going to bet on the spread, and go get a nice dinner because there is no way to tell what's going to happen tonight from a spread standpoint.  If the Pacers get beat by a fast, rested Denver team I wouldn't be surprised.  If they beat the Nuggets without Lawson by 20 points I also wouldn't be surprised.

There are so many angles to look at in this game...while doing the research my head started spinning.  I know that sounds boring to writeup a game, and then not have a play, but it happens.  Sometimes the best way to make money in wagering is to not lose it.

I am going to keep playing the OH system as it keeps hitting.

Leans:  I really don't have any strong leans, which is probably a good thing since my leans have been off the last 3 games.  But just for fun, if I had to make a pick on the spread I'd take the Pacers -10.5.

GL tonight everyone 

Side Note:  Donald Sloan, who plays on the Pacers, said he knows all about the fan that Marcus Smart pushed.  Said that dude has been around for a long time, and has done stuff like that for years.  I know Smart had to be suspended, but how big of a loser do you have to be to get your kicks in life by going to college basketball games and yelling at 18-19 year old guys? 

Nice write-up especially about Orr and staying away.  

look at the 1st half total 101 compared to the game total 197.5 interesting you think the books have adjusted to the recent  1st halfs overs

Alan is the OH system a play tonight?

First half over was only by .5 point last night...Blazers 1H was under...Atl 1H was under...Orl 1H went over...BKN 1H was under...PHO was over.

It's not really been a trend for 1H to go over for the Pacers, but it has recently for the Nuggets.  However, the Nuggets games have seemed to have had one high scoring half, and one low scoring half.  So I think the OH system is fine for tonight. 

It is for me. 

GL guys. 

Thanks man.  I learned several years ago that I would lose the most with "boredom bets".  These are bets that you make when you don't have anything going on that night, and you're like, "I'm bored...I'll bet on the game tonight just so I have some interest in the game".  I eliminated those games, and started turning a profit.  Tonight is a perfect example for me.

wow what a bad loss....it went over 1h by .5

Sorry, I didn't see your post.  I'll be honest...I took the under at 101.5 in the first half, so I had a win by 1/2 a point.  This is rare for me...I've lost 4 plays by half a point in the last 2 weeks.  But yes, the play for the second half was to double down and take the under.

I see the total in the second half was 98, but I don't know what the posted line was.  Apologies for not responding earlier. 

Mavs at Pacers

I'll first start off by saying...my god has there been some awful basketball being played in the NBA recently.

I was watching some 1st grader games here in Indy, and at that age group you have to line them up and point to who they are supposed to guard, make sure they know which way they are going, explain what a travel is, etc.  I swear that might actually help some of these teams (Lakers, 76ers, etc).  It's common knowledge the brains behind the 76ers are tanking, but c'mon guys...don't make it so obvious.

Back to the game.

Whenever I look at a game, I first look at the line...see what gut feeling I get...then do the research and see what conclusions I come up with.  I saw 9 as the line, and my gut was that was way too many points, and I saw 197.5, and thought that line was way too low.  But...that's why I do the research.

I looked back at the recent games of the Mavericks, and you look at the high point totals, but they aren't taking a lot more shots than most teams...they are just shooting a high percentage...from 3 point range, and from the free throw line.  Here's what I mean:

Dallas is top 5 in offensive efficiency, FG%, FT%, and 3PT%.  However, they are 12th in field goals attempted per game...and in February, they are attempting less field goals than the 3 previous months.  Meaning, they don't have more possessions than everyone else....they just make the most of them. 

How does this affect tonight's game?  Glad you asked.

The Mavs FG%, FT%, and 3PT% dip drastically when they have 0 days of rest...and they played last night and Dirk tweaked his ankle.  The other thing it does is play into the Pacers style.  Pacers have struggled this year against teams that push the pace.  What the Pacers do great, is play hardcore halfcourt defense, and they disrupt a teams flow.  It's also no secret that the Pacers can rebound.  Dallas...not so much...ranked 28th in rebounding right now.

Pacers also are rested, and at home...Dallas is on a road trip.  I'm a huge Rick Carlisle fan.  I think one of the most underrated/least talked about things in the NBA history is his coaching in the finals against the Heat.  The Heat were more athletic, had better wing players...basically had the advantage in most aspects, and Carlisle exploited what few advantages the Mavs had, and it was really unbelievable to watch.  I've seen Phil Jackson do similar things in series, but that series was one of the best coaching jobs I've ever seen.

Needless to say, I have tons of respect for Carlisle, and I think in a series he's going to have the advantage over most coaches...but with a dinged up Dirk, no days rest, on the road, and the Pacers bench can match the Mavs bench, I think that negates some advantages the Mavs sometimes have.  Also, since the first of the year the Mavs have had 2 back to backs.  They lost to Portland by 16, and the Spurs by 22.

My biggest takeway from the lines is that the books have a very sneaky, accurate read on this game.  If my initial gut was to take the over, and the Mavs with the points...I'm sure that's what most peoples gut feelings were.

So what are we doing tonight?  Gotta keep rolling with the OH system, and I'll be on the 1h under for sure.

If you've been following this thread, you know I've laid off my plays til I feel better about my reads on the game...and I feel great about my read on this game.  I'm a cautious bettor, and I had the correct side on the Nuggets game in my leans, so I'm going to take a little...I repeat a little...as in not a whole lot, not half my bankroll, not anything I'm going sweat if I lose, nothing out of control...on the Pacers -9. All stats and research points to the Pacers winning big...and even though it's a ton of juice...I don't think -470 on Pacers ML is a terrible bet...if you're a parlay bettor it might be a nice play to include.

Hopefully all the research turns out to be worth it!

GL tonight

Alan I went large on the 1H under 100. Was actually surprised it wasnt 97.5 or 98. The only reason the 1H went over last game was cuz of a stupid foul with 3 secs left from the 3 pt line. Even then it only went to 101.The 1H doesnt sniff 100 imo. GL