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The Spurs are Done!

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Posted: #51
OP IS AN IDIOT
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


Nothing has changed. I never said Spurs would not win a game or two, did I? In fact, I was proven right. Parker has so many miles on him that he got hurt (and is most likely out) and LA is not going to improve on his mediocre showing (especially on one leg:) The Spurs had one really good quarter (4th) when they went for the kill and the Rockets did not respond. No big deal. Even if it is 2-2 heading back to SA, Spurs will lose game 5!

The problem Bb, is when you have thread titles like this (believe me I know!) if you don't SWEEP, you were wrong, even if the Rockets win the series!
 
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Posted: #54

BB.....

No worries.....I still think we are right.....This Houston team still has a trick up their sleeve and so does D'antoni. Not an ounce of panic on his face even while they were losing last night.....He knows there is a long way to go and we have just gotten started.

This series will be tied 2-2 after tomorrow night !!!  

 
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Posted: #55
Begginerboy have you paid close attention to this series price after each game?  Looking at the series price now I am absolutely shock compare when series was tie 1-1.  The series price before game 1, the series price tie 1-1 and series price now tie 2-2 has drastic changes indicating how the book favor Spurs before series began then the book seem to favor Houston when series tie 1-1 and now the book favor Spurs tie 2-2.  Seems like descent value if you still like Houston to win series at this point.  Begginerboy please tell me what your take on these series prices adjustment made by the book throughout series and what's your overall take now on this series after seeing 4 games play and if you still like Houston a lot to win this series.
 
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Posted: #56
I like to hear your take on the above as well Scalabrine.
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by plays4all:

I know you didn't ask for my take, but that's the best advice you're going to get regarding the series and series price changes. So I hope you take it all into consideration.

Houston will win this series. It's obvious and it's been obvious since before the series ever started. And stayed obvious throughout the series. If spurs were to win the series they would have won tonight. And/or they would have won game 1 at home. lol

I don't know about obvious but if anything is so obvious to you, you should just bet all you money on Houston to win the series why have to go through the risk of every game not only predicting who's going win but also must win against the spread as well, if there's no threat to this and so obvious I suggest you just putting all your $ making this ONE BET now that on Houston to win series.  Why do you got to go through so many bets with all that extra risk ATS?  I still like Houston and think they still have a descent chance of winning series or advancing but I'm not thinking its obvious cause I would bet everything I have and not bother with having win each games individually throughout the series.
 
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Posted: #58
Ok plays4all pls stop now, just let me hear Begginerboy and scalabrine take on all the stuff I asked.  Not going go argue with you cause some of the things you say just makes my head shake.  Have you listen and read some of the things you're saying.  GL to you and do whatever is obvious to you, now pls let me hear the opinions of the people I cared and want to listen to.
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Chauster:

Begginerboy have you paid close attention to this series price after each game?  Looking at the series price now I am absolutely shock compare when series was tie 1-1.  The series price before game 1, the series price tie 1-1 and series price now tie 2-2 has drastic changes indicating how the book favor Spurs before series began then the book seem to favor Houston when series tie 1-1 and now the book favor Spurs tie 2-2.  Seems like descent value if you still like Houston to win series at this point.  Begginerboy please tell me what your take on these series prices adjustment made by the book throughout series and what's your overall take now on this series after seeing 4 games play and if you still like Houston a lot to win this series.

Don't be shocked.

The series price is simply a reflection of the remaining moneylines.

So you say 1-1 (Houston was about -115 I believe or maybe +110) should be equal to the series line at  2-2?

Right? No. This is another one of the book's archaric line setting methods in full view.

The reason San Antonio is now -170 and Houston is +155 is that San Antonio's wins are more valuable than Houston's because they have home court, particularly a Game 7 on their own floor of it gets there.
So their win to get close to 4 matters more.

So tonight San Antonio is -230 to win. And they'll be around the same in a possible Game 7.

If you got San Antonio -110 (about even like after 1-1), you'd hammer it into oblivion instead of playing two -230 ML's in Game 5 and 7 which pays about even (+105).

But you don't know that they will win (the next two, lose this one and win the next two or win lose win). There is a price for that! And that price goes up the closer the Spurs get to winning the series. And the premium really kicks in with the Game 7 home court.

The exact same thing happened the year the Spurs went up 3-2 (2013) on the Heat but the last two games were in Miami. Miami was stil about -270 to win the series DOWN 3-2. Allen hit that 3 that year and the Heat won. Each game had a pretty big ML too.

You were getting charged a big premium on the current lines and therefore the series ML was weighted towards the spreads in the individual games. 

That is why the series is no longer -110/-115 Houston. Make sense?


 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Don't be shocked.

The series price is simply a reflection of the remaining moneylines.

So you say 1-1 (Houston was about -115 I believe or maybe +110) should be equal to the series line at  2-2?

Right? No. This is another one of the book's archaric line setting methods in full view.

The reason San Antonio is now -170 and Houston is +155 is that San Antonio's wins are more valuable than Houston's because they have home court, particularly a Game 7 on their own floor of it gets there.
So their win to get close to 4 matters more.

So tonight San Antonio is -230 to win. And they'll be around the same in a possible Game 7.

If you got San Antonio -110 (about even like after 1-1), you'd hammer it into oblivion instead of playing two -230 ML's in Game 5 and 7 which pays about even (+105).

But you don't know that they will win (the next two, lose this one and win the next two or win lose win). There is a price for that! And that price goes up the closer the Spurs get to winning the series. And the premium really kicks in with the Game 7 home court.

The exact same thing happened the year the Spurs went up 3-2 (2013) on the Heat but the last two games were in Miami. Miami was stil about -270 to win the series DOWN 3-2. Allen hit that 3 that year and the Heat won. Each game had a pretty big ML too.

You were getting charged a big premium on the current lines and therefore the series ML was weighted towards the spreads in the individual games. 

That is why the series is no longer -110/-115 Houston. Make sense?



I get this series is best out of 3 now and Spurs having 2 home games and game 7 at home for Spurs means a bit more than game 5 at home but if I think Houston still has a descent chance in winning this series what is better thing to do value wise?  Should I bet Houston to win series or is it better to bet Houston moneyline on each indivual game here on out?
 
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Posted: #61
Well in my opinion, they have to win game 5 to win the series. End of story. I feel they won't go 2-0 with a game 7 in SA.

Or to simplify things you could just bet the series line because you like the price and that is care-free betting (that is you don't have to what which of the next 3 they'll win).
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Well in my opinion, they have to win game 5 to win the series. End of story. I feel they won't go 2-0 with a game 7 in SA.

Or to simplify things you could just bet the series line because you like the price and that is care-free betting (that is you don't have to what which of the next 3 they'll win).


Who do you see winning Game 5? It was strange how much SA went away from what worked so well from them in Game 3. I know not all of Houston's role players should be on fire as much as they were in Game 4 but they are a good outside shooting team overall.

I'm hoping to see SA run Houston off the 3 point line a little more in Game 5.
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by BeeThousand:



Who do you see winning Game 5? It was strange how much SA went away from what worked so well from them in Game 3. I know not all of Houston's role players should be on fire as much as they were in Game 4 but they are a good outside shooting team overall.

I'm hoping to see SA run Houston off the 3 point line a little more in Game 5.

I didn't see em running them off the 3 pt line last night. AND even when they did, ANderson and Harden were still hitting them.
 
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Posted: #64
Houston Rockets center Nenê will miss the remainder of the postseason with a left adductor tear.  The Rockets medical staff is currently reviewing treatment options.  An update will be provided once a decision is made.

On the surface, this is not good news for the Rockets. He was very important because he is one of two real big men they have. They will have to rely on small ball even more. Will that help or hurt against the bigger Spurs? We will see.
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


I didn't see em running them off the 3 pt line last night. AND even when they did, ANderson and Harden were still hitting them.


That's what I'm saying, they ran them off the line n Game 3 (only 22 3 point attempts for Houston) but did a very poor job of it in Game 4. Houston's biggest threat is outside shooting, if the Spurs can at least limit that somewhat they should be able to win this series.

As for Nene being injured, that means more minute for Ryan Anderson at the center spot and he's been murdering the Spurs for 3 of the past 4 games.
 
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Posted: #66

This is why series bets are such a gamble BB (although I know you didn't actually bet this)

Small ball did them in.

Beverly morphed back into average/below average Pat after the playoff game of his life returning from his sister's funeral.

Anderson - ZERO POINTS and a minus THIRTY.

This is on top of losing Nene as you noted where the series took a turn for the worse (so critical as a veteran presence and a rim protector against SA's bigs and undervalued despite his lackluster lines)

Then you get the star player out other players step up angle maximizing the outcome.


They showed their hand. It was the only hand they had to play. And Pop crushed em like pocket aces vs. a 7/2 bluffer.

Moving on. I'll be very interested in the coming days. Be sure to post a general series assessment, however brief. We all want to read it. 

 
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Posted: #67

Grandfather's funeral that is....

The point of the above post. You simply can't see the twists and turns these teams take,  health-wise and philosophy-wise early on. We have to stay away from these series bets. Even I run to them.

 
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Posted: #68

SA +10 Game 1

SA+600 GS -900 are the series lines.

 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Grandfather's funeral that is....

The point of the above post. You simply can't see the twists and turns these teams take,  health-wise and philosophy-wise early on. We have to stay away from these series bets. Even I run to them.


That and this: "Then you get the star player out other players step up angle maximizing the outcome." Unbelievable how Pop maximized that angle, not only using it to win game 5, but then keeping the Rockets guessing until game 6, and just when the Rockets relax, his guys pounce and go for the kill. It was textbook psychological warfare, and the mentally weak Rockets (or Harden) fell for it. 

The good news (for gamblers) is that the Warriors just saw what happened, and will be ready on Sunday. Warriors win by DD with or without Leonard. The only angles worth considering for that game are 1) how the Spurs humiliated the Warriors at home in the first game of the regular season, and 2) how the Warriors lost game of the WCF to the Thunder last year (and the uphill clime they had because of it).

 
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Posted: #70
It should say:

 how the Warriors lost game one of the WCF to the Thunder last year (and the uphill clime they had because of it).
 
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Posted: #71
warriors are good but this league is to fixed i wont even be shocked anymore if they beat warriors lol
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


That and this: "Then you get the star player out other players step up angle maximizing the outcome." Unbelievable how Pop maximized that angle, not only using it to win game 5, but then keeping the Rockets guessing until game 6, and just when the Rockets relax, his guys pounce and go for the kill. It was textbook psychological warfare, and the mentally weak Rockets (or Harden) fell for it. 

The good news (for gamblers) is that the Warriors just saw what happened, and will be ready on Sunday. Warriors win by DD with or without Leonard. The only angles worth considering for that game are 1) how the Spurs humiliated the Warriors at home in the first game of the regular season, and 2) how the Warriors lost game of the WCF to the Thunder last year (and the uphill clime they had because of it).

 
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Posted: #74
Spurs can easily upset game 1 or 2 -- actually take that back -- Spurs will win game 1 or 2
 
 
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