Posted:
#101
...as always win or lose appreciate the effort of course goes with out saying winning earns a big YEA BABY... Not my first rodeo with SCAL.. 
Be careful with the axe Eugene.
PACERS VS. RAPTORS - GAME 6!! WRITE-UP/analysis/comments all here!
Posted:
#102
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Dog Mara Mikey playa bum
Dog Mara Mikey playa bum
Trust me. Everyone here can be selective Mike. Don't believe that, because a line is out there, it must be bet. Most bettors here are winning bettors on their best plays. But they can't help but bet a shi*load of games simply because they exist. And you can't cap that many games effectively.
Melo's, appreciate it as always man!
I was pretty much floored to see the Spurs at +155 to win the West on 5Dimes after the Warriors beat the Rockets. As though the Rockets are anything to care about. That team is a fractured dumpster fire from start to finish. Honestly, Golden State should be mildly ashamed they lost a single game to them. Blowout wins without Curry against HOU are glorified scrimmages.
And with Curry out? Bum knee. Bum leg.
Does anyone here think he's going to be 100% upon returning? 90%? 80%?
Really? Even if he's 80%, is that enough to beat the Spurs? I will say this unequivocally: this is the best team Pop has ever had and he still has the magical, albeit fading, core which means everything to the all the new additions who have very limited playoff success. It is the core that strengthens when the new untested additions start to waver.
Best coach, right now the best roster comparing it to GS without Curry, legendary core, 67 win team, deep as an abyss, monster defensive leviathan in Kawai. What's not to like here at + money? We can't bet against the Warriors because of 73 wins? Why? Toward the end of the season where they carry the load of all the wear and tear of 82, they started dropping games like everyone else.
And here's two other keys I like about the Spurs:
I love that the Warriors are showing their offensive hand in these games. They are forced to without Curry. Pop has a scout on their games right now. They are emptying their bag of tricks and all they can count on is a healthy Curry and I have a big problem seeing that happen. If they destroy the Blazers it will be to their detriment because Curry needs more time to rest. Long series? More wear and tear on their tires.
I also love that Walton has been signed away. He'll finish the season but it's a psychological chin k in the armor for the staff and the players. A small one but still. One of their own is moving on. He was the guy who lead the 26 win opening season run so he has a connection with these guys.
Spurs? No issues whatsoever. Except to beat OKC who will not lay down. But to me it comes down to Pop vs. Donovan and how in the hell can Donovan come out of that? Spurs at home (40-1) in a game 7. How does OKC win that game? Curry was the bona fide star in all three wins over SA. He has to be 100%. No 2-9 garbage. And I just don't see a fully healthy Curry.
And if you are afraid of OKC? 5Dimes has a prop -110 for either Spurs or OKC to win the West. Wow. And if OKC ever gets another shot at GS, it is going to be Hagler/Hearns every night. But I don't see and I don't see a Curry who is even 90%. If he comes back sooner and as the old Steph vs. the Blazers? I'll reevaluate but it's very hard for me to see that. He only started riding a bike yesterday. No shooting. "It'a very hard to just get back or there after an injury." His words yesterday and obvious but it speaks to his mindset a bit. I wasn't crazy about his body language. Right now I'm perfectly content with the Spurs +155 to win the West.
brilliant!!!!...cheers,matey....got me thinking for sure....i cannot disagree with any points made watsoever and the gigantic wildcard and elephant in the room is obviously how curry recovers/returns from injury(if at all).
only tiny nagging worry over spurs is whether the new lead twosome of aldridge and leonard can deliver when its needed most..there will most likely be sum huge,huge moments in the series(if it happens of course) when smart,gutsy clutch plays are required and we havent seen those 2 do it yet in spurs uniform...yes they have that incredible support network around them and of course they arent exactly playoff neophytes......but there was always sumthing comforting in the days gone by when it came down to the wire and you cud rely on parker,ginobili and duncan.
kawhi/aldridge are very talented tho...i guess they'll be fine.
one thing about warriors is their steel,determination and resilience....they show time and time again they salivate over the prospect of a challenge and rise every time without fail....honestly i think they can scrap and claw to an even series for 2 or 3 games sans steph or watever it is if theyre still waiting on curry.....but then how will he be versus epic spurs defense off a long layoff??...i can see why you weigh this factor so heavily.
have to concur that the value is on that plus money all things considered.....golden state will clearly be no pushover but that psychological stigma in this historical matchup plus the fact that san antone lives for this time of year make them enticing no doubt.
With that being said Scal....Im ready for your game 7 write up.......or NOT??
Posted:
#110
Scal, buddy, long time no see (my choice of course). No more gambling for me, but nice call by you on the Pacers. If Steph is at 80% the Warriors will beat the Spurs. THE SPURS ARE TOO OLD. PERIOD. You really have to factor that in. The Warriors took two games feom them three years ago, and should have taken three. The rosters are almost the same, except the Warriors are in their prime. The Spurs have two studs (and one is a choker, you know who), and a bunch of old men. Steph has to be around 60% for the Spurs to even have a shot (imo). Also, in my opinion, the Cavs are the better long shot bet. I think if they're young and hungry enough to give the Warriors all they can handle.
Good Luck, buddy
Posted:
#111
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Scal, buddy, long time no see (my choice of course). No more gambling for me, but nice call by you on the Pacers. If Steph is at 80% the Warriors will beat the Spurs. THE SPURS ARE TOO OLD. PERIOD. You really have to factor that in. The Warriors took two games feom them three years ago, and should have taken three. The rosters are almost the same, except the Warriors are in their prime. The Spurs have two studs (and one is a choker, you know who), and a bunch of old men. Steph has to be around 60% for the Spurs to even have a shot (imo). Also, in my opinion, the Cavs are the better long shot bet. I think if they're young and hungry enough to give the Warriors all they can handle.
Scal, buddy, long time no see (my choice of course). No more gambling for me, but nice call by you on the Pacers. If Steph is at 80% the Warriors will beat the Spurs. THE SPURS ARE TOO OLD. PERIOD. You really have to factor that in. The Warriors took two games feom them three years ago, and should have taken three. The rosters are almost the same, except the Warriors are in their prime. The Spurs have two studs (and one is a choker, you know who), and a bunch of old men. Steph has to be around 60% for the Spurs to even have a shot (imo). Also, in my opinion, the Cavs are the better long shot bet. I think if they're young and hungry enough to give the Warriors all they can handle.
Good Luck, buddy
good to see you alive and kicking,dude.
have to disagree with you on the spurs...they get tonnes and tonnes of rest all season long obviously so have plenty left in the tank this time of year....guys like leonard,aldridge,parker,green,diaw are all either in their prime or just a wee bit past it...by no means will they be so old or fatigued that they dont have a very strong run in them for a 6 week period.
in the end age is irrelevant if you are playing great,smart,unselfish basketball.....as for the regular season matchups,you know as well as i do that popovich only went all out in one and a half of those games so results are pretty meaningless...they mean so much more to the warriors obviously cos they have been spurs bit.ch for soooo long......but popovich and co. cud not care less about those outcomes.they only needed to try wat they needed to try and see wat they needed to see to give indications of wat mite work moving forwards in terms of stopping this golden state offensive juggernaut.
honestly i think youre under-estimating curry's worth to his team...yep they are terrific,deep,unselfish,defensively sound and all of that....but when it comes down to it you are gonna need a guy to make his own shots at this time of year and to be able to hit them under pressure against the tightest defense and most meticulous scouting...who's gonna do that,klay,draymond,barnes,iguodala???.......good luck with that.
i think ya definitely need curry for half of the series and for him to be very close to his best.....spurs can steal one on the road no matter how big warriors homecourt is,and every bit of offense available will be needed when san antone locks in defensively.
goes without saying that spurs shud be underdogs and nothing gonna come easy here....warriors deservedly earned the right to be favoured....but i dont think its crazy at all for scalabrine to see value in spurs odds.
Posted:
#112
Great analysis of your pick, Scal. Unfortunately, I put a number on Toronto winning the series and I don't exactly see this happening for them with their recent performance. What would you say about tomorrow's game at Toronto? I'm thinking of placing a number on Indiana in the event that I lose the Toronto series, which seems like a safe bet at this time.
Posted:
#113
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:
good to see you alive and kicking,dude.
have to disagree with you on the spurs...they get tonnes and tonnes of rest all season long obviously so have plenty left in the tank this time of year....guys like leonard,aldridge,parker,green,diaw are all either in their prime or just a wee bit past it...by no means will they be so old or fatigued that they dont have a very strong run in them for a 6 week period.
in the end age is irrelevant if you are playing great,smart,unselfish basketball.....as for the regular season matchups,you know as well as i do that popovich only went all out in one and a half of those games so results are pretty meaningless...they mean so much more to the warriors obviously cos they have been spurs bit.ch for soooo long......but popovich and co. cud not care less about those outcomes.they only needed to try wat they needed to try and see wat they needed to see to give indications of wat mite work moving forwards in terms of stopping this golden state offensive juggernaut.
honestly i think youre under-estimating curry's worth to his team...yep they are terrific,deep,unselfish,defensively sound and all of that....but when it comes down to it you are gonna need a guy to make his own shots at this time of year and to be able to hit them under pressure against the tightest defense and most meticulous scouting...who's gonna do that,klay,draymond,barnes,iguodala???.......good luck with that.
i think ya definitely need curry for half of the series and for him to be very close to his best.....spurs can steal one on the road no matter how big warriors homecourt is,and every bit of offense available will be needed when san antone locks in defensively.
goes without saying that spurs shud be underdogs and nothing gonna come easy here....warriors deservedly earned the right to be favoured....but i dont think its crazy at all for scalabrine to see value in spurs odds.
Of course they'll need Curry (they lose without him), but if that's what this bet is based on then that's just betting on a total unknown. With Curry at 100%, Warriors win in 5. Curry at 80% they win in 6 or 7. And Curry at 60% is a toss up. Just go back and look at those box scores from 3 years ago, when the Warriors gave the Spurs all they could handle. The only upgrade is Leonard (being in his prime) and LA (whom Green will make a non-factor). Parker, Duncan, Manu, Diaw are three years older. It's not about rest, it's about being old and slow. As a good a coach as Pop is, he can't turn back the clock.
Posted:
#114
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Of course they'll need Curry (they lose without him), but if that's what this bet is based on then that's just betting on a total unknown. With Curry at 100%, Warriors win in 5. Curry at 80% they win in 6 or 7. And Curry at 60% is a toss up. Just go back and look at those box scores from 3 years ago, when the Warriors gave the Spurs all they could handle. The only upgrade is Leonard (being in his prime) and LA (whom Green will make a non-factor). Parker, Duncan, Manu, Diaw are three years older. It's not about rest, it's about being old and slow. As a good a coach as Pop is, he can't turn back the clock.
okay,cool.......you cud be proven right...time will tell..but of all people a keen hoops enthusiast such as yourself knows all too well that folks have been saying this exact same thing for about ....oh........8 seasons or so.
and most times have been made to look silly as spurs pile up championship trophies.
remember that the cornerstone of both these teams success is intelligent,unselfish play..the ball ALWAYS beats the man.(even usain bolt cant outrun a frickin pass)...so as long as the grandpa's on the spurs have speed between the ears and the right attitude(which they always have) then they can keep up....this warriors team is brilliant in many ways but they certainly dont over-power you,jump over you or run you out of the gym.(unless you turn the ball over which spurs are well aware of and will keep to an absolute minimum).....athletically and speed-wise golden state is only average by nba standards.the only guys approaching elite athleticism on that squad are barnes and iguodala and he's an old guy himself now......it is extreme skill and team chemistry where they really excel obviously.
a lot of things will have to go well for spurs,they will definitely have to have sum hot shooting nites to match g.s.w and the margin for error is tiny versus a historic team with so many weapons like the dubs........but make no mistake the spurs will be extremely motivated and any short-comings in terms of aged legs or speed mis-matches here and there will be papered over and compensated for in other ways.
hoping that curry does come back strong and we see a monstrous series for the ages.
are you working now or looking after family at home if you dont mind me asking??....anyway,good to hear you kicked a habit of sumthing that brought you so much misery/torment.
Posted:
#115
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:
okay,cool.......you cud be proven right...time will tell..but of all people a keen hoops enthusiast such as yourself knows all too well that folks have been saying this exact same thing for about ....oh........8 seasons or so.
and most times have been made to look silly as spurs pile up championship trophies.
remember that the cornerstone of both these teams success is intelligent,unselfish play..the ball ALWAYS beats the man.(even usain bolt cant outrun a frickin pass)...so as long as the grandpa's on the spurs have speed between the ears and the right attitude(which they always have) then they can keep up....this warriors team is brilliant in many ways but they certainly dont over-power you,jump over you or run you out of the gym.(unless you turn the ball over which spurs are well aware of and will keep to an absolute minimum).....athletically and speed-wise golden state is only average by nba standards.the only guys approaching elite athleticism on that squad are barnes and iguodala and he's an old guy himself now......it is extreme skill and team chemistry where they really excel obviously.
a lot of things will have to go well for spurs,they will definitely have to have sum hot shooting nites to match g.s.w and the margin for error is tiny versus a historic team with so many weapons like the dubs........but make no mistake the spurs will be extremely motivated and any short-comings in terms of aged legs or speed mis-matches here and there will be papered over and compensated for in other ways.
hoping that curry does come back strong and we see a monstrous series for the ages.
are you working now or looking after family at home if you dont mind me asking??....anyway,good to hear you kicked a habit of sumthing that brought you so much misery/torment.
Thanks for asking, melo. Yes, working my behind off (even more than with gambling), but enjoying it because it is my passion and it gives something back to me that makes me spiritually whole (vs gambling which only takes, takes, takes...even when you win:) . Still watch a lot of basketball and though the warriors are my team, I'm giving you my unbiased opinion. I know people have said the Spurs are old for ages, but at some point that becomes a reality. I watched all their games against GS, and believe me they wanted to win (but the warriors are too good for them, which is amazing since the Spurs won 67 games). Of course, if Curry is not himself, all bets are off. But I still like the Cavs as a sleeper team that everyone is counting out (at least agains the Warriors and Spurs). -280 for them to Win the East is free money. They have the easiest path to the finals, and LBJ has a score to settle with both the Spurs and Warriors. Those series will likely go 7.
Posted:
#116
BB,
I love ya and trust your opinion on the warriors more than anyone. In fact, I've solicited it several times this year.
But first, I have to disagree with your comment on LA. In two games he was a non-factor but in the other two he was monstrous averaging 24 and 12.
And remember, towards the end of the season, those games meant little to nothing to the Spurs because everything was locked up. Several players got fewer minutes and Duncan sat in one.
And the first blowout of 30 points? I don't want to take away a dominant win but Pop is famous for thowing in the towel after 2 quarters if he doesn't see a win.
He's also famous for not showing his hand in meaningless games (remember he dumped to OKC two years ago after that 19 game win streak just to end and not have the pressure of continuing it into the playoffs (a streak in which they walloped Golden State twice but that's neither here nor there).
Well GS has that pressure now. Just like that Pats and I firmly believe if the Pats did not have the 18-0 record vs. the Giants, they would have won (covering is another story).
So the Warriors have played all 82 right to the end unlike like the Spurs.
The Warriors have the burden of the season being a failure because they carry the greatest regular season of all time into the playoffs.
The Warriors have an unknown variable now with Curry's issues and you said yourself, it's a toss up if he's 60%. He has both ankle and knee issues, either of which can take him off the floor at any time.
While you have age, you have so much experience to guide all those (the LA's the West's the Martins) through the trials and tribulations of the playoffs.
Speaking of West and Martin, they came to the Spurs...for nothing. Just basically gave themselves to the Spurs like players gave themselves to the Yankees in the late 90's and early 2000's, just to make a run at it. Are their stats eye-opening? No. But they aren't chopped liver and can easily drop 15 in a game.
They remind me of someone like PJ Brown who had a crucial 10 and 6 and the de facto game winner against the Cavs in game 7 of the second round...being called upon at the most crucial of moments and chipping in mightily.
Those pickups remind the other assets on that Boston team that eventually won.
Of course you have the mad genius in POP and remember the Warriors are a mere 1-33 at San Antonio. That's yet another game GS went all out to play in to win, just for HISTORY's sake, like the 73, to remove a scarlet letter from their torso.
And kudos to them for doing it.
But I'll take the 1.55-1 for the most powerful team pop has ever had and yes, I'm hoping for less Curry than more of course. At those odds, I have no problems.
Also see how the Spurs just picked apart OKC like a child rips the legs off a daddy longlegs last night. Could have easily won by 50 if they wanted to. Against a team that gave GS everything and anything it could handle in the game of the year.
The odds are too good with all the above BB.
We do agree on something! The potential for the Cavs revenge! That's why I took the West bet only.
Melos, you wrote enough there for me not to repeat it...good stuff.
For people asking about Raps/Pacers Game 7, the Toronto marathon has thrown a wrench in that pick. The Pacers could not make it to the arena for a shootaround (practice) today because of that marathon which bothers the hell out of me. I'd love to see the Raps win but not cover but I already took Indy and the points for a unit but it's not of the quality for its own thread. It's not as good a spot as game 6, you have the marathon garbage, but I'm hard pressed to see what Casey can present on the floor, outside of what he's already shown, that will win this game. If Lowery is 3-11 again, say goodnight and that guy has had one good game in the last 16.
Art Flo Eages..
To the 'grill' comment, I'm as confused as anyone else. If that's a compliment I'll have to pass.
(BB good to hear you are doing what you love too! I've asked ya about it in the past but you never responded. And you could be right about GS. But at + money, I'm riding with Pop and Co.)
Posted:
#117
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Thanks for asking, melo. Yes, working my behind off (even more than with gambling), but enjoying it because it is my passion and it gives something back to me that makes me spiritually whole (vs gambling which only takes, takes, takes...even when you win:) . Still watch a lot of basketball and though the warriors are my team, I'm giving you my unbiased opinion. I know people have said the Spurs are old for ages, but at some point that becomes a reality. I watched all their games against GS, and believe me they wanted to win (but the warriors are too good for them, which is amazing since the Spurs won 67 games). Of course, if Curry is not himself, all bets are off. But I still like the Cavs as a sleeper team that everyone is counting out (at least agains the Warriors and Spurs). -280 for them to Win the East is free money. They have the easiest path to the finals, and LBJ has a score to settle with both the Spurs and Warriors. Those series will likely go 7.
Posted:
#121
Quote Originally Posted by brettcards:
this thread got too long for me to track it down and reading every post, but did Scal make a pick on tonight
this thread got too long for me to track it down and reading every post, but did Scal make a pick on tonight
He leans Indiana but not nearly as strong as last game. Was trouble with the fact that the Toronto Marathon kept the Pacers out of shoot arounds in the Craptor home court.
Posted:
#122
Here is what he said:
"For people asking about Raps/Pacers Game 7, the Toronto marathon has thrown a wrench in that pick. The Pacers could not make it to the arena for a shoot around (practice) today because of that marathon which bothers the hell out of me. I'd love to see the Raps win but not cover but I already took Indy and the points for a unit but it's not of the quality for its own thread. It's not as good a spot as game 6, you have the marathon garbage, but I'm hard pressed to see what Casey can present on the floor, outside of what he's already shown, that will win this game. If Lowery is 3-11 again, say goodnight and that guy has had one good game in the last 16."
"For people asking about Raps/Pacers Game 7, the Toronto marathon has thrown a wrench in that pick. The Pacers could not make it to the arena for a shoot around (practice) today because of that marathon which bothers the hell out of me. I'd love to see the Raps win but not cover but I already took Indy and the points for a unit but it's not of the quality for its own thread. It's not as good a spot as game 6, you have the marathon garbage, but I'm hard pressed to see what Casey can present on the floor, outside of what he's already shown, that will win this game. If Lowery is 3-11 again, say goodnight and that guy has had one good game in the last 16."
Hot Forum Topics
