PACERS VS. RAPTORS - GAME 6!! WRITE-UP/analysis/comments all here!

Thanks guys. Rough start. Glorious finish.

No Mike, I don't bet 10K a game. A couple hundred here and there. I hit the posted games very hard for larger sums but not 'baller' hard per se. Why? I have a good job. I make enough money. This is a hobby and putting a ceiling on my bets keeps everything enjoyable. And I want it to stay a hobby and pay some bills here and there with it. And that formula has been working! Why deviate!

So now all anyone cares about is...Game 7 and I have some comments.

The big 2 for the Raps? The 2 premiere core players who were supposed to lead this team out of the first round in 15 years?

"Lowry & DeRozan are a combined 60 of 209 (29%) from the field in this series

Lowry 26-84
DeRozan 34-125"

You think you are going to win a series when your two best players shoot like that?

In the aggregate the Pacers have outplayed the Raps and what this game has done is really set in stone the fact that the Pacers as a 7th seed, can knock off this 2 seed.

Pacers head coach Frank Vogel, on the other hand, has every reason to hope for more of the same.

"I believe we can play with this team," he said, per the Pacers' official Twitter account. "We are hitting our stride at the right time and playing our best basketball."

All true. All legitimate. All fairly scary for the Raps and their fans.

Now Derozan vowed they wouldn't lose another first round after last year's embarrassment against the Wizards.

And how has he backed that up? 34-125 shooting.

THIS is exactly what the Raps did against the Nets 2 years ago. Up 3-2, dominated on the road in game 6 and lost at the buzzer in Game 7.

The saving grace is that this Raptors team is better and much deeper. But in many ways this Pacer team hitting its stride right now, with, and this is key, the coach who can maximize his players output, is even more dangerous than the Nets.

What's the line going to be? 6/7? 6.5?

Just based on all the success the Pacers have had the last 3 games, I cannot lay that number for the Raps. No way. 

The Pacers have lead for 110.5 minutes vs. 33.5 over the last 3 games.

What is Dwayne Casey, the inferior coach, going to present to change things? Less than one tenth of one second with a replay has prevented this series from possibly being 4-2 Indy! 

So what do you have in favor of the Raps? The enormous winning percentage of home teams in Game 7's in NBA history. It's around 82%.

And guess who lost the last one? The Raptors vs. the Nets. The one before that? The Nets. LOL. At home vs. the Bulls. See a pattern here? Grossly underachieving teams doing what they do in the playoffs. Even bucking wildly successful trends in their favor (and that trend DOES hold water folks. A game 7 at home is enormous in the NBA).

So those are my comments. I'm definitely not laying that number with the Raptors and I'd have to see what the books offer for the Pacers. It's the Pacers plus the points or nothing for me if this line is 6/7 but no formal post for this one so no need to look for one. They do have those maniacs up there going berserk (BUT the Pacers won there Game 1 and again, came with .1 of another win so it doesn't appear they are intimidated by that atmosphere).

I'm content with my winnings tonight which why I played this game over game 7. This was a pure line. Just win. We did that.

Game 7's are very tricky and I hate the streak of no series wins in 15 years hanging over the Raps head. I love to fade streaks like that and take the team on the losing streak. But I simply can't lay 7 points with the Raps here. Lowery is damaged goods (-17 +/- tonight!) and you have to have him at his best to look for a dominant Raps game. And his best is long gone. He hasn't had a rock solid game in 12 games! Go look at his game log! 17% from 3 in this series.

Terrible.

Going to rewatch Game 6 to see if I see anything extra and I hope I gave ya enough here to make a play if you want to. Raps aren't going to lay down and certainly can win outright. But the spread is a major concern for Raps bettors.

I'm not on twitter. I only post here.

SCAL - Solid as a Rock   

PACERS

You can't go into that series with Livingston getting the bulk of the minutes.

Curry is not even shooting yet! It's a week tomorrow since the injury. Here are his words: "Shooting is not on the docket right now. There's still pain."

That sounds like it's some ways off. With the guy who was the driving force behind the three wins over the Spurs questionable, I'm still getting the greatest formulation of the Spurs ever.

Spurs Memphis  was like watching Ohio State vs. Rutgers in football. GSW Rockets? Another joke BUT costly in that Curry goes down with not one but two injuries. Add to that they went for the 73, every game, every player no rest as the Spurs calmly rested there stars here and there and knocked off 67 wins.

Then you have the added pressure of carrying the equivalent of the 16-0 Pats record into the playoffs, lose and experience shame, off all things for the greatest regular season ever.

All these things lie on the periphery against the Warriors. The injury bug biting that at the most unfortunate time! Glad you double your bet! 

lmb