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Secret of NBA totals - Friday

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by lucky5354:

Which 4 or 5 games u playing?

Detroit
Memphis
Utah
Knicks
Charlotte
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by TheGameCPT:

I usually play NBA totals only, because it's easier than spread point. 
I have my own formula to calculate the Totals which is very simple, everybody can do it, but I prefer not to reveal the method. 

The formula is base on few key points as followed - 
1. Deviation Point
2. My experience and the "feel" of the game.
3. Oddsmaker's perspective on public betting trend. 

Again, I will not reveal the method to people here, but, I will post everyday's Over/Under picks for everyone.

My goal is to keep everybody happy and hope everyone can make money from my picks no matter how much you bet.

So, today's pick - 

Charlotte Under 196

Brooklyn Over 193 – 
Brooklyn can score now, against Suns’s bad defense, game goes Over.

Houston Under 200.5 – 
not so sure, if Boston continue  having trouble scoring and play tougher defense, game will go Under.

Utah Over 193 – strong pick.
Utah’s defense is only good at home.

Spurs Under 189 – strong pick.
Memphis at home, of course they will control the tempo. Spurs will have tough night to score like the Knicks yesterday.

New Orleans Under 185 – strong pick.
Line already moved down 2.5 points.  Love and Barea are out. With 182.5, the number is aggressive.

Chicago Under 191.5 – strong pick. 
No melo, no double-team from Bulls, no ball movement from Knicks

Detroit Over 197 – strong pick.
line already moved up 1.5 point. Milwaukee like pushing the pace, young Detroit can score as well.

Denver Over 206 – 
Irving is game-time decision tonight, if he is out the game likely won’t go Over.

Portland Under 199 – strong pick. 
Back to Back, with Aldridge, Batum, Matthews, Lillard played 42 mins, how many can they score tonight?

OKC Under 214 – 
Huge public betting, people of course will bet Over. But the truth is, Sefolosha and OKC team defense will give Kobe lots of trouble.







 
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Posted: #53
gl
 
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Posted: #54
good luck
BACK PATTING and KISSING threads are like passing HAM SANDWICHES around over and over-wall
 
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Posted: #55
parlay them all gl
 
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Posted: #56
i'm trying to understand your picks, so you post 11 picks, but will only play 4-5 . how are you going to keep track of a record? so if everything wins its 11-0, if u lose are u going to stat u only play 4-5 and count that? repost your plays to keep a record. or its its BS. PlZ post your plays in this cast its

det over 197
mem under 189
ultah over 193
knicks under 191.5
char under 196


 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by asian_shadow:

parlay them all gl

I don't recommend people play parlay with more than 3 teams.

More than 3 selections are sucker bet.

2 is optimum.
 
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Posted: #58
Good luck. 
 
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Posted: #59
CPT what's the mean you use for your calculation?
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by Hungry11:

i'm trying to understand your picks, so you post 11 picks, but will only play 4-5 . how are you going to keep track of a record? so if everything wins its 11-0, if u lose are u going to stat u only play 4-5 and count that? repost your plays to keep a record. or its its BS. PlZ post your plays in this cast its

det over 197
mem under 189
ultah over 193
knicks under 191.5
char under 196



POD = 6 - 1 from Jan 9
________________________

Houston Under - 202

Utah Over -192.5

Memphis Under - 189

Chicago Under - 192.5

Detroit Over - 197

Portland Under - 198.5
 
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Posted: #61
 
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Posted: #62
No melo? He served his suspension last night, he should be playing
 
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Posted: #63
Final picks for me only.

If you like other games, choose whatever you like.

Good luck.


POD = 6 - 1 from Jan 9
________________________

Houston Under - 202

Utah Over - 192.5

Memphis Under - 189

Chicago Under - 192.5

Detroit Over - 197

Portland Under - 198.5
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by TheGameCPT:


POD = 6 - 1 from Jan 9
________________________

Houston Under - 202

Utah Over -192.5

Memphis Under - 189

Chicago Under - 192.5

Detroit Over - 197

Portland Under - 198.5

CPT,

I SUGGEST YOU POST YOUR LEANS BUT DO NOT HINT STRONG PICK OR BET EARLY UNTIL GAME TIME OR WHEN THEY BECOME OFFICIAL. BECAUSE NOW YOU ARE BETTING OPPOSITE OF THE HOU TOTAL WHICH EVERYONE WILL QUESTION LATER.

 
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Posted: #65

CPT,

ALSO FORGOT TO MENTION, DON'T PUT A NUMBER TIL IT BECOMES OFFICIAL. FOR EXAMPLE, MEMPHIS OPEN @188 AND YOU MENTION BET EARLY BUT NOW THE OFFICIAL LINE IS 189 AND IT LANDS ON 189 IT IS A PUSH BUT FOR SOME OF US IT IS A LOSS..............GET THE PICTURE?

GOOD LUCK, BTW

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by mjm1012:

CPT,

ALSO FORGOT TO MENTION, DON'T PUT A NUMBER TIL IT BECOMES OFFICIAL. FOR EXAMPLE, MEMPHIS OPEN @188 AND YOU MENTION BET EARLY BUT NOW THE OFFICIAL LINE IS 189 AND IT LANDS ON 189 IT IS A PUSH BUT FOR SOME OF US IT IS A LOSS..............GET THE PICTURE?

GOOD LUCK, BTW


You are right, I will make thoses adjustment from now on.

Thx, bro.

Btw, the Chicago line moved from 191 to 192.5 in 8 mins....

I'm thinking go Chicago Over 192.5...
 
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Posted: #67
BOL guys!
 
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Posted: #68

what is ur fianal play

 
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Posted: #69
POD = 6 - 1 from Jan 9
________________________

Final Play


Houston Under - 202

Utah Over -192.5

Memphis Under - 189

Chicago Under - 193

Detroit Over - 197

Portland Under - 198.5
 
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Posted: #70
GL, will be back late this evening.
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by TheGameCPT:

POD = 6 - 1 from Jan 9
________________________

Final Play
WOW Memphis U down to 187
GL everyone


Houston Under - 202

Utah Over -192.5

Memphis Under - 189

Chicago Under - 193

Detroit Over - 197

Portland Under - 198.5
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by TheGameCPT:

All the oddsmaker's totals point are calculated with the deviation point and power rating system before they generate the final result.

If the raw point is 190, then they will add or subtract few more points base on the injuries, game history, public betting tendency.

That's how I handicap my picks.

   

No disrespect but look at the average points for home team and away team. I think they also factor in injuries. Same reason go against teams on back to back travel games doesn't work since the 90's.
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by svedka64:


No disrespect but look at the average points for home team and away team. I think they also factor in injuries. Same reason go against teams on back to back travel games doesn't work since the 90's.

You have no idea how I pick Over/Under.

GL
 
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Posted: #74
GL CPT! Tailed you with SAS under and CHI under 

BOL! 
 
 
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Posted: #75
you from COMPTON???
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