The
Thunder have been on a tear, winning five straight games, four of which
have been by double figures. They also have perfect 11-0 straight-up
home record averaging 108.3 points per game. When we take a look at the
Magic and see they rank 24th in the NBA in defense, allowing 102 points
per game (104.5 on road), it most certainly looks like 205.5 points is
not problem for these two teams to put up tonight. Well, I don't think
so. Considering that this game is most likely going to be
an easy win for the Thunder, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant won't
play big minutes, especially since they travel to Denver and they're
playing 9th game in last 15 days tonight. That means the pace is not
going to be super fast and almost certainly they won't reach 102
possessions tonight, number they average at home.
Under is
6-2 in Thunder last 8 games as a favorite of 11 or greater, and 8-3 in
their last 11 as a home favorite of 11 or greater. Also, under is 4-0 in
Magic last 4 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater. In last 11
Thunder home games vs. a team with a road winning % lower than 0.400
under is 8-3. When Orlando play vs. a team with a winning home record 4
out of last 5 games went under the total. In last 19 games between these
two teams under is 13-6.
One more funny trend is that
under is 10-0 in Thunder games since Feb 10,2013 after Kevin Durant shot
better than 50% from the arc in their previous home game.
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
Phoenix
is starting strong game after game, they average 52.3 points in first
halves this season and in last 14 games, the Suns went over the 1st half
team total line 13 times. On the other hand, the Warriors are not
exactly a team that play great defense, especially in first halves. They
are giving up 51 points per game in 1st half on average.
0
Orlando Magic @ Oklahoma City Thunder
The
Thunder have been on a tear, winning five straight games, four of which
have been by double figures. They also have perfect 11-0 straight-up
home record averaging 108.3 points per game. When we take a look at the
Magic and see they rank 24th in the NBA in defense, allowing 102 points
per game (104.5 on road), it most certainly looks like 205.5 points is
not problem for these two teams to put up tonight. Well, I don't think
so. Considering that this game is most likely going to be
an easy win for the Thunder, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant won't
play big minutes, especially since they travel to Denver and they're
playing 9th game in last 15 days tonight. That means the pace is not
going to be super fast and almost certainly they won't reach 102
possessions tonight, number they average at home.
Under is
6-2 in Thunder last 8 games as a favorite of 11 or greater, and 8-3 in
their last 11 as a home favorite of 11 or greater. Also, under is 4-0 in
Magic last 4 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater. In last 11
Thunder home games vs. a team with a road winning % lower than 0.400
under is 8-3. When Orlando play vs. a team with a winning home record 4
out of last 5 games went under the total. In last 19 games between these
two teams under is 13-6.
One more funny trend is that
under is 10-0 in Thunder games since Feb 10,2013 after Kevin Durant shot
better than 50% from the arc in their previous home game.
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
Phoenix
is starting strong game after game, they average 52.3 points in first
halves this season and in last 14 games, the Suns went over the 1st half
team total line 13 times. On the other hand, the Warriors are not
exactly a team that play great defense, especially in first halves. They
are giving up 51 points per game in 1st half on average.
Minnesota
played last night in Memphis (101-93 vs Grizzlies) and it looks like
they have a bit of momentum going. They have won three of their last
four games with the only loss coming on the road in San Antonio vs the
Spurs. But still, they are not great road team having 5-8 road record
and they are not a team that plays well on back to back games, having
2-5 record on second night of back to back games this season.
Boston is on a 2 day rest and the Celtics are playing 3rd out of 5
straight home games tonight. They are 6-6 at home, winning four of their
last five home games. While I expect the Celtics to fight hard for a
win tonight, I see more value in betting the total.
The Celtics
are improving their defense, they are 5th best defensive team in the
NBA allowing 95.7 points per game, and in their last ten games, the
Celtics have given up only 92 points per game. Also, the under is 5-2 in
Celtics last seven games playing on 2 days rest and the under is 4-1 in
Timberwolves last five games playing on 0 days rest.
Kevin
Martin is expected to play tonight, but he's nursing a knee injury and
that is very important player for Wolves. Brandon Bass and Jared
Sullinger are both big and quick enough to play solid defense on Kevin
Love tonight, and Avery Bradley will surely match Ricky Rubio.
Boston is giving up a league low in three point field goals this
season, and the Wolves are the 12th best three point shooting team so
far this season. That means the Celtics will most likely defend well the
Wolves main weapon on offense...
LA Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks
The
Hawks have 14-10 O/U record so far this season, and the Lakers are at
13-10 O/U. While the Hawks have been very good at playing defense at
home, allowing 95.7 points per game (99.6 overall), I expect them to
give up some points in this one. The Lakers play fast, 100.8 possessions
per game on the road, and with no point guard, they don't have other
option than playing fast...
The Lakers road defense is anything
but good, and while trying to push up the pace they will be giving up a
ton of points. The Lakers are allowing 106.5 points per game on the
road including 88-85 win @ Bobcats and if it weren't that game that
average would be closer to 110 points per game.
These teams
played once this season in Los Angeles, and the Lakers won that game
105-103. The game tonight can easily end with even more points in my
opinion. The over is 6-1 in Hawks last seven games, and 5-2 in Lakers
last seven. Also, the over is 28-13 in Hawks last 41 games as a favorite
of 5-10 points, and the over is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 as a road
underdog of 5-10 points and 21-8 in Lakers last 29 as a road underdog...
0
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Boston Celtics
Minnesota
played last night in Memphis (101-93 vs Grizzlies) and it looks like
they have a bit of momentum going. They have won three of their last
four games with the only loss coming on the road in San Antonio vs the
Spurs. But still, they are not great road team having 5-8 road record
and they are not a team that plays well on back to back games, having
2-5 record on second night of back to back games this season.
Boston is on a 2 day rest and the Celtics are playing 3rd out of 5
straight home games tonight. They are 6-6 at home, winning four of their
last five home games. While I expect the Celtics to fight hard for a
win tonight, I see more value in betting the total.
The Celtics
are improving their defense, they are 5th best defensive team in the
NBA allowing 95.7 points per game, and in their last ten games, the
Celtics have given up only 92 points per game. Also, the under is 5-2 in
Celtics last seven games playing on 2 days rest and the under is 4-1 in
Timberwolves last five games playing on 0 days rest.
Kevin
Martin is expected to play tonight, but he's nursing a knee injury and
that is very important player for Wolves. Brandon Bass and Jared
Sullinger are both big and quick enough to play solid defense on Kevin
Love tonight, and Avery Bradley will surely match Ricky Rubio.
Boston is giving up a league low in three point field goals this
season, and the Wolves are the 12th best three point shooting team so
far this season. That means the Celtics will most likely defend well the
Wolves main weapon on offense...
LA Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks
The
Hawks have 14-10 O/U record so far this season, and the Lakers are at
13-10 O/U. While the Hawks have been very good at playing defense at
home, allowing 95.7 points per game (99.6 overall), I expect them to
give up some points in this one. The Lakers play fast, 100.8 possessions
per game on the road, and with no point guard, they don't have other
option than playing fast...
The Lakers road defense is anything
but good, and while trying to push up the pace they will be giving up a
ton of points. The Lakers are allowing 106.5 points per game on the
road including 88-85 win @ Bobcats and if it weren't that game that
average would be closer to 110 points per game.
These teams
played once this season in Los Angeles, and the Lakers won that game
105-103. The game tonight can easily end with even more points in my
opinion. The over is 6-1 in Hawks last seven games, and 5-2 in Lakers
last seven. Also, the over is 28-13 in Hawks last 41 games as a favorite
of 5-10 points, and the over is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 as a road
underdog of 5-10 points and 21-8 in Lakers last 29 as a road underdog...
Blazers @ Cavs one of the best games i watched this season in the NBA... Impressed with Lillard and Kyrie, and so nice when you actually win while watching great game
0
Blazers @ Cavs one of the best games i watched this season in the NBA... Impressed with Lillard and Kyrie, and so nice when you actually win while watching great game
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