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Rarely do I say Vegas knows more than I do but they must know something w/ Kings vs.Wizards. WRITEUP

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Posted: #101
GOOD JOB BUD ....

 
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Posted: #102
good stuff man.. keep  it up
 
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Posted: #103
On the pacers tonight for a "comfy" win. Good luck scal 
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Wow, Knicks have gone to +2 on Sportsbook essentially making it a Moneyline. I really shouldn't be surprised. Knicks lines move with the wind. They are a national team making them a public team for betting.

+3 on 5 dimes and 

+2.5 with reduced juice -105 on Bovada. 

Not sure if I am going to write this game up as many here have already decided for themselves given all the postings I see in the forum.

Given the line movement, a lot has to do with their winning streak and the Pacers recent lackadaisical play but the real mover of this line has been the mainstream media press of the Phil Jackson hiring.

He is a name that is associated with Champions, the most in NBA history as a coach and to see his face plastered on every sports show  ith the Knicks logo behind it the day before this game was a definite line mover (it actually opened at 4.5 according to beginner boy on Betonline.com).

4.5 and 2 are very different lines as we saw in the Kings Wiz game (even though points ultimately didn't matter in that one), but if this settles at 2, it is, as you know, demanding an outright win from Knicks backers. No cushion there against a 50 win team vs. a team 13 games under .500 which really their should be, but unlike the Kings game this line can only go down and has already.


Call me crazy, Scal, but I see a Knicks blowout here. This is such a great spot for them, even with the media circus and the hiring of Jackson, etc... They are rested, ready and Indiana has shown no signs of life. Do we really think today is the day they are gonna start playing like the old pacers? I don't know about you but I have a hard time believing teams that are in a funk (other than Miami, of course) can just turn it on! Also, would love to hear your thoughts on Lakers as that line is up to 13.5 again and I'm thinking of buying out.
 
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Posted: #105
@lock @imrans @rr 

@BB-

The problem with the game is the line, first off. Phil is not on the court and nothing has changed with regard to the roster. Is Phil worth what is now a 2.5 point drop over a key number of four off the first day after his signing? An argument could be made that first game, with all the fanfare he is. But his real worth is over the long term creating a roster. So to cough up 2.5 (I know you got 4.5 but this is for the rest of us) and maybe even another half up to 3 points from opening is too much.

That line opened at 4.5 with the pacers lazy play and the Knicks winning streak included. But it opened during all the Jackson fanfare and in came Knicks backers in herds.

So I have a problem with the cushion of 4.5 now long gone as well as ML value if you think the Knicks win outright, and you do.

Secondly, the Pacers outclass the Knicks from top to bottom outside of Melo and those difference are quite stark. At virtually every position outside of forward, the Knicks are at a disadvantage. 

The pacers showed this in two games this year. One game, they tore them limb from limb with a 28 point win 1/16 and the other was made possible by Knick stupidity fouling George on a three point attempt after which the pacers went on to burn Knick backers even getting six to lose by 7 on 11/20.

The one guy that scares me here is Lance Stephenson. He is a Brooklyn native and loves to torch the Knjcks. He went off for 28 on 10-17 shooting last game and the Knicks don't really have anyone to guard him effectively.

Another point that is sprinkled throughout the forum by posters: The Knicks beat the dregs of the league in this six game winning streak. The absolute bottom: jazz, Sixers, bucks, celtics - all teams willingly tanking. Their one win of quality was at the T-Wolves who they blindsided as +350 ML dogs.

You have to go all the way back to January 13th to find a win against a team over .500 in the Suns and that was a 2 point victory in OT.

Lastly, the Pacers big problem lies with Hibbert and his play. It's been fairly bad of late. But I looked back at the last two Pacer wins and saw that he had ho-him games of 11 and 6 and 8 and 8 and didn't play a major factor in either one. So if he doesn't come to play tonight, the Pacers have shown they can offset it.


Another point. I don't like the rest the Knicks got. They were on quite a roll for 10 days winning 6 in those 10 and now they come off a 4 game layoff. You have to think there was a positive mindset but perhaps they were a bit too happy proving very little winning 6 in by far the easiest stretch in their schedule.

Now the Pacers have basically played street ball in toying with the Sixers for two games (where they were underwhelming) but still it allowed them to have their gears turning as they come into NY for a big spot against a rival? The Knicks? They were watching a press conference most likely.

I'll say this too, the Knicks making to playoffs is very important but so is the number 1 seed to the pacers and how many more screw ups by Miami can they expect? It was because they didn't have the number 1 seed that forced them to play for all the marbles in Miami.

Is the game big for the Pacers too?

Let's hear it from the players:

 Paul George- it's going to be a good game...we have to bring it. I still consider them a good team and they always give us a run for our money.

Frank Vogel - It's a tough game in a tough stretch. It's a different kind of feel than beating a team on a 20 game losing streak.

They're playing great basketball. Anytime you go to NY and it's on ESPN it's going to have a different feel than out other games with them.

Ian Mahinmi - it's going to give us a real playoff atmosphere before it starts. It's on us to turn on that playoff mode.

The problems with Roy addressed - We really want to get Roy engaged because the paint is where games are won. we want to get him back where he was.




Big game, bright lights but I had to temper the Knick love in the forum.

If this line gets to 1.5 and the Knick lovers may send it there, I'll be forced to back the Pacers.

This game is only 2.5 stars of 5 if I had a rating. The last two have been 4's. If the Knicks win, you will be right BB I can only see a blowout but this line is soft, very soft and I have to give credence to the points above when making a pick. Arguments for both sides but right now I lean Pacers as the line falls.

Haven't been able to even look at the Lakers game but the line is getting ridiculous. Good lord.


 
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Posted: #106
Like the Wiz Kings, this is a tough one so just know this isn't The Jazz being served at the Garden with a side of mash where the Knicks can easily cover 7. A challenging game to cap hence the rating but it is on Espn and it will likely be a dogfight so I hope my write-up helped those interested. But the line now allows for a dogfight. The Knicks will prove they can make a run at the 8 spot with a win here. If not, they are in big trouble as the Hawks are winning everything under the sun. Big game for the Knicks against top line competition and a big game for the Pacers to reset themselves.

I wish it was against the heat because in that spot, I'd undoubtedly back the Knicks with the points.
 
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Posted: #107
Nets laying 6 to a vastly improved Bobcat squad?
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

@lock @imrans @rr 

@BB-

The problem with the game is the line, first off. Phil is not on the court and nothing has changed with regard to the roster. Is Phil worth what is now a 2.5 point drop over a key number of four off the first day after his signing? An argument could be made that first game, with all the fanfare he is. But his real worth is over the long term creating a roster. So to cough up 2.5 (I know you got 4.5 but this is for the rest of us) and maybe even another half up to 3 points from opening is too much.

That line opened at 4.5 with the pacers lazy play and the Knicks winning streak included. But it opened during all the Jackson fanfare and in came Knicks backers in herds.

So I have a problem with the cushion of 4.5 now long gone as well as ML value if you think the Knicks win outright, and you do.

Secondly, the Pacers outclass the Knicks from top to bottom outside of Melo and those difference are quite stark. At virtually every position outside of forward, the Knicks are at a disadvantage. 

The pacers showed this in two games this year. One game, they tore them limb from limb with a 28 point win 1/16 and the other was made possible by Knick stupidity fouling George on a three point attempt after which the pacers went on to burn Knick backers even getting six to lose by 7 on 11/20.

The one guy that scares me here is Lance Stephenson. He is a Brooklyn native and loves to torch the Knjcks. He went off for 28 on 10-17 shooting last game and the Knicks don't really have anyone to guard him effectively.

Another point that is sprinkled throughout the forum by posters: The Knicks beat the dregs of the league in this six game winning streak. The absolute bottom: jazz, Sixers, bucks, celtics - all teams willingly tanking. Their one win of quality was at the T-Wolves who they blindsided as +350 ML dogs.

You have to go all the way back to January 13th to find a win against a team over .500 in the Suns and that was a 2 point victory in OT.

Lastly, the Pacers big problem lies with Hibbert and his play. It's been fairly bad of late. But I looked back at the last two Pacer wins and saw that he had ho-him games of 11 and 6 and 8 and 8 and didn't play a major factor in either one. So if he doesn't come to play tonight, the Pacers have shown they can offset it.


Another point. I don't like the rest the Knicks got. They were on quite a roll for 10 days winning 6 in those 10 and now they come off a 4 game layoff. You have to think there was a positive mindset but perhaps they were a bit too happy proving very little winning 6 in by far the easiest stretch in their schedule.

Now the Pacers have basically played street ball in toying with the Sixers for two games (where they were underwhelming) but still it allowed them to have their gears turning as they come into NY for a big spot against a rival? The Knicks? They were watching a press conference most likely.

I'll say this too, the Knicks making to playoffs is very important but so is the number 1 seed to the pacers and how many more screw ups by Miami can they expect? It was because they didn't have the number 1 seed that forced them to play for all the marbles in Miami.

Is the game big for the Pacers too?

Let's hear it from the players:

 Paul George- it's going to be a good game...we have to bring it. I still consider them a good team and they always give us a run for our money.

Frank Vogel - It's a tough game in a tough stretch. It's a different kind of feel than beating a team on a 20 game losing streak.

They're playing great basketball. Anytime you go to NY and it's on ESPN it's going to have a different feel than out other games with them.

Ian Mahinmi - it's going to give us a real playoff atmosphere before it starts. It's on us to turn on that playoff mode.

The problems with Roy addressed - We really want to get Roy engaged because the paint is where games are won. we want to get him back where he was.




Big game, bright lights but I had to temper the Knick love in the forum.

If this line gets to 1.5 and the Knick lovers may send it there, I'll be forced to back the Pacers.

This game is only 2.5 stars of 5 if I had a rating. The last two have been 4's. If the Knicks win, you will be right BB I can only see a blowout but this line is soft, very soft and I have to give credence to the points above when making a pick. Arguments for both sides but right now I lean Pacers as the line falls.

Haven't been able to even look at the Lakers game but the line is getting ridiculous. Good lord.


Great points. I will say however, the line didn't open at 4.5. All major books opened it at 2.5. Don't follow betonline's opening lines, there idiots. All online books other than betonline opened at 2.5 and 80% of vegas sportsbooks opened at 2.5 besides the rare 3 at a few places. Also in regards to the note about rest, Knicks have gone 3-0 ATS covering by an average of 14.83 points on 3 or more days rest this year, all games against the Nets, Spurs, and Grizzlies. No scrubs. 

 
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Posted: #109
Pacers down to -1.5/ ML -125 now.
 
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Posted: #110
Thanks for all the great information Scal. I know you don't cap totals but both you and LC seem to see a dogfight, which would favor the under here. Of course, if you get a lot of fouls and free throws, because of the physical play then the over has a chance.
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Great points. I will say however, the line didn't open at 4.5. All major books opened it at 2.5. Don't follow betonline's opening lines, there idiots. All online books other than betonline opened at 2.5 and 80% of vegas sportsbooks opened at 2.5 besides the rare 3 at a few places. Also in regards to the note about rest, Knicks have gone 3-0 ATS covering by an average of 14.83 points on 3 or more days rest this year, all games against the Nets, Spurs, and Grizzlies. No scrubs. 


Those are my kinda idiots then! BB knows who to hang with when grabbing a line.


We have to dig a but deeper when looking at that 3-0 ATS on days rest. I posted 2 of those three games so I know them well.

In the Nets game, they were on a 9 game losing streak at 3-13, and going to Brooklyn against their crosstown rival. The desperation there is quite distinct from the attitude here where they wallowed in misery for 4 off days as the season slipped away. They covered with 30 point bashing.

The Memphis game had them coming in losing 6 of 7 having time to stew over an OT loss to, coincidently, the lowly Kings. They had 6 days off and even at that, they blew a late 6 point lead in the fourth as Mike miller of all people torched them for a season high and they covered by .5/1. But that was a sweet line and the value over 4 was evident as the books got a but generous.

The last game against the spurs they just lost 4 of 5 including an embarrassing home and home to the raptors who at the time were leading the atlantic when the Knicks actually had hopes they were going to win their division. They had 5 days off. It was also the first game after New Year's. We know the Knicks had nothing to celebrate and the Spurs looked unprepared and tired. 

Here they have won 6 straight against the worst of the worst and likely have gotten a bit full of themselves. That remains to be seen but the 3-0 ATS on extra rest can be discounted heavily if not thrown out completely given the above.

I can tell you, the pacers will not come unprepared against a rival on Espn with a 1 seed in the balance and with heavy criticism about their play of late. 

And the line now at -1.5 requires an outright win. That is a tall order against a 50 win team.


 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Thanks for all the great information Scal. I know you don't cap totals but both you and LC seem to see a dogfight, which would favor the under here. Of course, if you get a lot of fouls and free throws, because of the physical play then the over has a chance.

Interesting take. I can't play it or even Comment on the O/U
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Pacers down to -1.5/ ML -125 now.

Thanks. That leaves me one option.

Haven't even looked at the nets game. 
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Thanks. That leaves me one option.

Haven't even looked at the nets game. 

I know you dont do totals, but the line at 193 seems right on, yet too much at the same time. Pacers are struggling (if thats the word) and on the road, so I expect them to buckle down on defense. Knicks defense is average at best, but I expect them to have a bit more energy tonight due to "extra" media coverage and rest the last few days. I really dont see either team getting to 98, which is the minimum it will take to push this game over.

Thoughts (even though totals arent your thing)?
 
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Posted: #115
Nice write up
 
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Posted: #116

AS PER VEGASINSIDER LINE OPENED AT -4.5 NO -2.5  AND LINE DROPPING IN FAVOR OF INDY WITH PUBLIC ON INDY... AND UR LEANING INDY? THIS IS RIDICULOUS.. THE LINE MOVEMENT SAYS IT ALL.. INDY ONLY FAVORED -1.5 NOW? BIG REVENGE GAME FOR KNICKS.. GOOD WINNING STREAK.. INDY PLAYING NOT TO THERE POTENTIAL LATELY.. GIVE ME KNICKS HERE.. LINE MOVEMENT IS KEY

 

 
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:


I know you dont do totals, but the line at 193 seems right on, yet too much at the same time. Pacers are struggling (if thats the word) and on the road, so I expect them to buckle down on defense. Knicks defense is average at best, but I expect them to have a bit more energy tonight due to "extra" media coverage and rest the last few days. I really dont see either team getting to 98, which is the minimum it will take to push this game over.

Thoughts (even though totals arent your thing)?

I think your analysis right there is far more than I could offer


 
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Posted: #118
Very very intelligent thread, props to u guys scal, LC, BB.
 
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Posted: #119
How do you know the public is on Indy what is your source?
 
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Posted: #120
Pacers -1 my book
 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by CARBEA4321:

Pacers -1 my book
-110
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Great points. I will say however, the line didn't open at 4.5. All major books opened it at 2.5. Don't follow betonline's opening lines, there idiots. All online books other than betonline opened at 2.5 and 80% of vegas sportsbooks opened at 2.5 besides the rare 3 at a few places. Also in regards to the note about rest, Knicks have gone 3-0 ATS covering by an average of 14.83 points on 3 or more days rest this year, all games against the Nets, Spurs, and Grizzlies. No scrubs. 


This is an interesting conversation to have. As someone mentioned here vegas insider had the line opening at -4.5 and the total at 195. Both of which were available to me for about 2 minutes:) I've read other knowledgable cappers say, and I tend to agree with this, that with all the online/offshore betting books will release these early lines which they generally believe are correct (at a minimum loss, since there is a cap on what you can bet) and let the public hammer the lines into shape for them. It's less work/hassle for them and it doesn't really affect the bottom line that much.
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by Hoops1487:

Nice write up
 
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whenever i spot your writeups, i always enjoy yours. doesn't matter if yours are wrong. checking someone's solid reasoning is really fun. GL to your play always
 
 
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Posted: #125
Quote Originally Posted by oneplayaday22:

AS PER VEGASINSIDER LINE OPENED AT -4.5 NO -2.5  AND LINE DROPPING IN FAVOR OF INDY WITH PUBLIC ON INDY... AND UR LEANING INDY? THIS IS RIDICULOUS.. THE LINE MOVEMENT SAYS IT ALL.. INDY ONLY FAVORED -1.5 NOW? BIG REVENGE GAME FOR KNICKS.. GOOD WINNING STREAK.. INDY PLAYING NOT TO THERE POTENTIAL LATELY.. GIVE ME KNICKS HERE.. LINE MOVEMENT IS KEY

 


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