ERA, of course, but the next 3 most relevant #'s: WHIP, flys-to/ground-ball, pure quality starts.
WHIP is the total of walks and hits per inning pitched. An idea as to how many “opportunities” a pitcher usu. gives the other team.
Pitch count & efficiency, both of which can be far more important than ERA. Under 1.20 for a WHIP is hard to bet against, as it means the pitcher is allowing 1.2 base runners per inning. Anything over 1.40 is where we bet on the opponent, or that starter needs great bullpen help.
Fly-bal-to-ground-ball ratio matters because the pitcher with a low frequency of fly-ball outs is far more likely to induce a rally-killing double play ball. This is very good if the game's in Coors Field (Col) or Great American (Cinci), very small, hitter-friendly parks.
The opposite also holds. Take Phil Hughes, who is a bet against the Twins when they're in an AL park that is small & hitter-friendly, like Cleveland, Houston, and Texas so know the ball park.
Must start to look for spots to also fade some starters: (minimum of 80 batted-ball events) Tanaka, NYY (much higher walk-rate), Nolasco, LAA (8.3% barrels/PA, top 25 avg. exit velo) and Holland, CWS (ERA/xFIP split disparity) especially against lineups with good #'s against these starters.
Robbie Ray 46.9% BABIP, higher ERA, but low xFIP teams w/ low K's win, high K-ratio teams will lose.
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ERA, of course, but the next 3 most relevant #'s: WHIP, flys-to/ground-ball, pure quality starts.
WHIP is the total of walks and hits per inning pitched. An idea as to how many “opportunities” a pitcher usu. gives the other team.
Pitch count & efficiency, both of which can be far more important than ERA. Under 1.20 for a WHIP is hard to bet against, as it means the pitcher is allowing 1.2 base runners per inning. Anything over 1.40 is where we bet on the opponent, or that starter needs great bullpen help.
Fly-bal-to-ground-ball ratio matters because the pitcher with a low frequency of fly-ball outs is far more likely to induce a rally-killing double play ball. This is very good if the game's in Coors Field (Col) or Great American (Cinci), very small, hitter-friendly parks.
The opposite also holds. Take Phil Hughes, who is a bet against the Twins when they're in an AL park that is small & hitter-friendly, like Cleveland, Houston, and Texas so know the ball park.
Must start to look for spots to also fade some starters: (minimum of 80 batted-ball events) Tanaka, NYY (much higher walk-rate), Nolasco, LAA (8.3% barrels/PA, top 25 avg. exit velo) and Holland, CWS (ERA/xFIP split disparity) especially against lineups with good #'s against these starters.
Robbie Ray 46.9% BABIP, higher ERA, but low xFIP teams w/ low K's win, high K-ratio teams will lose.
Simply tiered, we have Coors field, Chase field, Camden Yards, Miller Park = great hitter’s parks, vs. AT&T stadium, Dodger Stadium, Petco Park, Safeco field, Citi Park = extreme pitcher’s parks.
Other parks change each year, for various reasons. Park factors relate directly to the home team’s strengths & weaknesses.
E.g., Barry Bonds huge PED-HR years had a huge skewing effect on AT&T Park's factors. It'd been known to be hard to hit HRs towards right field, but most of Bonds’ blasts went to right field.
Progressive field of The Tribe has suddenly become a much more extreme hitter-friendly park, partly b/c the renovations done to it opened up a crosswind to right field that has resulted in many more homeruns.
The park factors given on ESPN are misleading b/c some have no reputation of being an extreme park.
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3 keys for O/Us
Firstly, consider the MLB park factors.
Simply tiered, we have Coors field, Chase field, Camden Yards, Miller Park = great hitter’s parks, vs. AT&T stadium, Dodger Stadium, Petco Park, Safeco field, Citi Park = extreme pitcher’s parks.
Other parks change each year, for various reasons. Park factors relate directly to the home team’s strengths & weaknesses.
E.g., Barry Bonds huge PED-HR years had a huge skewing effect on AT&T Park's factors. It'd been known to be hard to hit HRs towards right field, but most of Bonds’ blasts went to right field.
Progressive field of The Tribe has suddenly become a much more extreme hitter-friendly park, partly b/c the renovations done to it opened up a crosswind to right field that has resulted in many more homeruns.
The park factors given on ESPN are misleading b/c some have no reputation of being an extreme park.
2ndly, contact rate, usually judged by strikeout rate. Pitchers can be good, but not strike out batters, but it’s very valuable to prevent even the possibility to allow a batter to get on base. With strikeout rate, one must consider walk rate. Again, a pitcher can get away with walking batters to an extent, but putting on baserunners is problematic. A high walk rate is fine so long as it’s paired w/ a high strikeout rate (e.g., Carlos Martinez), but a high walk rate (= control issues) without a high swing&miss rate is not good for under FF & usu. not ok for FG, too.
But if a pitcher has both a high strikeout rate, and a low walk rate, that means they are limiting runs.
Clayton Kershaw has good batted ball numbers, but they aren’t among the best in baseball. What makes Kershaw one of the best of pitchers in baseball is his ability to limit walks, and strike out a ton of batters. Generally, I will also look at
FIP & xFIP give more depth to an analysis, but a good idea of what a pitchers FIP/xFIP look like comes from their walk rate & strikeout rate.
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2ndly, contact rate, usually judged by strikeout rate. Pitchers can be good, but not strike out batters, but it’s very valuable to prevent even the possibility to allow a batter to get on base. With strikeout rate, one must consider walk rate. Again, a pitcher can get away with walking batters to an extent, but putting on baserunners is problematic. A high walk rate is fine so long as it’s paired w/ a high strikeout rate (e.g., Carlos Martinez), but a high walk rate (= control issues) without a high swing&miss rate is not good for under FF & usu. not ok for FG, too.
But if a pitcher has both a high strikeout rate, and a low walk rate, that means they are limiting runs.
Clayton Kershaw has good batted ball numbers, but they aren’t among the best in baseball. What makes Kershaw one of the best of pitchers in baseball is his ability to limit walks, and strike out a ton of batters. Generally, I will also look at
FIP & xFIP give more depth to an analysis, but a good idea of what a pitchers FIP/xFIP look like comes from their walk rate & strikeout rate.
3rdly, batted ball numbers, e.g., BABIP which has very low correlation from year to year, but that doesn’t make it a completely random number. A pitcher who allows a lot of line drives is going to have a higher BABIP than a pitcher who allows an inordinate # of groundballs, b/c line drives turn into hits more often than groundballs.
Chris Young has had a long rather ordinary career at the back-end of pitcher-rotations in which he was in. But his ERA has outperformed his FIP every single year of his career, and his BABIP has been above the league average of .300 just one time. So Young is doing things to outperform his FIP so consistently, such as limiting line drives, and hitters barreling up his tosses for hard hit balls. In his career, Young has allowed a line drive percentage of just 18.5%, way better than the league average of 22-23%. Line drives go for hits over 2/3s of the time, so they are by far the best hit. Young also has a very low hard hit ball rate. Hard hit balls are also very important to keep low, b/c they often turn into homers. Young has a career hard hit ball rate of only 16.6%, which is also way better than the league average that is around 20%.
Fangraphs has created a stat SIERA that accounts for batted ball data. It's a useful stat, tho' does not have any long history, but SIERA becomes more effective to judge pitchers all-around performance.
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3rdly, batted ball numbers, e.g., BABIP which has very low correlation from year to year, but that doesn’t make it a completely random number. A pitcher who allows a lot of line drives is going to have a higher BABIP than a pitcher who allows an inordinate # of groundballs, b/c line drives turn into hits more often than groundballs.
Chris Young has had a long rather ordinary career at the back-end of pitcher-rotations in which he was in. But his ERA has outperformed his FIP every single year of his career, and his BABIP has been above the league average of .300 just one time. So Young is doing things to outperform his FIP so consistently, such as limiting line drives, and hitters barreling up his tosses for hard hit balls. In his career, Young has allowed a line drive percentage of just 18.5%, way better than the league average of 22-23%. Line drives go for hits over 2/3s of the time, so they are by far the best hit. Young also has a very low hard hit ball rate. Hard hit balls are also very important to keep low, b/c they often turn into homers. Young has a career hard hit ball rate of only 16.6%, which is also way better than the league average that is around 20%.
Fangraphs has created a stat SIERA that accounts for batted ball data. It's a useful stat, tho' does not have any long history, but SIERA becomes more effective to judge pitchers all-around performance.
If in the previous game a starter gets pulled within the first 3 innings, a mgr. may be more desperate to have his starter throw as many innings as possible. One of the most important jobs of a manager is to keep his bullpen fresh, but if they were made to pitch 6 innings the previous game, less will be available to pitch the next day. This can lead the starter to be forced to stay in longer than ideal, typically resulting in an extra run or two.
While managers are generally good at working around this problem, if a team has a very bad week from their starting pitchers, then it gets more difficult to ensure fresh bullpen arms.
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If in the previous game a starter gets pulled within the first 3 innings, a mgr. may be more desperate to have his starter throw as many innings as possible. One of the most important jobs of a manager is to keep his bullpen fresh, but if they were made to pitch 6 innings the previous game, less will be available to pitch the next day. This can lead the starter to be forced to stay in longer than ideal, typically resulting in an extra run or two.
While managers are generally good at working around this problem, if a team has a very bad week from their starting pitchers, then it gets more difficult to ensure fresh bullpen arms.
In the past, there was a lot of value that could be extracted from simple lefty/righty splits, but that is becoming less & less the case. Most teams now have some sort of super utility-player who can platoon w/ different positions to ensure that these splits will mean less. Teams are also much more likely to platoon in positions where they are lacking a very good player at that position.
The Indians platoon their right fielder: Chisenhall or Guyer will get tinto the lineup depending on the starter being a leftie or a rightie.
How strong an offense really is can be garnered from simply looking at the team wRC+, or WOBA, or both = stats encompassing a view to seeing the true value each potential play a hitter can produce.
While offense of course affects how many runs will be scored, run prevention is usu. more important a factor to consider when betting totals in the MLB.
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In the past, there was a lot of value that could be extracted from simple lefty/righty splits, but that is becoming less & less the case. Most teams now have some sort of super utility-player who can platoon w/ different positions to ensure that these splits will mean less. Teams are also much more likely to platoon in positions where they are lacking a very good player at that position.
The Indians platoon their right fielder: Chisenhall or Guyer will get tinto the lineup depending on the starter being a leftie or a rightie.
How strong an offense really is can be garnered from simply looking at the team wRC+, or WOBA, or both = stats encompassing a view to seeing the true value each potential play a hitter can produce.
While offense of course affects how many runs will be scored, run prevention is usu. more important a factor to consider when betting totals in the MLB.
Pitcher starts in his former teams ball park => they almost always lose and his team is 0-4 this year on Thursdays while his former team is 4-0 on Thursdays.
That's Cub (-113)
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Pitcher starts in his former teams ball park => they almost always lose and his team is 0-4 this year on Thursdays while his former team is 4-0 on Thursdays.
The Celts, tying the Wiz for the best home record in the East, are sure not that good at home in Playoff basketball... They don't have a true leader (Isaiah Thomas is out, but he still gives up as much or even more as dah Bulls have shown as he scores - so he's no answer to bad home-court playoff b-ball)
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The Celts, tying the Wiz for the best home record in the East, are sure not that good at home in Playoff basketball... They don't have a true leader (Isaiah Thomas is out, but he still gives up as much or even more as dah Bulls have shown as he scores - so he's no answer to bad home-court playoff b-ball)
Sir Charles Barkley on TNT at the Half, again defies the networks, the sponsors and any and all comers w/ the Plain Truth: "I'm going back to the hotel room and watch the hockey game - it's tied up one to one y'all !"
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Sir Charles Barkley on TNT at the Half, again defies the networks, the sponsors and any and all comers w/ the Plain Truth: "I'm going back to the hotel room and watch the hockey game - it's tied up one to one y'all !"
^^^ And as Sir Charles, the Emmy Award winner, correctly identifies that the NBA as a whole has become just that uninteresting & boring while it has devolved into a league without any parity.
Nobody cares to see even a Lecester City F.C take on an amateur of high school team...
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^^^ And as Sir Charles, the Emmy Award winner, correctly identifies that the NBA as a whole has become just that uninteresting & boring while it has devolved into a league without any parity.
Nobody cares to see even a Lecester City F.C take on an amateur of high school team...
Hockey is relatively whistle-free compared to sports like american football (that only has 13.5 minutes of actual playing time to begin with = BORING and Touch-football / Flag-football Rules today = super boring, especially as compared to Hockey's Hits - that many, many times draw blood !!) & b-ball.
Occasional stoppages occur, but the game flows more freely and also has far fewer commercial breaks — allowing average games to end in only 2 hours & 20 minutes.
That’s the second-fastest among the 4 major sports, only 5 minutes longer than an avg NBA game - despite b-ball having 12 fewer minutes of action.
There are an average of 81 stoppages in an NHL game, with "icing" and "offsides" = the most common culprits.
Knowing infractions allows for appreciating hockey, so get familiar w/ both:
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Hockey is relatively whistle-free compared to sports like american football (that only has 13.5 minutes of actual playing time to begin with = BORING and Touch-football / Flag-football Rules today = super boring, especially as compared to Hockey's Hits - that many, many times draw blood !!) & b-ball.
Occasional stoppages occur, but the game flows more freely and also has far fewer commercial breaks — allowing average games to end in only 2 hours & 20 minutes.
That’s the second-fastest among the 4 major sports, only 5 minutes longer than an avg NBA game - despite b-ball having 12 fewer minutes of action.
There are an average of 81 stoppages in an NHL game, with "icing" and "offsides" = the most common culprits.
Knowing infractions allows for appreciating hockey, so get familiar w/ both:
The rule prevents teams from shooting the puck all the way down ice to waste time while protecting a lead: It would disrupt the flow of the game, & watching a team shoot the puck all the way down the length of the ice repeatedly would get tiresome quickly.
So in 1937 the NHL implemented the icing rule.
According to the NHL rulebook, a player is not allowed to, “shoot, bat or deflect the puck from his own half of the ice beyond the goal line of the opposing team.”
That means a player must cross the red centerline before dumping the puck into the offensive zone. When the puck is hit across the rink, it counts as icing only if the defending team gets to the puck first. If a player on the team that iced the puck wins the race down the rink, no icing is called.
Players used to have to race all the way to the puck, but in 2013-14 season the NHL adopted, “hybrid icing,” which means the players only race to the defensive zone faceoff dots.
If icing is called, the puck returns to the offending team’s zone for a faceoff and the offending team must keep the same players on the ice => so this punishes players who ice the puck to catch their breath during a long shift.
“If you’re caught out there tired, that’s your punishment,” said the Las Vegas Golden Knights Senior Vice President Murray Craven, an 18-year NHL veteran. "The biggest advantage though," Craven said, "is being able to put whatever players the team wants on the ice in order to exploit the tired players who committed the icing."
“You get to catch a line that’s out there tired, and you put your top-line out there against them,” Craven said. “That’s where you can get a real advantage and create scoring opportunities.”
The major exception to the rule is when a team is shorthanded. When one team is on a power play, the penalized team is allowed to ice the puck without stopping play.
The referee can also waive icing if he determines a defensive player could have reached the puck before it crossed the goal line.
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Icing
The rule prevents teams from shooting the puck all the way down ice to waste time while protecting a lead: It would disrupt the flow of the game, & watching a team shoot the puck all the way down the length of the ice repeatedly would get tiresome quickly.
So in 1937 the NHL implemented the icing rule.
According to the NHL rulebook, a player is not allowed to, “shoot, bat or deflect the puck from his own half of the ice beyond the goal line of the opposing team.”
That means a player must cross the red centerline before dumping the puck into the offensive zone. When the puck is hit across the rink, it counts as icing only if the defending team gets to the puck first. If a player on the team that iced the puck wins the race down the rink, no icing is called.
Players used to have to race all the way to the puck, but in 2013-14 season the NHL adopted, “hybrid icing,” which means the players only race to the defensive zone faceoff dots.
If icing is called, the puck returns to the offending team’s zone for a faceoff and the offending team must keep the same players on the ice => so this punishes players who ice the puck to catch their breath during a long shift.
“If you’re caught out there tired, that’s your punishment,” said the Las Vegas Golden Knights Senior Vice President Murray Craven, an 18-year NHL veteran. "The biggest advantage though," Craven said, "is being able to put whatever players the team wants on the ice in order to exploit the tired players who committed the icing."
“You get to catch a line that’s out there tired, and you put your top-line out there against them,” Craven said. “That’s where you can get a real advantage and create scoring opportunities.”
The major exception to the rule is when a team is shorthanded. When one team is on a power play, the penalized team is allowed to ice the puck without stopping play.
The referee can also waive icing if he determines a defensive player could have reached the puck before it crossed the goal line.
The goal of every hockey team, obviously, is to put the puck in the net, but 1st the puck has to enter the offensive zone.
Hockey is the offense trying to get the puck in their offensive zone — and keep it there as long as possible — while the defense tries to get it out.
Players are not allowed to cross the blue line into their offensive-zone until the puck does. This is why players will commonly skate along the blue line, w/ 1 skate in & 1 skate out, until the puck crosses the blue line. A player is called offsides if both skates cross into the zone before the puck. Once the puck enters the zone, players can enter the offensive zone.
If the defense gets the puck out of the zone, every offensive player must clear out of the zone before bringing the puck back in = to avoid offsides.
Sometimes players will mistime their entry into the zone — skating slightly ahead of the puck — and get whistled for offsides. Other times, a player will fail to keep the puck inside the offensive-zone, letting the puck cross over the blue line.
Whenever offsides is called, the following faceoff takes place at the nearest neutral-zone faceoff dot.
There is an exception to a player hetting called offsides if both skates cross into the zone before the puck. Once the puck enters the zone, players can enter the offensive zone if a player controls the puck (think of a player skating backwards while completely controlling the puck across the blue line), and the puck enters the offensive-zone after the player's skates in which case 'offsides' is whistled off.
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Offsides
The goal of every hockey team, obviously, is to put the puck in the net, but 1st the puck has to enter the offensive zone.
Hockey is the offense trying to get the puck in their offensive zone — and keep it there as long as possible — while the defense tries to get it out.
Players are not allowed to cross the blue line into their offensive-zone until the puck does. This is why players will commonly skate along the blue line, w/ 1 skate in & 1 skate out, until the puck crosses the blue line. A player is called offsides if both skates cross into the zone before the puck. Once the puck enters the zone, players can enter the offensive zone.
If the defense gets the puck out of the zone, every offensive player must clear out of the zone before bringing the puck back in = to avoid offsides.
Sometimes players will mistime their entry into the zone — skating slightly ahead of the puck — and get whistled for offsides. Other times, a player will fail to keep the puck inside the offensive-zone, letting the puck cross over the blue line.
Whenever offsides is called, the following faceoff takes place at the nearest neutral-zone faceoff dot.
There is an exception to a player hetting called offsides if both skates cross into the zone before the puck. Once the puck enters the zone, players can enter the offensive zone if a player controls the puck (think of a player skating backwards while completely controlling the puck across the blue line), and the puck enters the offensive-zone after the player's skates in which case 'offsides' is whistled off.
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